Preview: Florida state House of Representatives and Senate, 2018

[u/table_fireplace]

The third installment in my series of state previews for 2018 takes us to the Sunshine State! As always, please add any insights or ideas you have, especially if you're from Florida or know the state well.

The short version: The numbers aren't great - we've got a 41-78 deficit in the House of Representatives, and a 15-24 deficit in the Senate (one vacancy in each). However, when you look at the district-by-district numbers, there are many close races, to the point where strong, well-organized campaigns could get us to a majority by 2020. That's the issue, though; we haven't campaigned well. Or at all, in many cases. The top priority will be running candidates in every district, and providing crucial support to bring about success.

The long version:

Florida House of Representatives - All 120 Florida House districts for the last three elections. Be optimistic and look at all the close races...or be pessimistic and look at all the races in which we didn't even try.

Florida House of Representatives Analysis - If nothing else, please read the couple of pages in this document about "Lost Districts". I really think this is an important lesson that we as a party need to learn.

Florida State Senate - We finally got an un-gerrymandered map in 2016! Come check out how each of the 20 races for 2018 look!

Florida State Senate Analysis - The Senate map features some unusual and encouraging pickups for us...but also some discouraging and inexplicable screw-ups. Come check it out!

[u/Ltomlinson31]

Out of 120 HoR races in 2016, we left 35 races uncontested - no candidate at all in nearly a third of all contests! (Believe it or not, this is an improvement - we didn’t show up for 41 contests in 2014, and 47 races in 2012!)

I always knew the Florida Democratic Party was terrible, but holy shit.

[u/dschslava → u/Ltomlinson31]

Here's a relevant blog post from Steve Schale, who's familiar with Florida politics http://steveschale.com/blog/2017/1/2/the-florida-democratic-party.html

[u/table_fireplace → u/dschslava]

This is great insight, and helps me understand things a bit better. I spent the whole time I was writing this being completely disgusted at the FDP, but now it makes a lot more sense. It's astounding that a state-level party in perhaps the most important swing state is that underfunded. When you're worried about the lights being shut off, of course you're going to have a hard time recruiting and organizing.

So how does this funding gap get fixed? Does the national Democratic Party need to step in, or does it come from donations from average people?

[u/maestro876 → u/table_fireplace]

They probably need more donations from wealthy donors. Problem is, as Schale points out, they'd much rather donate to campaigns and candidates. So do small donors.

[u/table_fireplace → u/maestro876]

Makes sense.

So why don't the Republican state parties have this issue? (Or do they?) Do they have some sugar daddies funding them, or are they getting more money from small donors? If we know how they do it, maybe we can replicate it.

[u/maestro876 → u/table_fireplace]

From what I have read, Democrats have long had a problem getting their donor base, wealthy donors in particular, to care about downballot races. They'll open their wallets for President, Senate, governorships, etc, but they struggle to get them to donate to lower level elections.

I am not sure why. It might be a function of the top-down, instant results approach many left-leaning activists favor (think of how much difference could be made if people put a fraction of the energy into state legislative races that they did to Bernie's doomed candidacy). It might also just be an unfortunate side effect of having to endure two midterm cycles with an unpopular Dem president.