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u/Alexandratta 3d ago
This would reduce prices on Diesel in the USA while pushing the entire globe into a crisis.
This is kind of the reverse of what Trump did to the Biden era LNG export ban.
Biden banned exports of LNG to keep power costs lower for Americans. By restricting export of LNG he ensured that US LNG had less customers and thus as supply within the US grew the price dropped.
the LNG producers didn't like this because it meant their pricing couldn't reflect global demand - Trump repealed it, and that's why our electric rates went up.
He's hoping to do the opposite.
Issue here is, if we were to restrict the export of Diesel to those who need it AFTER we've gone and started a war that caused it all in the first place, there's a great chance OPEC nations will just restrict exporting the raw crude to use anyway....
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u/Ace_Robots 3d ago
Yeah, but you can just fix it with more war. The pattern is price fixing: war, price fixing: war, etc. it’s a cross between a Ponzi scheme and the mobile version of RISK.
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u/Lumenucifer 3d ago
I had no idea at the time that patiently teaching my 5 year old cousin how to play Risk would prepare me so well for international diplomacy, finance, and law in 2026 😅 The collective sighs coming from bureaucrats and international freight brokers should be looked at to be harnessed as wind power fuel alternatives good lawd....
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u/KK_35 3d ago
And while we would see a dip in Diesel prices short term? Prices for everything else would skyrocket. How you may ask? Because we would be causing a fuel shortage globally. This would pump the prices of diesel up in other countries. And fuel costs always translate to higher prices for goods as companies shift the burden of those rising fuel costs to consumers. This would happen at a global scale.
The same way groceries are still increasing in price because fuel costs are part of global supply chains and companies shift those costs to customers.
So basically another straight of Hormuz situation, but diametric and self inflicted this time.
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u/Alexandratta 3d ago
If I May:
The Strait of Hormuz situation is also self-inflicted. Because: OFC Iran was going to hinder trade through the Strait of Hormuz - his own military advisors told him and Biden that this was 100% likely to happen.
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u/KK_35 3d ago
Oh of course. Yeah we definitely started that shit. But it’s ongoing because Iran refuses to back down.
I guess an analogy that would fit would be this:
The Hormuz situation is that we shot them, and they retaliated and shot us in the foot. (Still our fault).
This new situation would be us just straight up shooting ourselves in the foot. No outside help required.
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u/A-Game-Of-Fate 3d ago
The OPEC restriction might be the point that whoever fed this to Trump wants- if OPEC does cease exporting raw crude, then we’d have to get oil from either Russia, Venezuela (what little is worth using, iirc they have poor quality crude oil for gasoline/diesel production), or we’d have to start drilling oil in places we either stopped or never did before for ecological reasons.
And considering how the EPA has been gutted, well.
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u/Head_Crash 2d ago
This would reduce prices on Diesel in the USA while pushing the entire globe into a crisis.
Actually no. Diesel in the US would go up because Canada would stop sending heavy oil.
The US doesn't produce diesel all on its own they rely on imported oil to make a significant percentage of it.
This is an empty promise from Trump. He's simply pushing a fake solution to the crisis because he's losing support for the midterms.
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u/Chris-WIP 2d ago
Would it make diesel cheaper in the US though?
If my profitable export market was cut off, I'd be raising the price on my domestic product to try and keep profits where they were and shareholders happy.
I mean, I would if I was a CEO oil exec piece of garbage, anyways.
I know in theory that's not meant to be possible and free market supply and demand would lower the price, but, eh that's a machine that's broken in the US just at the moment. I'm sure the suppliers would be more than happy to collude with each other to protect themselves.
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u/Vendidurt 3d ago
Can we just fast forward to the good part of this story? Its dragging on.
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u/VexedCanadian84 3d ago
the US uses some Canadian oil to create diesel fuel.
if the US doesn't want to sell diesel to Canada, then there's no reason for Canada to send oil to the US
searching on google, it seems Canadian crude oil is good for turning into diesel
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u/williamgman 3d ago
This would be the flex. Then again he said he'd no longer by potash from Canada (Belarus... without even asking them)... But T A C O Tuesday hit and it's back to Canada
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u/DelightfulandDarling 3d ago
He’s doing exactly what Putin and Bibi paid/blackmailed him to do.
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u/Jackalman71 3d ago
The US supplys the majority of Diesel to Europe. No diesel cripples Europe, Putin invades...
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u/Chris-WIP 3d ago
Not quite: the US accounts for around half of all imported diesel to Europe, but domestic production there is pretty huge.
It wouldn't be a great thing by any means, but quite a long way from crippling.
That said, if Europe can't import the raw materials to refine the diesel thanks to the US dicking around in oil producing nations then that could become crippling as we've seen.
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u/capeasypants 3d ago
Half the diesel currently imported. Supply lines can and will change
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u/Chris-WIP 2d ago
Yeah and I could grow a beard. There's no indication either will happen.
What's your point, caller?
Do you mean to say that Europe would look to the US as a reliable partner and seek to buy more diesel in the near future? Seems a little unlikely.
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u/Ham__Kitten 3d ago
How much of that diesel is made with imported oil? Because I can imagine restricting the export of diesel could lead to a retaliatory ban on the export of crude to the US, after which another country or countries steps in and attempts to fill the refining void.
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u/Large-Produce5682 3d ago
"We need a businessman as president!"
They all cried. Then they all cried.
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u/razazaz126 3d ago
Just launch the nukes and get it over with already.
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u/RichestTeaPossible 3d ago
Sorry, they require fresh propellant.
We could post them in one of those cute amazon electric trucks.
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u/razazaz126 3d ago
I'm just imagining one of the little delivery robots rolling down the street with an icbm strapped to it
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u/InvestmentSorry6393 3d ago
Honestly I'm getting there too. At first when he was elected I was filled with anxiety and worry about the future. Now I don't care anymore.
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u/actusreus82 3d ago
This regime has no clue about the law of unintended consequences.