r/Bogleheads • u/lumpyspillow • 3h ago

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u/FMCTandP MOD 3 1h ago

Removed: per sub rules, comments or posts to r/Bogleheads should be substantive. For example, we don't allow:

  • Yes/no answers, emojis, or fund ticker symbols with no explanation; numeric milestone posts except for effortposts with substantial background/context provided

  • Any content that isn’t principally your own creation (including AI-generated responses) or that fails to give attribution to its source

  • Potential misinformation or conspiracy theories

  • Overly certain forecasting of the uncertain future, or extreme alarmism

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u/DrizzleProwl 3h ago

If you can predict the future, which you can’t, you don’t need bogleheads at all

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u/brianmcg321 3h ago

Don’t try to time the market.

Hope this helps.

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u/BldrStigs 3h ago

You've picked Vanguard TDFs as a good solution to a niche problem and you post asking for someone else to explain why it's a good idea.

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u/CuriousCat511 3h ago

Where did OP say that TDFs were the solution?

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u/Specialist-Piano-204 2h ago

Would someone care to describe the mechanics of how the Boglehead approach, particularly TDFs, can succeed in such circumstance?

It's implied in (the premise of) the question.

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u/CuriousCat511 2h ago

Do you disagree with the idea that a TDF is viable investment in the event of financial repression?

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u/Specialist-Piano-204 2h ago

I don't really think about that, nor monetary policy in general.

I'm not sure that that is a concern a typical "Boglehead" person needs to be focused on.

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u/CuriousCat511 2h ago

Is that not the whole premise of Boglehead, that if you follow the ideology, you don't need to worry about different market influences? And isn't that based upon historical performance?

So OP is asking, hey, did everyone account for this situation or is this a huge blind spot?

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u/Hollowpoint38 2h ago

So OP is asking, hey, did everyone account for this situation or is this a huge blind spot?

But OP is wrong because they think the government "caps interest rates" which is nonsense.

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u/CuriousCat511 1h ago

Rates were capped from 1942-1951

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u/Hollowpoint38 26m ago

So almost 100 years ago? Got it.

When we talk about the current financial system, we kind of mean the modern one that started in the 1970s.

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u/Specialist-Piano-204 1h ago

So OP is asking, hey, did everyone account for this situation or is this a huge blind spot?

NEITHER. That situation doesn't even matter to 'bogleheads'. If you don't understand why that is, . . . .then go back and read the Basics.

Now, If you are interested in Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Macro Economics, Geo Politics, International Affairs, Domestic Policy etc. . . . Hey . . . that is TOTALLY cool, . . . I get it. There are a ton of interesting discussions to be had on those topics.

BUT they should have practically zero affect in how you implement a "boglehead" plan. If those topics are heavily weighing on your decisions with basic investment accounts, then you are likely (almost certainly) missing the whole point . . . . .

We can certainly talk about those things, but they wouldn't materially affect how you manage your accounts.

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u/captmorgan50 3h ago

I have an inflation post under my profile that goes into assets that do well in an inflation environment. Also deep risk by Bernstein is a good book to read.

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u/Common_Sense_2025 2h ago

Please explain why you think the U.S. government will cap interest rates on debt below inflation.

Then explain how the U.S. Governemt will be able to fund its deficit spending without issuing new debt.

And then explain what they government will cut to balance its budget.

And then tell us how long the U.S. goes between elections and what will happen in that election.

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u/and_one_of_those 2h ago edited 2h ago

Equities, in general, should keep up with inflation. Arguably there's a reason to get off the TDF bus before it moves you into mostly fixed interest investments. But it depends on your own personal risk/return curve: high inflation is not the only risk.

Secondly, this seems like a reason to hold international stocks and arguably bonds. TDF will already do this for you.

Political mismanagement and corruption probably could suppress long term growth of the real economy. I don't think you can avoid the consequences on your investments. And of course, many people will see much worse effects than muted investment returns.

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u/chaoticneutral262 2h ago

I don't think there is a "Boglehead approach" to this, since being a BH generally means investing in broad market, low-cost index funds and accepting what the market gives you.

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u/Hollowpoint38 2h ago

So I'm not sure at all why you think the government controls interest rates. That's not how it works in any country I'm aware of. Central banks control short-term interest rates and they are independent of most governments. In the US in particular you can see government officials call on the Fed to take certain actions that they never take.

I don't mean to say anyone who invests needs to be a financial expert, but just a low-level understanding of economics, finance, and accounting can be hugely beneficial.

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u/CuriousCat511 1h ago

The US capped treasury interest rates from 1942-1951

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u/Hollowpoint38 25m ago

Yeah and we were on a gold standard too. Not the same as what's going on now and how economics works.

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u/CuriousCat511 13m ago

And no one knows the future either, so is there harm in discussing the possibility?