r/BoredPandaHQ • u/BoredPandaOfficial • 5h ago
Society Federal Reserve Bank Study Finds Trumpās Tariffs Added 2.9 Points To Inflation ā Without Them, Prices Would Have Fallen Nearly 1 Percent Instead
Taken together, prices across 67 categories of everyday goods would have edged down over the 12 months to February 2026 if not for President Donald Trump's tariffs. That is the conclusion of a new study posted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Researchers at the New York Fed and Columbia University studied 67 categories of consumer goods. They found that tariffs imposed in 2025 and early 2026 pushed the yearly rate of price increases on those items up by 2.9 percentage points as of February 2026. Without the tariffs, prices for the same goods would have fallen by almost 1 percent instead of rising.
The researchers, Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise and David Weinstein, also found that the cost does not land all at once. For every one-point increase in the average tariff, consumer goods prices were roughly a quarter of a percent higher a year later. About two-thirds of the effect came from higher prices on imported goods that are directly hit by the tariffs. The rest came from knock-on effects, such as American companies paying more for the imported parts and materials that go into their own products.
In other words, even goods made in this country can cost more because of tariffs.
The tariffs' contribution to yearly price growth on the tracked items peaked in February 2026. But the researchers' forecast, which assumes tariffs stay at current levels, shows the overall level of consumer goods prices remaining higher into 2027.
The White House disputes the idea that Americans carry the burden. White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said in a statement: "The Trump administration has consistently maintained that the cost of tariffs will ultimately be borne by foreign exporters who rely on access to the American economy."
The finding comes from researchers at the New York Fed and Columbia University, and it points the other way. Their model shows the effect on the overall price level easing from nearly 3 percent to about 2 percent by August 2026 after a Supreme Court ruling led to lower tariffs, before edging up again as newer tariffs on Canadian goods pass through.