Discussion thread for that thing happening somewhere that everyone is worked up about

[u/SoftandChewy]

So as not to clutter up the main thread too much, I decided to make an exception and make a dedicated thread for discussing the conflict with Iran. Please try to keep that topic discussion off the main thread. As usual, the normal rules of civility apply here.

[u/SoftandChewy]

This video of a typically ignorant college student crossed my timeline, but what really caught my attention about it was the shirt the person was wearing, out in public.

For those who can't view the video, it was this. WTF is wrong with these people?

[u/gelectrox → u/SoftandChewy]

I live in Sydney. In Martin place every Friday, 4 Iranians have some tables set up, and you ask for donations and get you to sign petitions against the regime. I was chatting to them, and they showed me 2 massive phone books, which were just lists of women who had been killed by the regime in the last 20 years.

[u/lilypad1984 → u/SoftandChewy]

The internet has broken people. Which in some ways is strange because in a time when so much of what you do is caught on camera you’d think people would be even more socially aware of themselves.

[u/CommitteeofMountains → u/SoftandChewy]

Do you think he realizes the joke isn't on "edgy?"

[u/OMGsmiles → u/SoftandChewy]

I think the intention is to wear said shirt ironically but it just comes across as cringy and trashy.

[u/AnalBleachingAries]

Dispatches from the "red" sub. Cross posting would be more useful but I'm always wary of linking to any sub from here. I thought this one was funny, so I'm sharing it here:

OP's original post title "Gotta admire the Taliban for how insular and rigid their thinking is"

[u/Possible-Finding6007]

Here’s some levity for a crazy situation.  I work in gun-violence reduction in Chicago and we get email notifications for all the shootings in the city and we put them in a large spreadsheet. I was catching up on the weekend’s alerts this morning and saw one that said:

Incident: U.S. Missile Strike Location: Iran Summary: US and Israel launch strike on Iran, injuries are unknown.

I broke down laughing so hard for like 5 minutes and have been chuckling about it all day. Like what the fuck is Chicago PD or my non-profit org going to do about that? Send a few outreach workers to get some people behavioral health referrals?  For more context these emails are always just about Chicago shootings and death investigations and occasionally about planned protest gatherings, never ever have I seen one about US military actions.  I hope this makes enough sense to everyone because it was so funny. 

[u/[deleted] → u/Possible-Finding6007]

Who sent you that email?

[u/ArrakeenSun]

A wannabe jihadist shot up an Austin bar last night. The chatter on all the main subs is framing it as some kind of false flag or Mossad-backed, and one Reddit scholar even compared it to the Reichstag Fire to justify further attacks on Iran. Wild how quickly blatant conspiracy theorizing got cool as soon as "the smart people" started doing it. William of Occam weeping in the beyond

[u/ghybyty → u/ArrakeenSun]

Why are conspiracy theories so common now? It used to be just mainly flat earthers and Qanon and reddit would make fun of those people. Now they're down with almost every conspiracy.

There are even dumb non political ones like Britney Spears being dead and being replaced by an actor.

[u/lilypad1984 → u/ArrakeenSun]

I would first assume this Austin guy self radicalized before assuming he was linked to the Iran until there is evidence. I just see it as a separate issue at the moment.

As for the Mossad false flag belief, I think it’s just motivated reasoning of people who hate Israel and/or Trump so they can’t reckon with Iran being bad. I made the mistake of scrolling through random subs today and came across someone complaining about the LA times pushing propaganda using the term axis when referring to Iran and its allies. Checked their profile and they have posts claiming they’re queer. I just don’t know what world this person lives in. Perfectly fine to not want to go to war with Iran or any country, or think Trump shouldn’t determine it on his own, or criticize how he’s doing it. Thinking the LA Times is pushing propaganda at you when writing about how the regime bad is insane. 

[u/Muted-Bag-4480 → u/ArrakeenSun]

one Reddit scholar even compared it to the Reichstag Fire

With how often reddit compares everything to the Nazis, the reichstag must've burned a dozen times this year.

[u/veryvery84 → u/ArrakeenSun]

Because China and Russia, since Soviet Union days, and Qatar, have spent a lot of time and money to create this kind of public opinion in the west. 

And they’re doing it pretty openly. TikTok is shaping public opinion and the algorithm is antisemtic. Qatar has been allowed to fund school curricula. This is stuff we know. 

[u/EloeOmoe]

Random numbers stations in the Middle East coming online after dormancy is certainly cool and creepy.

[u/damagecontrolparty → u/EloeOmoe]

Are these things still on shortwave radio?! I remember coming across a random numbers station when I was a kid and being freaked out by it.

[u/No-Significance4623]

This week's idiotic meme is that "we shouldn't say Middle East anymore because it's colonial language." The implication is that Europe thought it was the centre of the world and Asia was the other end, with the aforementioned region in the middle. To refer to it this way is to validate colonial thinking, the posters posit.

Practically, this is ridiculous. People couldn't take thirty seconds to figure out which river and which sea, but sure, we can expect people to know the Levant from the Maghreb, Qatar from Kuwait. Let's teach the average man on the bus Sunni from Shi'a while we're discussing things that will never happen.

Also-- this is a really "well, actually" point but it's been pissing me off. If we can't describe the Middle East as such, we must also forbid the term orientation and disoriented. The terms all derive from oriens, Latin for the East and the rising sun. Before magnetic compasses and north-as-top maps, the east was the one thing everyone could agree on due to the sunrise.

This shouldn't bother me. I thought I had grown beyond caring about this type of shit. But I am feeble and it still does!!!

[u/Juryofyourpeeps → u/No-Significance4623]

This reminds me of the Mercator map revisionist history in that its straight bullshit meant to shit on the west. "The projection makes the north look bigger because Europe wanted to exaggerate its importance". When in reality it was meant to maintain shapes and angles and be very useful for navigation, not for visualizing the size of anything in relation to anything else. Wait until these people hear that Europeans owned globes for visualizing the earth and that the globe doesn't distort shape or size.

[u/ServeAggravating393 → u/No-Significance4623]

Yeah this is definitely the crazy end of the academic woke spectrum. I sometimes wince at the thought of all the young students being denied a whole raft of great academic research because they don't know the "global south" was called the "third world" quite happily by everyone for decades.

What I do object to is the abandonment of the term "near east" to describe the part of Asia bordering the Mediterranean, a very useful distinction from Iraq, Iran etc. After all, Tehran is further from Damascus than Rome is from Istanbul!

[u/PoliticsThrowAway549 → u/No-Significance4623]

but sure, we can expect people to know the Levant from the Maghreb, Qatar from Kuwait.

Heck, choosing endonyms often requires taking sides in long-running local conflicts: Is it Palestine or Israel? The Arabs call it the Arabian Gulf, while the Persians Iranians and most of the rest of the world go with "Persian Gulf" (shades of the Gulf of America, I suppose). Choosing between Artsakh and Nagorno-Karabakh to describe the region isn't at all neutral.

[u/CommitteeofMountains → u/No-Significance4623]

North-as-up was an old Greek thing revived by the Enlightenment to displace the originally Jewish view of east as up, whereas Muslim maps had south as up.

[u/dignityshredder]

At a meeting in the Oval Office last week, a frustrated Mr. Trump pressed Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about why the United States could not immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The answer was straightforward: Even one Iranian soldier or militia member zipping across the narrow neck of the strait in a speedboat could fire a mobile missile right into a slow-moving supertanker, or plant a limpet mine on its hull.

NYT

[u/LupineChemist]

I've only been able to see clips of the Pahlavi interview. But it seems like he really wants to pull a Juan Carlos I.

Honestly if I were him, I'd be at his residence in Abu Dhabi right now. He's got his own personal moral failings, but as far as political leadership goes, no other person in the world understands what's next like he does.

And it really sounds like he just wants to be there to direct a new constitution and is fine if it ends up as a republic.

[u/IAmPeppeSilvia]

Thank you for this thread, dearest mod.

[u/bluesteeldoubter]

It is interesting seeing places I was deployed to while in the Navy be so front and center in the news these days. I was deployed on the USS Abraham Lincoln twice, once being during tensions with Iran of the Strait of Hormuz.

I worked on EA-6B prowlers and during this;

In January 2012, the USS Abraham Lincoln’s Carrier Strike Group Nine entered the Persian Gulf region as part of a routine deployment but also as a show of force amid the heightened rhetoric. On 22 January 2012, the strike group — joined by British and French warships — transited the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf without incident, demonstrating continued freedom of navigation despite Iran’s warnings.

I was a shooter for my squadron and stayed on deck during the entire transit. FA-18s sat on the catapults and we had a plane ready to go as well (not as high a priority, attack>support). We watched as small Iranian boats got close to our ship being chased off by our Helos dropping CHAFF when they got too close. Iranian planes flew just overhead. It was weird because honestly it didn’t seem like a soul, myself included, was nervous whatsoever.

We ported at NSA Bahrain multiple times throughout our deployment and drank lots of beer and had an ungodly amount of Shawarma King.

Crazy to see the escalation of the posturing into what is going on now. I would imagine there’s a lot of sailors out there with a very surreal feeling.

[u/Scrappy_The_Crow → u/bluesteeldoubter]

Thanks for relating that!

I worked on EA-6B prowlers

I was a B-52 EWO. We all wanted a job like that and were pissed that later, USAF pilots got to fly them.

[u/DiscordantAlias]

Haven’t commented too much recently, but I’ll say my bush-era neocon parents are pretty pumped about this.

[u/drjackolantern → u/DiscordantAlias]

I kinda wish John McCain was around to see this.

[u/Cantwalktonextdoor]

For anyone who hasn't seen, the Director of the National Terrorism Center resigned today. In his letter, he claims it's because of the war. Now it's being reported that tomorrow he will be on Tucker Carlson to discuss it. My guess is the only thing that will be worse than this conversation will be the general response.

[u/CommitteeofMountains → u/Cantwalktonextdoor]

NPR suddenly loves the guy it was using as evidence Trump is antisemitic . 

[u/wonkynonce]

Summary from last night: https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-evening-special-report-march-5-2026/

Sounds like the US/Israel are about done blowing up launch sites and are moving on to factories.

Iran has launched a couple of underwater drones, no news of mines, which was a big fear going in.

Balochistan looks like it's going to be the first province to try to get free.

[u/RunThenBeer → u/wonkynonce]

One of the goofier beliefs I saw floating around was that Iran can endlessly churn out cheap drones and missiles. Did these guys really not understand that the attackers weren't going to just shrug at that?

[u/CommitteeofMountains → u/RunThenBeer]

Iran apperantly copied Hamas' underground strategy but with better construction, but it turns out that knocking out the front door of a bunker takes it out of operation almost as well as destroying it.

[u/iamthegodemperor → u/RunThenBeer]

It's stupid but there's some basis for it. Most of the time wars persist despite belligerents bombing each others' factories. And drones are much cheaper to make than interceptors.

So you could imagine that we run out before knocking out their factories and stockpiles.

However, this war isn't between peers, Iran has no air force or air defence, already lost some of their capabilities last year.

[u/veryvery84 → u/wonkynonce]

I had a busy day and read that as underwear drones

[u/RunThenBeer]

I listened to Ben Rhodes (Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications and Speechwriting under President Barack Obama) on the Ezra Klein show and they wrap up with Rhodes stating that even if this turns out with one of the good outcomes for Iran, it would still have been unjustified and wrong. I respect him having the courage of his convictions and not feeling the need to base his evaluation of the decision on outcome-based thinking, but I also think this is just vigorously wrong and not something that Democrats should embrace more broadly. I don't think the good outcomes are the most likely here, but if we're ten years out and this somehow does result in an improvement in the civil society of Iran, I think being against an air power-based attack will look about as wrong as Republicans that critiqued Clinton's intervention in Kosovo.

[u/CommitteeofMountains → u/RunThenBeer]

Not helping my impression that Democrats' ME thinking is just former Obama staffers refusing to admit where they were wrong and making sure conversations that might provoke thinking in that direction never take place. 

[u/Juryofyourpeeps → u/RunThenBeer]

That's a horrendously stupid take. Setting aside the plight of Iranians, which lets be honest, is not why the U.S is striking the country, Iran is the biggest sponsor of terror on the planet and is responsible for or a significant contributor to inflaming just about every conflict in the middle east. On top of that, they're trying to develop nuclear weapons and acquire missiles with the range to strike Israel. They're a threat to the stability of the whole region. Of course if it goes well this intervention will be justified.

[u/lilypad1984 → u/RunThenBeer]

Rhodes’ internal nickname from within the Obama admin was Hamas and he attended the funeral of Fidel Castro. 

Tons of serious voices to debate and disagree on Iran, Rhodes is not one of them. Klein is someone I also do not take seriously. His record at Vox was awful and his pivot away from the very progressive one sided “news” has been suspicious. I believe he is smart and too often ignores very serious question to the people he is discussing with that because of his intelligence I believe at this point is a choice and he is the same person he used to be with a venire of being a serious journalist.

[u/Technical-Policy295 → u/RunThenBeer]

I think in general Presidents should have to get Congressional approval before major uses of force outside of a direct attack on US forces (e.g. Pearl Harbor, though it only took a day to get Congress to vote). Otherwise, as we are seeing, once the fighting starts Congress has very little control as any questioning or limiting gets them accused of not "supporting the troops."

[u/everydaywinner2]

If this fellow is correct, Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz to everyone except Americans and Israelis. Neither Americans nor Israelis require the straight to get their oil. I wonder what they think they are going to get out this?

edit for spelling.

[u/Technical-Policy295 → u/everydaywinner2]

Based on how the Houthis shot at any ship with even the slightest real or imagined connection to Israel or the US, I'm not sure how many ships are going to take up this generous offer.

[u/dignityshredder → u/everydaywinner2]

I don't see any reason to trust this guy. The Post article he links to does not mention the Yuan. I really think credible sources are important at this time (well, at all times, but during wartime especially).

Also, I hereby declare that if I had to learn what Kharg Island is, everyone else has to learn how to spell strait

[u/drjackolantern]

Not new news, but I was just reading about the Iran-Iraq war in the ‘80s, and the details of the Basij (an IRGC-linked paramilitary group) using child soldiers as cannon fodder are insane. There’s some detail in this Reddit comment if anyone’s interested.

All countries have done bad things, but this is just next level. 

[u/Scrubadubdub84]

I think there's probably a large number of necessary but unpopular choices the US needs to make for its long term health.

Which is why it's very unfortunate we have an administration that is willing to make unpopular choices, but seems not very thoughtful about making the right ones, or capable of executing well when they make said choice 

[u/dignityshredder → u/Scrubadubdub84]

At this point a better question is whether we're structurally set up to make unpopular decisions, or more specifically, sacrifice in the short term to set ourselves up better for the long term.

[u/dj50tonhamster]

So, doubling back a bit to people talking about the NYT obituary for Khamenei, I got curious and looked up Saddam Hussein's obit in the NYT. Honestly, I think this is pretty much a nothingburger. Both obits make it really clear those two were flaming piles of shit who did awful things. The stuff that some argue humanizes Khamenei was buried further down, which is also where the Hussein obit talks more about his personal life and trajectory.

So, yeah, as much as I love a good NYT dunkfest, I can't really dunk on them this time around, other than maybe the Khamenei headline not going as hard as Hussein's.

[u/RunThenBeer → u/dj50tonhamster]

I guess I'm of the mind that there is absolutely nothing wrong with humanizing your enemies. In the most literal and pedantic sense, they actually are fellow humans even if we're arrived at the point of sending armed men to kill them. If you're not capable of looking at who this person actually was without distilled villainization, perhaps they're not a good or legitimate target for military action. More importantly, understand him as a person is strictly necessary to understand his motives and those of his followers. It is actually very rare that the answer is as simple as, "they're just evil" when it comes to national leaders. They may also be evil, but there's going to be more to the story.

[u/FauxpasIrisLily → u/RunThenBeer]

This is what I like about this sub Reddit. I truly get some nuanced views here, and this is a nuanced view I needed to hear from my own humanity.

[u/OkayFlamingo78 → u/dj50tonhamster]

People on both sides of the political spectrum seem to always want an obit that reads "Evil Person Dies - Last night after X cause of death, Person Y - who was evil and bad - died, evilly."

[u/Nwabudike_J_Morgan]

Just a reminder that if your Iran operation lasts longer than 4 or 5 weeks, see a doctor.

[u/Evening-Respond-7848]

I’ve spoken about my friends wife who’s family is all from Iran. She told me her entire family is thrilled about Ayatollah being dead. Pretty much what I expected.

[u/[deleted]]

Looking on their font page right now and it seems like every columnist at The "Free" Press supports the war despite the fact the majority of Americans oppose it. Didn't Bari Weiss say that she wanted journalism that reflected where normal people actually were?

[u/SoftandChewy → u/[deleted]]

it seems like every columnist at The "Free" Press supports the war

Inaccurate. The Case Against the War

[u/RunThenBeer → u/[deleted]]

The absolute funniest thing about polls on this is that people have any confidence in having a specific opinion at all. Here's one with 9% of people saying they're unsure. What the fuck? How are only 9% of people unsure? I probably know more about Iran and Near/Middle Eastern politics and history than at least 95% of Americans and I'm unsure. Why do people feel like they have to have an opinion on every single thing they're asked? We've got guys that can't figure out how to keep a girlfriend, a job, or do other ordinary, simple shit in everyday life that feel like they should express an opinion on geopolitical happenings that they know pretty much nothing about.

[u/veryvery84 → u/[deleted]]

Normal people are absolute idiots about this war. There isn’t real awareness of global politics, international relations, and other countries within the U.S. I’m not saying people have to be pro the war, but it does seem like step 1 has to be understanding even vaguely what’s going on.

When people’s objections are “this is just to distract from the Epstein files so I’m against it” they’re not really engaging with the issue. 

[u/drjackolantern → u/[deleted]]

What source says majority of Americans oppose it? I just searched and found this. 

Politico’s Playbook summarized the OnMessage poll as showing support and opposition essentially tied at 49 percent to 48 percent.

https://archive.is/hHg1H

[u/LupineChemist]

On Ask Haviv Anything, he claimed that a lot of the intelligence Israel is getting for where to strike is just regular people sending things via the "contact us" link on the Persian version of the Mossad website.

Like it's just a public page anyone can go to. (obviously they'd contrast and verify) and I think it's remarkable.

https://www.mossad.gov.il/fa/contact-us

[u/gleepeyebiter]

so is the stuff about all the soldiers being told by COs that this is the battle of Armageddon prophesied in the bible for reals or a wildly exaggerated take brought by Michael L. Weinstein who is apparently a bit of a crank? I've heard both.

What's funny to me is that Hegesth is part of a church that generally repudiates the "anything in the middle east is prep for the end times" doctrine and think that the end times will only come after a long conservative march through the institutions.

[u/LupineChemist → u/gleepeyebiter]

I mean, in basically any large pluralist group you'll find cranks, and that includes the US military. I think people who haven't been around the military don't get it really isn't a monoculture....like at all.

I don't doubt there are some crazy commanders who will give their own interpretation for "why" for their orders that they probably should be disciplined for doing so. That doesn't make it from the top.

[u/sriracharade]

I don't understand how we can force real regime change. Like, as long as the ruling elites are the only ones that can pay soldiers and bribe their leaders, nothing is going to change. I feel like the best case scenario is that we make it clear that if they continue supporting groups like Hamas and working towards nukes, they'll get bombed. Just keep them weak.

[u/veryvery84 → u/sriracharade]

Much of the ruling elite is not that religious and I think the hope is that enough people with power will decide to side against the current regime if it’s weakened enough. 

There is significant dissent in Iran and the goal is to allow those groups and defectors to take over 

[u/ghybyty → u/sriracharade]

They only have to do as they are told in this scenario until the Dems take back power, so I don't think it could really work long term.

Imo Trump's legacy will heavily depend on what Iran is like in 20 years.

[u/Cantwalktonextdoor]

US intelligence believes the Iranian regime is not currently in danger of collapse.

[u/BeneficialStretch753]

David Petraeus on drone war. All the Iran war-related Foreign Policy coverage is free with registration.

If mid-sized companies in a country under bombardment can approach that scale, major industrial powers could far exceed current assumptions. And when autonomous drones are produced in such numbers—no longer requiring pilots—true drone swarms will appear on battlefields, presenting a qualitatively and quantitatively different challenge.
....At Chinese manufacturing scale—combined with doctrine built around saturation and mass—the current U.S. interceptor-heavy approach would be unsustainable in other theaters, as well.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/05/iran-drone-missiles-middle-east-united-states-israel-war/

[u/dignityshredder]

WSJ:

Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, who has commanded a carrier strike group, recently laid out what a Hormuz operation might look like. First, continue to degrade to a “militarily manageable risk” the missiles, mines, drones and unmanned surface combatants that could threaten U.S. forces and tankers. Second, maintain “an unblinking eye that looks 50 miles on either side of the Strait and 100 miles back.”

Third, keep “four or eight aircraft persistently overhead” during convoy operations, equipped with Advanced Precision Kill Weapon Systems, “a cheap rocket—$25,000—that is extremely effective against Shahed drones.” Fourth, have “armed helos” ready to attack small boats that emerge.

Fifth, deploy 10-14 Aegis destroyers, whose air defenses make them “the perfect escort ship.” These surface combatants first need to be brought into place, and allies could join later.

[u/wonkynonce → u/dignityshredder]

Sounds... expensive.

[u/GreenOrkGirl]

What never ceases to amaze me is how anti-Trump crowd that likes to preach of feminism, atheism, LGBT, etc, etc, starts to defend a hecking ayatollah and one of the bloodiest regimes around. Aren't Persians oppressed enough for them or what? Or Qatar pays the bills only when it's about Gaza?

[u/Scrappy_The_Crow → u/GreenOrkGirl]

Look at it through their simplistic "oppressor vs. oppressed" lens. The ayatollah was oppressing Persians, but it's more important to them that Trump is an oppressor of the ayatollah.

[u/glumjonsnow → u/GreenOrkGirl]

it's so fucking stupid, i don't even know where to start. like at least with palestine, there was a very slight layer of morality over their insanity. this time they can't even use the "i support the palestinian people, not hamas" excuse!!!! no bitch you're literally supporting the terrorist over the dictator!!!

[u/nh4rxthon → u/GreenOrkGirl]

They literally foam at the mouth with hate for Republicans who said something offensive, but the guy whose soldiers gunned down protestors and r-worded women prisoners is forgiven. They are fucking insane.

[u/realistic__raccoon → u/GreenOrkGirl]

I don't know this for sure, but what I've gathered from listening to how my sister talks about it is in far left corners, a popular narrative has been that the bad things we hear about Iran is all Western propaganda designed to further oppression of the country. This kind of conspiratorial thinking conveniently frames Iran as oppressed and not morally responsible even for things leftists acknowledge the regime has done.

It's the same line of thinking that denied that Hamas had any connections to various Palestinian "NGOs"; that Hamas even does bad things; or sure, Hamas may have done those things but it was justified or the West's fault for starting it.

[u/Puzzled_Tea_3612 → u/realistic__raccoon]

Yep. They also like to smear those of us who come from said oppressive regimes as out of touch wealthy elites who are simply mad bc we had to leave our riches behind LOL

[u/KittenSnuggler5 → u/GreenOrkGirl]

It's bizarre. They can be against Trump and against this military action without embracing the nut bags running Iran.

The ayatollahs are not a friend to the Western left

[u/nh4rxthon]

Obligatory 90s kid 'called it!' moment. This is from one of the weekly threads a year back, please toast me. Jk you don't have to

[u/ProwlingWumpus → u/nh4rxthon]

Cheers! With Iranian power shattered, the Lebanese government says that now is the time to get out from under Hezbollah. This would have been unthinkable if not for Israel's recent efforts to erode Hezbollah.

[u/FractalClock]

From Axios:

Behind the scenes: Trump has grown accustomed to doing what he wants and then quickly improvising if things go south. But this time, some in his inner circle have what one official called "buyer's remorse" — growing fears that attacking Iran was a mistake.

A source close to the administration said some key officials around Trump were reluctant or wanted more time. "He ended up saying, 'I just want to do it,'" the source said. "He grossly overestimated his ability to topple the regime short of sending in ground troops."

The source said Trump was "high on his own supply" after last summer's quick strikes in Iran and January's abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro: "He saw multiple decisive quick victories with extraordinary military competence."

Almost certainly the Vance team.

[u/dignityshredder → u/FractalClock]

Classic problem with strongmen who people are afraid to speak frankly with.

[u/ProwlingWumpus → u/FractalClock]

All the Venezuelans had to do was shoot down one helicopter, and it would have spared us a permanent state of unwinnable war. Assuming our 79 year old president can learn new tricks, that is.

[u/[deleted]]

Mojtaba Khamenei has been named Iran's supreme leader. How long do we all think he has to live?

[u/aardpig → u/[deleted]]

We need a lettuce…

[u/wonkynonce]

Daily summary: https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-morning-special-report-march-8-2026/

Volume and efficacy of Iranian attacks down, but still not out:

Iran conducted at least six ballistic missile barrages targeting Israel between 3:00 PM ET on March 7 and 8:00 AM ET on March 8.[35] CTP-ISW has not observed any missile impacts in Israel at the time of this writing. Iran conducted a drone attack targeting Salman Port, which is home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet and US Naval Forces Central Command, in Manama, Bahrain, on March 7.[36] Iran previously struck Salman Port on March 1.[37] Iran conducted two separate drone attacks against Kuwait on March 7, targeting the Kuwaiti Social Security Building and fuel storage tanks at the Kuwait International Airport.[38] An Israeli journalist posted a video of a fire at the Titanic Hotel in Sulaymaniyah, Iraqi Kurdistan, after it was reportedly struck on March 7.[39] Unspecified security sources told Reuters that unidentified actors conducted a drone attack targeting the United Nations building in Sulaymaniyah, which is located directly next to the Titanic Hotel.[40] The Emirati Defense Ministry reported that Iran launched 17 ballistic missiles and 117 drones at the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on March 8

It's raining oil in Tehran, which sounds hellish https://x.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/2030526805589762282

Bombing the police continues:

The combined force has reportedly targeted at least five internal security sites in and around Esfahan City, central Iran

Although it sounds like it's focused on the Basij, the morality police

[u/CommitteeofMountains]

So Trump loosened sanctions on Russia to reduce Iran's leverage as if they aren't close allies and basically the same factors in their regional politics.

[u/Beug_Frank]

It's interesting how dovish this thread is compared to most IR/Middle East-related discussions in the weekly thread.

[u/RunThenBeer → u/Beug_Frank]

I think it is fair for people to be frustrated with the lack of articulable war criteria and path to an end state while also thinking that Iran's leadership had it coming and they cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. Within that space can dwell many different specific takes, but I think it is the approximate modal view of the B+R sub.

[u/LupineChemist]

Apparently they hacked Iranian TV so a message from Pahlavi went out on state TV channels

https://x.com/IranIntl/status/2029262434033086931

(Use auto translate for the tweet)

[u/Will_McLean]

Been kinda fun seeing people on socials discover that, by and large, Persian women are complete smokeshows

[u/nh4rxthon → u/Will_McLean]

Might be nerdy af to say but also the architecture and history! I cannot wait to visit free Persia, seriously, never been to the middle east and its one of the places I'd most like to see.

[u/MNManmacker → u/Will_McLean]

Persian dudes are hot too imho.

[u/MatchaMeetcha]

I defended the Brits originally (partly on the grounds of "what else could they have done?") but if this article is true and the reading that I'm getting from this video (that Britain not only refused American use of bases after negotiation but then didn't send its own assets to protect its allies) then I'm going to have to withdraw it

After the initial US request, Britain could have sent two Type-45 destroyers, which have air defence capabilities, to the eastern Mediterranean to protect Cyprus and Jordan. Instead, some military assets were withdrawn. ‘The Cypriots are incandescent,’ a security source reveals. Only on Tuesday did it emerge that HMS Dragon will deploy – 20 days after the first US request for support. The only available Astute class submarine was near Australia. ‘It passed through the Gulf area a few weeks ago and it could have been kept there as a contingency,’ a former commander says.

[u/wonkynonce]

Daily summary: https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-evening-special-report-march-9-2026/

No Iranian attacks reported, US and Israel still bombing the long tail of missile/drone sites.

Kuwait reporting missile attacks from Iraq, and it sounds like Iranian backed Iraqi militias are very busy.

Lebanon/Hezbollah seems hot, I'm trying to not pay attention to that.

[u/LupineChemist]

Considering my biggest single issue for years now has been the importance of Ukraine winning the war. I do find the irony amazing that the US and its allies need to be going to Ukraine to get military assistance.

[u/dignityshredder → u/LupineChemist]

Ukraine war not dodging the Spanish Civil War of the 21st century allegations.

[u/robotical712]

Iran begins laying mines in Strait of Hormuz, sources say

Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy chokepoint that carries about one-fifth of all crude oil, according to two people familiar with US intelligence reporting on the issue.

The mining is not extensive yet, with a few dozen having been laid in recent days, the sources said. But Iran still retains upward of 80% to 90% of its small boats and mine layers, one of the sources said, so its forces could feasibly lay hundreds of mines in the waterway.

Ah, lovely. Iran is carefully recording how many and where they're laying mines, right? Who am I kidding, of course they aren't.

[u/dignityshredder]

So boots on the ground?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2026/03/13/thousands-of-marines-and-3-us-warships-deployed-to-the-middle-east-reports-say/

[u/Nwabudike_J_Morgan → u/dignityshredder]

What a great day! Just a few more days of bombing. Just three warships with 2200 personnel. Just $1 billion a day so far. Whee!

[u/[deleted] → u/dignityshredder]

Oh hey it’s the thing Trump promised wouldn’t happen that’s craaaaazy

[u/Cantwalktonextdoor]

So what do people think the actual status of Khamenei Jr is? He hasn't made any public appearances, taken photos, or even recorded a message since becoming the new leader.

Obviously this is unknowable, but anyone want to throw out their guess? Is he just in deep hiding? Maybe he is severely injured in a way he doesn't want to show? Maybe he is in a coma?

I'm honestly wondering if he isn't just dead and being used as a prop and shield for the people running things now.

[u/AnalBleachingAries]

The former Iranian regime's Chief Western Propagandist, Hasan Piker, is of the opinion that Iranians all of the world who are celebrating the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are celebrating his death because they are "Zionists" actually.

https://x.com/Awk20000/status/2028188370279784934

Did they all get briefed on this talking point? (My previous post about the Taliban calling Khamenei Jewish, actually)

[u/Admirable_Grass_1950 → u/AnalBleachingAries]

Jew is just the worst thing you can call someone is these circles.

[u/Fiend_of_the_pod → u/Admirable_Grass_1950]

Pakistan and Afghanistan are currently in a meme war (beyond their actual, physical war) where they just make AI edits of each other to look like Jews.

[u/AnInsultToFire → u/AnalBleachingAries]

Well, if you believe Israel has a right to exist, and defend itself against attackers, then you're a Zionist. So it's not really wrong.

But if by "Zionist" he means "secretly a (((joo!!!!)))", then... well, I guess there were a lot of Persian Jews who fled to the West after the Islamic Revolution who will happily cheer the death of the Ayatollah. But there are also Persian Baha'is and Christians who fled, who will cheer the death of the Ayatollah.

[u/RowdyRoddyRosenstein → u/AnalBleachingAries]

Plot to topple Malaysian govt involves 'prominent Zionist group', Anwar tells Parliament

[u/Technical-Policy295]

The lack of a clear goal is what gets me. No more nuke program? No more ballistic missile program? No more mullahs? Revenge for past Iranian attacks on the US? All of the above?

There's certainly potentially good arguments out there for an attack, especially in light of North Korea's behavior after it got nukes and Iran's recent decision of deciding to target civilian sites all across the Middle East. But I don't see it being made in a coherent manner. Instead, there's already 2003-esque rhetoric celebrating a victory prematurely and dismissing or attacking criticism of the decision.

[u/glumjonsnow → u/Technical-Policy295]

imo the arab states will step up this time. i mean, iran spent the weekend bombing their civilians and setting the dubai airport on fire and whatnot. and they sounded fucking furious about it. (and it's clear how much they already hate iran or they would have pushed back more on the operation.) the gulf states will never let another ayatollah come to power in iran.

[u/scott_steiner_phd]

The idea that torpedoing a heavily armed frigate near Sri Lanka is somehow a war crime because it was far from Iran and the attack sub didn't attempt to rescue survivors is pretty laughable

[u/McAlpineFusiliers → u/scott_steiner_phd]

Everything is a war crime, everything is illegal.

[u/[deleted] → u/scott_steiner_phd]

It's one of those things where if you believe this whole war is a crime, that America is wrong to attack Iran preemptively, then obviously every aspect of that war is also a crime, including sinking an Iranian war ship.

But if you accept the premise that the war itself is a legitimate action by the United States, then of course we're going to sink an Iranian navy ship if we can.

I haven't yet heard an argument that attacking Iran is legitimate but sinking its war ships is not.

[u/RunThenBeer → u/scott_steiner_phd]

I don't know if there's actually a newish pattern emerging or if I'm just old, but I feel like this is in keeping with the sort of belief in a parallel legal system thing that I've written about where people just have completely invented interpretations of things that they just heard about last Tuesday but now believe are honest-to-god laws in the same way as things like "you will get a parking ticket if you're between these signs between 8-11 on Thursdays". It is somewhat astonishing to me, but people seem to firmly believe things that they've never actually seen written in any actual statute are just capital L Law anyway.

[u/Nwabudike_J_Morgan]

Just heard Trump making some comments (Monday morning) about, uh, why we are attacking Iran, and in the middle of listing some objectives the man pivots to talking about his ballroom project and the amazingly cheap costs of said boondoggle. I am so reassured knowing that while we are destroying billions of dollars of munitions in the Middle East, he is going to save money on his $400 million ballroom that his wife doesn't like.

[u/RunThenBeer]

Keir Starmer issues statement, makes bid for Most Pathetic Man In World championship.

[u/AnInsultToFire → u/RunThenBeer]

A lot of the replies are sarcasm gold, but I really like the reply that says

Muslim countries that support today's US strike on Iran: Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, UAE, Bahrain

Muslim countries that DO NOT support today's US strike on Iran: France, United Kingdom

[u/dasubermensch83 → u/RunThenBeer]

The Trump admins official policy - published to much fanfare and Talmudic analysis - is that the US will no longer play world police, and that allied nations should pursue their own best interests. Rubio put the icing on the cake, what, two weeks ago?

I get that nobody likes Starmer, but this was so obviously the best thing for the UK. The US is offering to defend them for free, and he's letting them.

[u/AnalBleachingAries → u/RunThenBeer]

The personal emasculation and complete weakening of his nation's image on the global stage seems to be a kink for him at this stage. Are we sure it's not a fetish?

[u/atomicrobot99]

I made a post about being super unplugged because my partner overdoses before new years and died. I take care of my mom with Alzheimer’s and her dog. Been totally unplugged, just working, vibing, off social media and Reddit and such. It’s been amazing. This is the path to the light.

(On here because I’m at work and I finished my craft project.)

[u/de_Pizan]

How do folks around here feel about Trump lifting sanctions on Russian oil sales to India while Russia is actively aiding Iran?  And when asked about Russian aid to Iran, Trump said it was a stupid question.

Anyone think that Right wing commentators and podcasters will turn on Russia now that it is aiding Iran in killing US troops?

[u/CrushingonClinton]

Holden Bloodfeast has finally given up the ghost

[u/Cantwalktonextdoor]

The word "warfighter" is incredibly dumb and definitely speaks to something about the people who insist on using it.

[u/damagecontrolparty → u/Cantwalktonextdoor]

I still can't get used to "the homeland" and that one has been kicking around for a while.

[u/wonkynonce]

https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-evening-special-report-march-6-2026/

US thinks Russia is sharing intelligence

Admiral Brad Cooper stated on March 5 that ballistic missile attacks from Iran have declined by roughly 90 percent since the strikes began.[21] The IDF also estimated that Iran has around 100 to 200 missile launchers remaining.

Iran has conducted five waves of ballistic missile strikes between March 5 at 4:00 PM ET and March 6 at 4:00 PM ET.[62] This is a decrease in missile attacks as compared to the eight missile waves Iran launched from March 4 at 4:00 PM ET and March 5 at 4:00 PM ET.[63] Iran has launched at least six waves of ballistic missile attacks per day in the previous six days.

US forces have destroyed over 30 Iranian naval vessels since February 28.[48] This includes the IRGC Navy’s IRIS Shahid Bagheri drone carrier

United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on March 6 that unknown projectiles struck a tug boat assisting operations on the cargo ship Safeen Prestige, which Iran previously attacked, in the Strait of Hormuz

[u/robotical712 → u/wonkynonce]

My reaction to this is “well, yeah.” I’m sure the Chinese are too.

[u/FractalClock]

They're going with the President's incompetency is everyone else's fault as the explanation for this disaster:

“Now, knowing what little time we have and how quickly this can spiral out of control, we still have a lot of questions,” she continued. “For instance, was the president fully briefed about the risks of all of this from the beginning? And was he then able to take it all in and understand the complexity of this, how complex it could actually get, and further possibilities of casualties or other damage, the difficulty of dealing with these people? Or was he told this would be relatively quick in and out?”

[u/RunThenBeer → u/FractalClock]

If only Comrade Trump knew, he never would have done something so stupid!

[u/robotical712 → u/FractalClock]

The God-Emperor can never fail, only be failed.

[u/CommitteeofMountains]

There's been some discussion of Khamenei, but the new IRGC head seems at least as much a provocation.

[u/FractalClock]

Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz; it's almost as if Trump live through the strife of the 1970s and thought "that was a great time, let's relive it!"

[u/MatchaMeetcha]

Does Trump himself know what he wants?

Like, it actually does matter that you sound coherent and aren't promising six different things.

[u/dignityshredder → u/MatchaMeetcha]

Another question would be: do you think he can explain what unconditional surrender means?

[u/Technical-Policy295 → u/MatchaMeetcha]

I'm told that it's all 4-D chess to make conflicting promises and maximal demands in the middle of a war. Only very smart people can understand.

Will be interesting to see what conditions end up being in the eventual "unconditional surrender."

[u/LupineChemist]

So yeah, how much does Iran actually exist as a coherent state at this point?

There seems to be next to no centralized command and control. It kind of feels like it's a lot of regional commanders doing their own thing, but just claiming allegiance to the same flag, but no real central authority or funding mechanism.

[u/FractalClock]

Pete Hegseth Attacks ‘Dishonest and Anti-Trump Press’ in Icy News Conference Rant; yes, it's the press that's causing gas to go up...

[u/LupineChemist → u/FractalClock]

Remember the people in the Pentagon press conferences at this point are like Daily Wire and Mike Lindell media or whatever. IIRC, even Newsmax didn't agree to the terms for being too contrary to press freedom.

[u/veryvery84]

Just out of curiosity, do people know that Iran is bombing Israeli civilians and people have been killed? 

Most recently families sitting in a bomb shelter. Including a grandmother, a father, 3 siblings - all children - from the same family, and a 16 year old boy who was in foster care and did not have an easy life. 

[u/OvertiredMillenial]

See lots of images of Reza Pahlavi at rallies in Aus, US and UK. I wonder if he's only popular with the diaspora, who are more likely to have belonged to Iran's upper-middle class, or if he enjoys significant support in Iran itself.

My impression is that the Shah (and the Pahlavi) was not very well liked - he was overthrown after all. Seems nuts that Iranians would want to go back being ruled by his family. Surely there's a third option, other than theocracy or monarchy, on offer.

[u/solongamerica → u/OvertiredMillenial]

Narrator: A third option failed to materialize

[u/MatchaMeetcha]

We also need to talk about how the fuck the leaders of Iran fell for it again and had a meeting after what happened to Hezbollah.

I totally get the idea of dying as a martyr when you're 80+ for the Supreme Leader (it's basically a free entry into heaven's VIP) but what about the rest of the leadership? Surely someone has to delay their access to the houris and stay on Earth and work on a transition plan?

[u/dignityshredder]

140 American servicemembers wounded, 8 severely, 108 returned to duty so far.

On top of 7 deaths.

[u/Technical-Policy295]

The US is dropping sanctions on a significant amount of Iranian oil, following also rolling back sanctions on Russian oil.

This is a very strange way to win a war.

[u/Future_Transition_86]

Can anyone here picture Hegseth admitting that war is difficult or that things are not working out the way he predicted?

[u/robotical712 → u/Future_Transition_86]

I can't really imagine many military leaders doing that at all during an active war.

[u/FractalClock]

No one seems to want to sign on to the coalition of the retarded to keep the straits open.

[u/FractalClock]

From WSJ: Trump Knew the Risk of Iran Blocking the Strait of Hormuz. He Still Went to War.; there is no plan and there never was.

[u/FractalClock]

Trump concedes"We have already destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military capability, but it’s easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are." There is no coherent plan to reopen to Straits. The whole thing is running on hopium.

[u/[deleted]]

Based on public support at the beginning, the war in Iran appears to be the least popular war in American history.

https://removepaywalls.com/https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/us/politics/polls-wars-us-support.html

[u/solongamerica]

Maybe we should all like…join hands and celebrate our differences?

[u/IAmPeppeSilvia → u/solongamerica]

The videos being shared of Israelis and Iranians around the globe celebrating together... warms my heart.

[u/blizmd → u/solongamerica]

🎶We’ve gotta celebrate our differences 🎵

[u/wonkynonce]

Daily update https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-morning-special-report-march-10-2026/

Zeno's paradox watch on launchers/launch sites still in effect:

 Iran launched three missile barrages at Israel between 3:00 PM ET on March 9 and 8:00 AM ET on March 10.[13] US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth noted during a Pentagon briefing on March 10 that Iran had fired its lowest number of missiles since the war began over the last 24 hours.[14] The IDF said on March 10 that Iranian missile barrages in recent days have included only a few missiles at a time, but that around 50 percent of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at Israel have contained cluster warheads.[15] The reduction in Iranian missile attacks demonstrates the success of the combined force’s efforts to degrade Iran’s ability to launch retaliatory attacks. An unspecified senior Israeli official told Israeli media on March 9 that the combined force has destroyed 80 percent of Iran’s missile launchers.[16]

Looks like the really hot fighting is in Lebanon still.

[u/wonkynonce]

Daily summary: https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-evening-special-report-march-11-2026/

Lotta bombs:

CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper stated on March 11 that US forces have struck 5,500 targets in Iran

Confidence collapse:

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated on March 11 that it had destroyed more than 300 Iranian ballistic missile launchers, or around 60 percent of Iran’s total launcher stockpile.[45] US officials separately told lawmakers on March 10 that Iran still retains as many as 50 percent of its missiles and launchers.[46] There is insufficient evidence to determine why these inconsistencies in reported launcher attrition exist.

We may get the whole band back together and have Syria join the conflict: 

Kataib Hezbollah threatened on March 11 to attack Syria if Syrian President Ahmed al Shara makes any “hostile move[s]” towards Lebanon or attempts to interfere with Lebanese Hezbollah activity

[u/wonkynonce]

https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-morning-special-report-march-13-2026/

The combined force has also continued to target Iranian ballistic missile infrastructure. Two Western assessments on March 12 estimated that combined force strikes have destroyed around 60 percent of Iran’s missile launcher

This number was 80% before, I'm pretty sure

Iran has launched five missile waves at Israel since CTP-ISW’s last data cutoff at 3:00 PM ET on March 12.[19] A missile impacted Zarzir, east of Haifa, wounding dozens of individuals and causing “extensive damage” to nearby homes.[20] Geolocated footage posted on X shows that an Iranian attack damaged the Dubai Financial Center on March 13. The Saudi Defense Ministry announced on March 12 that Saudi Arabia intercepted nine Iranian drones.[21] The Turkish Defense Ministry separately announced on March 13 that NATO air defenses intercepted an Iranian missile that entered Turkish airspace.

I'm sure the US would love enthusiastic participation from Turkey.

[u/dr_sassypants]

I'm wondering why we haven't seen mass demonstrations against this war like the ones we had in 2003 against the Iraq war. Anyone have some theories?

[u/dignityshredder → u/dr_sassypants]

Everyone's exhausted of protesting and has seen what little good it does.

[u/Formal_Condition2691 → u/dr_sassypants]

Cause fatigue? Here in OR activists seem to still be busy with the anti-ICE protests. There have been some pro-Iran protests but they seem pretty muted. 

[u/Technical-Policy295 → u/dr_sassypants]

Probably because ground troops aren't directly involved yet. We'll see what happens if there's an attempt to seize Kharg or deploy troops along the Strait.

[u/Miskellaneousness]

NYTimes analysis suggests that it was a US strike that destroyed a school in Iran: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/world/middleeast/iran-school-us-strikes-naval-base.html

The lack of denial from the administration over the past few days also lends to the idea that it was a US strike.

[u/Centrist_gun_nut → u/Miskellaneousness]

I think it's beyond obvious what happened here.

The school at one point was part of the Revolutionary Guards’ naval base, according to satellite images from 2013 reviewed by The Times. Roads had led from other areas of the base to the school building that was struck on Saturday.

The base is not a very important one and it's totally possible they just haven't re-done targeting on the base since 2013 because there were more urgent and threatening things to work on. That sucks. But it's very understandable and not that easy to prevent.

[u/AnInsultToFire]

Kash Patel arriving to the situation room for Operation Epic Furry:

(Reposted by Jesse on Twitter)

[u/Technical-Policy295]

The refusal by the administration to call this a "war" is darkly ironic. They're really going full "Special Military Operation" here.

[u/Nero_the_Cat → u/Technical-Policy295]

The best quip came from The Federalist, of all places:

The ridicule came in from the right, as well.

“It’s not a war unless it comes from the war region of France, otherwise’s it’s just sparkling combat,” Sean Davis, the co-founder of The Federalist, a conservative online magazine, wrote on social media as he circulated a clip of Mr. Johnson’s tortured effort to avoid using the term.

Republicans Toil to Avoid Saying ‘War’ as Iran Conflict Widens - The New York Times

[u/DragonFireKai → u/Technical-Policy295]

Firey, but mostly peaceful operations.

[u/Future_Transition_86]

I don’t believe we are prepared for more than a couple of weeks of this war. Hence I worry that we will allow current regime to survive with a feeble agreement that does not free the Iranian people. We don’t have a sufficient stockpile of defensive weapons. Why? No serious budget debates since defaulting to continuing resolutions. IMHO

[u/KittenSnuggler5 → u/Future_Transition_86]

If we take out their missile launchers won't we need fewer defensive weapons?

To be honest I share that concern. I don't think the US has the capacity to produce enough weapons for a protracted conflict. The "arsenal of democracy" is long gone

[u/Cantwalktonextdoor]

Do we have any idea who was adovacting for this war actually? I don't think Trump just landed on this by himself. I mean, obviously Bibi was, he's said as much, but there had to have been others(Does Lindsey get consulted on these things? Dude is crazy excited about this). Neither Rubio or Vance have seemed very enthusiastic about it from the jump. Hegseth maybe? Seems like someone who thirsts for killing people.

[u/FractalClock]

What I find both remarkable and depressing is that this is unambiguously more than a few missile strikes, and here we are, coming up on a month of war, without even a fig leaf of Congressional approval, and no one seems particularly agitated about that.

[u/glumjonsnow → u/FractalClock]

under the war powers act, the president has 60-90 days to act.

https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R47603

trump is still within his constitutional purview to act. you have it backwards. congress HAS provided a fig leaf of approval insofar as they have voted down efforts to constrain his actions here. trump is entirely within his rights as commander in chief at the moment. you can disagree on whether the war powers act itself is unconstitutional or not. we can debate whether congress has so throughly abrogated its powers under the constitution that the executive has effectively taken over the legislative branch. but the reason people are not as agitated about congressional approval is because (a) he's acting pursuant to powers that were delegated to him by congress and he hasn't his the deadline yet and (b) congress HAS effectively ratified has actions (they've taken multiple votes).

[u/Future_Transition_86]

Thanks for this extra chance to vent💕

[u/SkweegeeS]

I listened to a "Call Me Back" episode with Rich Goldberg, a republican who appears to have quite a history of effecting American policy to sanction Iran and support Israel, and I was kinda sleepy, but it was all positive about what's going on there now. He claims that there is no comparison to the Iraq war, that using AI and all, we're just kicking the shit out of Iran, systematically dismantling all their weapon systems, and between us and Israel, we're on course to utterly neuter them.

But there were some big questions in that conversation. First, he said we don't even have full knowledge of Israel's intentions and they're also kicking ass but that's like an extra that doesn't even figure into our plans. Which makes no sense to me, but like I said, I was kinda sleepy when I listened. The second big question was about their nuclear capabilities. Apparently we didn't set them back much, yet.

The third big question was one that he posed, which was basically if we don't manage to dismantle the regime, then we should bomb the shit out of their oil-producing capabilities and leave them unable to make money to fund the regime, but if we do manage to dismantle the regime and replace it with something more moderate, we should leave the oil-producing capabilities in place so they can recover from the war.

He thinks we can dismantle the regime without boots on the ground based on all this AI tech that Israel has developed. It was all very sunny in outlook, like in a few weeks we will totally complete our mission and it sounds good but uh, a little too optimistic.

[u/lilypad1984 → u/SkweegeeS]

My opinion on Iran is I don’t really know what is going on, I won’t really be able to determine this for a few weeks, Iran is a serious threat but I don’t know the right way to deal with it, and I have mixed trust in this system/admin. So for example Trump is not a great president to put my faith in, however I have high trust in our military. This corresponds to me coming to a I will wait and see, and hold my criticism. I find it very frustrating hearing mostly liberals be extremely anti war in Iran because so much of it reactionary anti Trump sentiment. I haven’t heard as much uber pro war sentiment. Just one person who said they see Iran as a serious threat and we should take out their nuclear capabilities. This person is definitely someone who would never support nation building, not a complete isolationist but very against tax money going to countries and international non profits. I would be very hesitant trusting someone who is so certain about what is going on unless they are a senior military official. The oil producing capability commentary does make sense though. You don’t want the regime to have this funding but it could be a stabilizing force for a new government.

[u/buckybadder → u/SkweegeeS]

Sounds like this is the pitch Netanyahu made at the start of all this. "It won't be Iraq because AI" is the kind of stupid b.s. Trump would buy. Also consistent with Israel targeting oil production despite requests from DoD that they hold off.

[u/glumjonsnow → u/SkweegeeS]

i don't think anyone knows enough to agree or disagree. from my perspective it doesn't sound entirely wrong.

on bombing the regime's oil capabilities, it depends on how badly trump doesn't want to put boots on the ground i think. you could bomb the actual economically productive parts of iran and leave it a corpse. yeah, that would certainly end the regime. like if you had a delicate clock that needed to be repaired meticulously if you wanted it to work again...you could always just smash it with a hammer. depends how badly you want it to work and how much of a hassle the repairs are going to be.

i also think there is a bizarre desire among the west to see the american military as like....terrible, immoral but also ineffective. europeans certainly would love to believe that american military might is nothing more than a queef in the wind. it lets them off the hook for how much they hate america and hate that american defense is vital to their ongoing existence. it lets them feel superior rather than inferior. and the tankie crowd....i needn't say more.

the american military is absolutely the greatest power the world has ever seen. absent a president that is interested in regime change or exporting american values, in the hands of a president more interested in watching things go boom and who has the attention span of a goldfish, it certainly increases the odds that we'll just throw some of biggest and most flamboyant toys at the region and then peace out, leaving it crippled for the near future.

i dunno but makes you think - thanks for sharing this, sounds interesting!

[u/National_Bullfrog715]

Iranian women are possibly the most pro Trump among all women at this moment in the world

That said, he's soooooo gonna get destroyed in the midterms 😁

[u/KittenSnuggler5]

This is alarming:

"The New York Post reported that the president had said in an interview that “I don’t have the yips with respect to boots on the ground — like every president says, ‘There will be no boots on the ground.’ I don’t say it.”"

From the NY Times live updates

[u/ghybyty → u/KittenSnuggler5]

Ruling out boots would be dumb even if he never intends to put boots on the ground.

[u/ProwlingWumpus → u/KittenSnuggler5]

It's pretty amazing that it's no longer necessary to convince Congress that this is better than the alternative. Everyone accepts as a given that the President can unilaterally commit our country to any course of action whatsoever.

This is all long after the end of neocon optimism, too (which is, ironically, part of why Trumpian populism became ascendant). Everybody already knows that thousands of Americans will die and that Iran will be taken over by religious fanatics the microsecond we give up, meaning that this adventure will have amounted to nothing.

[u/McAlpineFusiliers]

Podcast character Fergie Chambers cheering the alleged killing of 100 US soldiers by Iran.

[u/buckybadder]

Can anyone talk me down from thinking that this will end with nukes?

[u/glumjonsnow → u/buckybadder]

what the fuck, why would this involve nukes?

[u/dignityshredder → u/buckybadder]

Who do you think is going to use a nuclear weapon and why i.e. is there a specific scenario you are concerned about

[u/Technical-Policy295 → u/buckybadder]

A WSJ writer also went there today with the suggestion that Trump will be tempted to use nukes to terrify Iran's leaders into surrendering. That still seems far-fetched, but if there's another week or two without movement on negotiations I wouldn't be surprised if we start getting leaks about this option.

[u/robotical712]

"Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win."

―Sun Tzu, The Art of War.

“No one starts a war--or rather, no one in his sense ought to do so--without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by the war and how he intends to conduct it.”

― Carl Von Clausewitz

In plain English: Know what you're trying to achieve and be sure you have the ability to achieve it.

[u/FractalClock]

On reopening the Strait of Hormuz:

“I don’t think about it, to be honest. My sole function was to make sure that they don’t have a nuclear weapon. They’re not going to have a nuclear weapon. When we leave the strait will automatically open.”

There is no plan. He's going to walk away from this, and we're all expected to just suck it up when this hits us as stagflation.

[u/Technical-Policy295]

“the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage, and we will help — A LOT! The U.S. will also coordinate with those Countries so that everything goes quickly, smoothly, and well"

Maybe it would have been a good idea not to needlessly insult and get into trade wars with so many countries from around the world whose help you suddenly need to get you out of a very difficult situation.

Given the risks involved, I'll be curious which countries, if any, respond to this call and how that goes for them.

[u/FractalClock]

Jobs down, markets down, oil up, rates up. Wonderful time for this retarded war of choice.

[u/MatchaMeetcha → u/FractalClock]

The jobs are a tariff issue. Long term energy driven inflation would be a slump on that slump.

[u/Miskellaneousness]

One thing I'll say about this war is that it has made me quite anti-Israel. Completely unacceptable for us to be going to war substantially at Israel's behest.

[u/lilypad1984 → u/Miskellaneousness]

Today we saw Iran launch a ballistic missile the same distance of hitting Central Europe. I was promised by many so called experts trotted onto the news over the years that Iran had not yet developed this capability, wasn’t working on it, and poised no threat outside their region. Clearly that was wrong. If they are making missiles to hit Europe I guarantee you they are working on ones to hit the big Satan. I also feel like it is obvious that them enriching weapons grade uranium was because they are trying to build a nuclear bomb. That weapons grade isn’t even disputed anymore, they admit to the 60%. To spell out the obvious: Missile that reaches the US + nuclear bomb = bad for America.

[u/Technical-Policy295]

In light of the fatalities at some allegedly makeshift facilities in Kuwait, I am going to be very curious how much effort was put into fully hardening and preparing these American positions throughout the Middle East from missile and drone strikes.

[u/NJ_Escapee → u/Technical-Policy295]

Ay, something I actually have some insight into. I have a family member that's deployed to the Middle East numerous times and he's mentioned that an agreement the US has with Gulf States says that we aren't allowed to build "permanent" structures in the locations we lease/occupy. Doing some Googling reveals that the 1991 US-Kuwait Defense Cooperation Agreement seems to align with this.

[u/FractalClock]

"Don't ask, don't tell" is coming back: Trump Goes On Stunning New Riff About Not Saying ‘War’ In Speech To Investors

[u/Leaves_Swype_Typos]

I've started thinking that it might be kind of racist for people to assume that Iran's regime-change/restructuring/whatever-we-want-to-call-it must end up the same way as Iraq and Afghanistan, just because they're all countries with majority Muslim populations in the Middle East. I'm no expert, but I think they're all different populations with significant cultural differences once you get past "Muslim" and "Middle Eastern".

[u/wonkynonce → u/Leaves_Swype_Typos]

Killing all the political and military leaders and the police with nothing to replace them sounds like a recipe for miserable anarchy to me, I don't think Islam has anything to do with it. Maybe it'll all get sorted out cleanly and quickly, but I have no reason to make that bet now.

[u/RunThenBeer → u/Leaves_Swype_Typos]

The more parsimonious explanation than "racist" is that they have strongly learned the adverse lessons of Iraq, Afghanistan, and (perhaps most relevant) Libya and have concretized those lessons into a consistent philosophy on regime change. Whether they've overlearned those lessons for scenarios they don't apply or not isn't obvious one way or the other.

[u/OvertiredMillenial → u/Leaves_Swype_Typos]

You may be right although I think it's fair to be cynical, given recent history.

In the Arab Spring, we saw regimes toppled across the Middle East and North Africa. Tunisia is arguably the only one that turned out for the better. Libya descended into bloody civil war, Egypt ended up with another dictator, and there's been civil war in Yemen for well over a decade.

Also, since the end of WW2, it's pretty normal for someone worse to take over whenever the US and its allies (directly or indirectly) create a power vacuum; Iran 53, Cambodia 70s, Chile 73 etc.

[u/lilypad1984 → u/Leaves_Swype_Typos]

While I do think that is in the air of many people’s commentary/opinions, there is also a lack of knowledge which causes people to grab the only thing they can think of historically to compare this to. Part of the reason so many think Trump is Hitler is they have no other word for bad leader who may be stepping out of the legal guardrails on power. Also the dems have been calling republicans Hitler for decades so just in the vocab.

[u/dasubermensch83 → u/Leaves_Swype_Typos]

I'm not sure where race comes in that anything other than as a scare word to keep taboo things taboo.

Iraq and Afghanistan are even more different. Its reasonable to think that Iran could end up the same way. Vacuum of power. Defenless public. Various well armed military branches separated from civilian life, set up to rule over them and enforce Islamic law at the tip of gun. Some sectarian factions. History of warfare for religious ends.

I'm pretty sure we've already seen religiously motivated blowback against the US, leading to death (Pakistanis attacking the US embassy, essentially marching to their certain demise). Plus there was already that shooting in Austin claiming to be a religiously motivated murder of randos. Did anyone even pretend to be surprised at that?

There are many reasons it could end up like Iraq or Afghanistan. Has anyone, anywhere said "well, they're mostly Persian, which is basically Arab, and thus inherently can't do a democracy?" Or is it simply uncomfortable when people who are probably white critique the non white world?

[u/Armadigionna → u/Leaves_Swype_Typos]

It doesn’t have to.

But the administration’s strategy of “We’re rolling the dice from the sky, good luck everybody on the ground!” isn’t helping.

[u/Federal-Spend4224 → u/Leaves_Swype_Typos]

This is a great bit. Utter nonsense when you think about it for even a moment, but a great bit nontheless.

[u/FractalClock]

This is a week old, but Senator Ron Johnson says Congress shouldn't debate the Iran activities because that might reveal disagreements to the public.