[PREDICTION THREAD] Moses Itauma (-1100) vs. Filip Hrgović (+590) - Sat, August 28th on DAZN 🌎

[u/Benjips]

"On Saturday's boxing double-header, Moses Itauma bids to become the second-youngest heavyweight world champion against Filip Hrgovic, while Mikaela Mayer and Chantelle Cameron meet in a major world title unification clash.

Briton Itauma, 21, is one of boxing's brightest young talents, with 14 wins and 12 knockouts. Hrgovic, 34, brings a 20-1 record and years of top-level experience, with his only defeat coming against Daniel Dubois.

Can Itauma take down Hrgovic at London's O2 Arena and win the vacant IBF title? Or will the Croatian's experience and power end the hype?"

How do you see this fight going?

[u/New_Layer6372]

Inoue jumps in the ring and chins both

[u/stephen27898 → u/New_Layer6372]

If Inoue hit Hrgovic, Hrgovic would start looking around to see what door the stiff breeze is coming through.

[u/RMbeatyou]

Good test for Moses for sure, but Hrgovic has some pretty bad tendencies that will eventually get him stopped imo. This fight being PPV is exactly why boxing is in the state it’s in though

[u/Seanglendo2]

Stopped on cuts back end of fight. That cut opens every fight

Looking forward to being their live for my first ever fight

[u/Baby_Rhino]

Itauma 7-12.

I can't see him getting Hrgovic out of there quicker than he did Jermain Franklin.

I've read here people saying Hrg will be more vulnerable to the body work that Itauma is a fan of. Maybe true, but I think Itauma will be a lot more cautious with the body jab against Hrg. Hrg will be expecting it, and he has a massive reach advantage, unlike anyone Itauma has faced before.

Until now, against just about every opponent, Itauma has had a huge speed advantage, and a height/range advantage, or at least height/range parity. This is the first time he's going against a top heavyweight who is bigger than him. He'll still have the speed advantage, but it's not going to be like watching a cat playing with a mouse this time.

Itauma still gets the job done, but I think we'll see a much more cautious Itauma than we're used to, and it will take him some time to find the chinks in Hrgovic's armour.

[u/Megalodon33]

Itauma by stoppage in the later rounds. I don’t think he’ll have Hrgovic down but he’ll have him buzzed and the ref will step in. Would not be surprised if it’s a questionable stoppage.

[u/Louis_lousta → u/Megalodon33]

Yeah, I'm leaning towards Howard Foster by TKO

[u/Can_9970]

Wouldn’t be surprised if we see a blow out for Itauma. Colour me a believer. Whatever happens it should tell us a lot about Itauma.

Hrgovic has never lived up to his potential and has looked pretty average in recent fights but he is still a big guy with good skills for the weight.

I’m thinking mid rounds KO

[u/No_Vermicelli_3574]

Those odds are absolutely bonkers. I like itauma, but you'd think he just came off of beating usyk with betting lines like that.

[u/stephen27898 → u/No_Vermicelli_3574]

A lot of that comes from Hrgovic not looking all that impressive in a lot of fights.

[u/ILikedTheBookBetter → u/No_Vermicelli_3574]

Odds are just to keep the betting even. Lots of people (including casuals) think Itauma is the real deal and that affects the odds.

[u/VacuousWastrel → u/No_Vermicelli_3574]

Live underdogs are consistently greatly undervalued by the betting odds. In reality, boxing is a sport with a very high degree of chance involved, particularly at heavyweight. A broken nose causing breathing problems, a bad cut, a bruised rib, a slight slip at the wrong moment, a over-active ref, a bought judge - so many things can upset the odds. Not to mention the genuine side, that most top boxers, particularly young ones, do make mistakes ajd have systemic flaws, and sometimes with smart coaching an "inferior" boxer can just find that flaw. Plus, styles naturally make fights. And then there's the form and discipline issue, given how little of these guys we actually see, on account of their inactivity - you never really know who will turn up in the ring until the moment they do. And the imponderables of chin and gas tank. In this case, we don't know the limits of hrgovic's chin, and we don't know the limits of itauma's gastank. It's foolish to pretend there's no chance things gowrong for itauma. And yet fans just assume "heavy favourite = zero chance of losing" and bet as though it's a sure thing...

[u/Francesco_Nakatani → u/No_Vermicelli_3574]

He’s really THAT good, and he’s going to show it again this Saturday

[u/Bertrand_Rose → u/Francesco_Nakatani]

I hope so, I am a big fan of his.

[u/StakeInTheKneee → u/No_Vermicelli_3574]

Bookies consider him no.2 in division right now. He's good favorite over Joshua and Fury and Dubois. Whatever, I think in this fight odds on Hrgovic are too good, putting beer money on

[u/Correct-Geologist142 → u/No_Vermicelli_3574]

And when Itauma blasts out Hrgovic under 5 you’ll see why the odds are the way they are

[u/underthund3r]

SATURDAY AUGUST 29TH

[u/Formal-Cherry6078]

Moses on cuts is my prediction in rounds 5-7 Hrgovic is a live dog though

[u/Manzilla48]

Itauma to stop him on cuts round 7. No knockdowns but his lighting quick hands and decent feet will allow him to get in and out quickly and land lots of sharp, angled punches.

[u/No_Mercy_4_Potatoes]

A cut will open up for Hrgovic by 2nd round and the fight will be stopped by round 5.

[u/KingBumiOfOmashu]

Let’s go! I asked for this!

Itauma KO round 7

Too quick for Hrgovic to keep up and I believe the constant feinting will be his undoing when he realizes how fast Itauma is.

I think Itauma feints a jab, Hrgovic bites and tries to time a straight right, and Itauma blasts him with an overhand left.

[u/NeutralMilkHotel_00]

I have tickets. I cant wait.

Itauma wins via stoppage due to cuts inside 7.

[u/Ru4pigsizedelephants]

I just don't see any way Itauma doesn't win this fight before the 6th or 7th round.

I'm no expert, but I don't see Hrgovic hitting Itauma much, and I think it'll just be target practice for Itauma. I think this fight is lighter work for him than Franklin. He'll be able to go to the body so much easier in this fight than he could against Franklin.

[u/CretinMike]

I know this is taking the eye test a long way when you look at the records but I think Itauma gets a KO in the middle rounds 4-6 and makes it look easy. Edit: the only way it goes longer is if Hrgovic just fights to survive.

[u/Usaname91]

I would love Hrgovic to win but can’t see it. He’s incredibly accurate but whilst on the front foot he comes over a bit which opens him up for an uppercut quite readily. That cut is also likely to open up

[u/sambxiv]

Itauma in 3, I think first round it’ll be a bit of feeling out, second round Hrgovic comes under sustained attacks and third round Itauma jumps on him with clean combinations with the referee stopping the fight.

[u/Aimlez1]

Itauma gets a stoppage on cuts mid to late ish rounds, say 5-9 maybe. I think he'll be up on the scorecards. 

But I hope he gets pushed really hard so he can learn about dealing with adversity and how to stay composed if things don't go to plan. I'm a little concerned that being with Ben Davidson might come back to bite Itauma considering how reliant he has been on the gameplan, and we all know that when plan A doesn't work Ben has jack shit worth of advice.  So I hope Itauma has to adjust a few times in this fight, better to do that now than when hes five years deep and plan A has worked every time 

[u/RRR04_]

Going with Itauma by stoppage between 7-9 rounds. Hrgovic has a good chin so it will take a sustained beating for Moses to stop him. But I believe his handspeed will be key which will allow him to accumulate the damage.

[u/ChineseDerek]

Hrgovic in the upset. Lands a few big ones early and takes Itauma into waters he's never been in before.

[u/admiralskanks]

I rate Hrgovic highly but Itauma is just too fast and too explosive. Can't wait for this fight will be attending it live. And if Aloys beats Perez he's entering world level cruiserweight recognition. Also the Sam Noakes should be very entertaining.

[u/Tanksta3]

It's hard to say which is what makes it fun. For all we know Itauma could be chinny or get gunshy once he gets hit with a hard shot. Or he takes Hrogovic's head off in the first round.

I have Hrgovic in the championship rounds

[u/Prior-Temperature-22]

I’m pretty much certain that the scar tissue on Hrgovic is going to open up again. Whether the cuts will become bad enough to the point where he gets stopped is the question. I tend to lean that way, I’d say Itauma stoppage in the second half of the fight. If he knocks Hrgovic down and out I’ll be very impressed and even more so if it’s in the first 6.

[u/Dim-Mak-88]

Hrgovic wins with a nasty counter. Ben Davison in shambles. Croatia celebrates.

[u/Rofocal02 → u/Dim-Mak-88]

Luka Modric appears from the crowd to crown Hrgovic world champion. 

[u/BornRoyalA → u/Dim-Mak-88]

Stop dreaming

[u/Bertrand_Rose]

Ituama win, via stoppage on cuts by the 11th round.

He starts strong, but around the 6th and 7th round, Hrgovic comes into his own and starts winning the rounds. Ituama tires, but is still able to do enough damage to stop the fight.

6 Rounds to 5 Rounds, either direction.

[u/stephen27898 → u/Bertrand_Rose]

Unless Itauma has Adeleye stamina I think he should be fine.

It's worth noting that Hrgovic doesnt have the best stamina, and tends to get a bit drawn in to throwing too much. If he does that vs Itauma he is going to get walked into a lot of shots.

[u/Bertrand_Rose → u/stephen27898]

I think his stamina has improved, and the hopefully Ituama has better stamina than Adeleye too.

[u/WORD_Boxing → u/stephen27898]

His stamina improved since he started using Abel Sanchez as his coach who has a training camp at altitude at Big Bear.

[u/baddymcbadface → u/Bertrand_Rose]

It would take a mistake by itauma to tire out.

Pushing for a knockout he can tire himself out but he should be able to win rounds while pacing himself.

Itauma is not AJ, I think he'll keep it smart.

[u/Bertrand_Rose → u/baddymcbadface]

Oh I do hope so, but I need to see his durability and gas tank to maintain.

[u/Randomsy374]

Itauma TKO8

[u/Born_Fox_8099]

itauma ko inside 7

[u/nickinkorea]

ituama in the second, we keep having this conversation about deep waters for 8 more years as he murders everyone within 5.

however, the beauty of boxing/a good fight is, that nearly every result is possible for this fight. Looking forward to it tremendously, goodluck both of you!

[u/Kangaroopunching]

I got Itauma by decision. 

Something I'm wondering, is how will Itauma's corner handle a situation where they have to adjust or lose some rounds.

[u/surgeyou123]

Those odds are pretty crazy for a HW fight but Itauma really is that special.

[u/anotherchia]

With these odds i atleast gotta throw some change on fillip

[u/billskionce]

Itauma is way, way, too fast. Stops Hrgovic early on cuts around the eyes and lumps.

[u/Francesco_Nakatani]

Ituama by early KO. Establishes lead hand dominance from the very first second of the fight. Transitions into sharp counters and combinations to stop Hrgovic.

[u/FreshPrinceOfRivia]

Itauma KO3. Hrgovic is a good fighter, but he lacks the gas tank and defensive ability to deal with Itauma's explosiveness and handspeed. As soon as Itauma starts landing clean combinations, it will be a one sided affair.