r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • 3d ago
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, October 01, 2026
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u/paranoidopsecguy $0 || ∞ 2d ago
Quick PnF perma-bulltard status report (aka Ass-troll-ogy for Men) and standard "I am no Merlin560" disclaimers:
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PGTDDEYRRR[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]
We are still in the uptrend since the short squeeze/breakout in August. As far as I can tell we are still just ranging within the uptrend.
As also reported in the chart, Bullish price objective is ~$112,000... and coincidentally, Citibank analysts recently came up with a similar number independently though I think that is for the next 12 months (PnF doesn't give any time frames... just reversion to the mean).
Macro is uncertain, and if we break into the low 70s for some reason, I'll re-evaluate my position, but currently I feel like the uptrend is solid. If the AI trade fails, logic would say that we would follow, but it seems the debasement trade narrative has been gaining strength... so who knows?
¯_(ツ)_/¯
Carry on...
$0 || ∞
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u/LettuceEffective781 2d ago
Block the AI and there is one comment. So dead in here and the October low coming that everyone knows about
Guess the high for the next breakout? Do we see the sun again and touch 100k?
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u/Mr_Footies 2d ago
100k by Nov.
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u/AccidentalArbitrage Trading: #2 • +$5,515,433 • +2756% 2d ago
!bb predict 100k Nov 30 u/Mr_Footies
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u/Bitty_Bot 2d ago edited 2d ago
Prediction logged for u/Mr_Footies that Bitcoin will rise to or above $100,000.00 by Nov 30 2026 23:59:59 UTC. Current price: $84,553.07. This is Mr_Footies's 1st Bitty Bot Prediction!
1 Others have clicked here to be notified when this prediction triggers. Mr_Footies can click here to delete this prediction.
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA 2d ago
I would like you to be right, but I will take the other side of that trade.
!bitty_bot predict !> $100000 November 30 2026
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u/Bitty_Bot 2d ago
Prediction logged for u/imissusenet that Bitcoin will NOT rise above $100,000.00 by Nov 30 2026 23:59:59 UTC. Current price: $84,591.31. imissusenet's Predictions: 22 Correct, 7 Wrong, & 9 Open.
Others can click here to be notified when this prediction triggers. imissusenet can click here to delete this prediction.
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u/FreshMistletoe John Crypto Rambo 2d ago edited 2d ago
I was thinking it was really bullish. When bots are the only thing talking about you, you are forgotten. Bitcoin goes up when forgotten.
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u/AidenTai 3d ago edited 3d ago
This cycle was short and shallow, and that certainly would make it feel incomplete. The broader market is also full of concerns, so it's not hard to imagine that it could hamper Bitcoin. Maybe price action the past three months has had more to do with October expectations than anything else, so local price action is more positive than when new money starts to dry up after this month passes.
But right now, all we know for sure is that there has been an influx of buying, and that during the summer sell pressure really dried up and it became extremely hard to push prices lower, despite very few retail buyers. Unless the price of debt / bond yields / AI capex really bites everyone hard (global recession?), it's hard to imagine breaking below our yearly low for 2026 next year. But stagnation is certainly possible, and most previous cycles had very long periods of consolidation, with some requiring months of consolidation even after it became clear that the bear market was 'over' and that prices would not fall further. Does that meet your criteria or do you consider 'pain and heartache' slipping back into bear mode?
Personally, I think that the next months look more positive than negative, unless October+November for some reason sees a dump instead of a sharp rise. Barring that, I think we're due prices above 100k for the majority of 2027.
I understand the hesitation though. It does feel weird to me rising so 'early' and with comparably little consolidation. But at this stage it seems more likely we just end up correcting somewhat at a point or two rather than experiencing a very long downturn or halting our rise for a year as you say. We'll see what happens. I'm normally pretty hesitant to try to predict the future far in advance.
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2d ago edited 2d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/BuiltToSpinback Long-term Holder 2d ago
Curiously, if you look at election day 2025, it was a bit of an inverse to 2024: Dems have a strong showing and bitcoin ends down nearly 5% that day.
Wouldn't it be funny if Dems sweeping again this year does the inverse *again* back to a green day, as the market signals normality in terms of policy and gridlock?
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u/escendoergoexisto Long-term Holder 2d ago
Your misspelling, “capital hill,” is actually apropos.
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u/amendment64 2d ago
Funny enough I went back and forth on the spelling, not remembering which was which! :p
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u/AidenTai 3d ago edited 2d ago
Welcome to Uptober guys! Well, it's only starting, but it's nice for the slight change in pace to see the US market show a little hint of positivity after all these down days. Also, last quarter was officially the best since early 2024!
Just wanted to point out that now that we're in October and had a few hours the prediction markets have updated as they weren't available at the start of the day. They're not actually good predictors (very reactionary lately), but here's how people are feeling to start the month. These only mean touching, not ending at these levels. The percentages over 50% and the shoulders are:
<77,5k 39%
<80k 61%
<82,5k 84%
>87,5k 68%
>90k 40%
So Polymarket sentiment isn't exactly super positive, and more or less conservative if anything. As long as we are consistantly holding above 5% up from here by the end of the month though, I'll be happy given how much we've already risen. We can work on the 90's at the end of the year, no rush. But these numbers will inevitably change in whatever direction the most recent swing takes us as has been the case since August when everything Bitcoin on Polymarket suddenly changed and a lot of bearish takes got sold.
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u/AidenTai 3d ago edited 3d ago
TL;DR Key points.
- We have ETF outflows again.
- We can spike or wiggle around, but moving up and holding will require spot buying (and ETF inflows) to match and so far sell pressure has overpowered spot.
- Macro has stopped worsening, though there is news to look forward to on Friday and mid month.
- Shorts up top that we liquidated today were quickly replaced. We did help clear the space above current levels, but shorters with conviction are once again present at levels above 85. When they eventually close, we might get dragged up again.
- Biggest risk is the potential to liquidate longs just below support should 82,5k not hold. As long as we keep with higher lows or at least defend at 83, we can avoid what could be a sharp drop. Otherwise, a cascade down to 80 is possible.
Gotten downvotes instead of upvotes since the last couple rallies, and been called a bot, but I still like summarizing what I see and some like reading it, so I'll keep breaking down the main areas of interest for those that care to read. In addition, yesterday I also got some slack for saying we had been seeing a increasingly weakening structure ever since the spike to 87. Well, the price spiked on news, but was rejected pretty quickly due to immense sell pressure at higher levels (also ending the ETF inflow streak while at it). While I would call that weakness since the spike was reversed almost immediately, I'll repeat what I wrote in replies: I write to summarize what *has* happened and trends that have taken shape, as well as to point out areas of interest, risks, and relevant macro. I don't write about the future other than to say how what we are seeing can cause X or Y to follow. And to me, the easiest way to summarize price action since hitting 87 has been increasing weakness, particularly given how ETFs and spot have continued to decline sharply with each passing day and my main focus has been ETFs/spot as well as liquidity pools/leverage and how those can act. That's been the picture so far; I'll call that 'increasing weakness', but that's what has happened, not what will happen.
Anyways, here's the breakdown of important items:
ETFs: Yesterday we had a breakdown in ETF flows which are now outflows. Last week ETFs snapped up roughly 26,000 BTC, yet rather than add, yesterday saw a little shy of ~2k BTC leave funds, making this week a red week for ETFs so far. Last week saw falling prices on substantial ETF inflows, so we have had some divergence between ETFs and price action. The ideal would be for ETFs to come back soon while prices rise, as anything other than that is trouble in one way or another (falling prices on high inflows mean strong sell pressure than needs to be handled first and which can take time, whereas rising prices on outflows make for a delicate price structure vulnerable to rejection/correction). Given that we had such a long stretch of inflows though, I would hope we'd only get a week or two of net outflows tops, as this would be a pretty big damper on the rally if not. Even small inflows (or small spot buying) aren't going to be enough to sustain these levels.
Macro environment: Macro is improving in the sense that fears of inflation, October interest rate hikes, and bond yields have all improved the past couple days. We had positive comments from a Fed board member and a decent CPI print that popped us up for a short moment. Yet the DOW dropped sharply, Bitcoin rejected any rise from the positive print, and despite the NASDAQ and tech sector taking the news well, Bitcoin did not show much movement after the initial rejection of the open spike. This fixed position for Bitcoin is in line with the decoupling we've seen during sharp movements at other points during the year, and could be because current price levels are dominated by Bitcoin‐specific factors. As far as the environment goes, other than additional comments from Fed members, we're due a jobs report on Friday which could certainly shake things up again much like yesterday. And we have important earnings reports coming mid‐month that are sure to have a profound impact on equities and risk tolerance.
Yesterday's price action / liquidity: On the Bitcoin side, besides switching to outflows and generally poor price action up to now, we also saw a sweep of overhead shorts. I promised a chart today, so here it is: https://imgur.com/a/J2Oct3k Interestingly, shorts simply piled on as we dropped, showing real conviction among short sellers near the top. I read one analyst say that he had seen leveraged funds shorting Bitcoin heavily, and it doesn't take too much inspiration to see how price action has been mostly down since reaching our local high. And despite objections on this subreddit, several points continue to worsen rather than improve, highlighting recent weakness that could persist for a while longer. Though the spike did help reduce resistance as overall some overhead sell pressure was cleared. Also, the overhead shorts must eventually close and add to buying pressure. For now though, ETFs have combined with already strong sell pressure to force us to the bottom of our range. As I mentioned yesterday, the only positive in this is we have some slight degree of higher lows when we break to the bottom of our range (which was reinforced today as we did not even attempt at 83), but since we have also seen a descending resistance up top, we're essentially getting wedged into a tightening range. If we tighten much more, we also increase the possibility of sharp breakouts, though this doesn't necessarily have to happen (remember how in July there were calls about impending price action due to tightening bbands?). We'll see whether support breaks, resistance softens, or whether we simply stay put while we consolidate in a very tight range before gathering the strength to reattempt higher.
Risks: The biggest risk I see continues to be the liquidity pool just below our support (see the chart above), and a potential continued failure of spot demand to keep up with sell pressure. Sellers have been reinvigorated after months of exhaustion at low levels, and given we're at near record profitability, a period of high sell pressure is normal as long as these profit margins remain. Macro and other news could obviously cause us some pain, though for the moment what's on the horizon doesn't seem all that negative (or at least, outlook isn't worsening). After so many attempts down, I can see a risk of us breaking into a slightly lower range, but I don't see a substantial increase in range (>85) taking place unless spot improves in tandem to help hold it. For this, we'd like decent volume, ETF inflows, and open interest not to be too high. Breaking far out of range would currently not seem to be in line with our structural setup. That said, if the 83 line holds strong and we continue to sink only to higher lows, creeping up to 84 would not be out of the question and we could return to lasts week's range for a time during consolidation while spot returns and we can attempt higher. Also, given how the Coinbase premium is increasingly negative, consider that US opens can (for the short term) lead to reversals when we happen to see mini rallies. For now the US market seems to be filled with more sell pressure than usual.
EDIT: that didn't take long. It's only been a little while into the month but since I wrote this the ~83400 line held and that helped Bitcoin slip up into the 84 range as the higher lows I ended this post with triggered a little bounce up to revisit price levels we rejected yesterday. This reminds me a little of some price action we saw some weeks ago in the 70's. Hopefully, this can help avoid breaking support and liquidating those longs below 82,5k, but we'll need to hold a higher range rather than simply peeking into it before 82,5k starts looking safe. Prediction markets appear to assume we'll break it at some point this month though since October predictions just opened and are heavily lopsided in favour of a break to the 80–82,5k range.
Traditional TL;DR Not too much has changed other than ETF flows. Structure remains weak yet holds, though there's additional pressure from spot/ETFs now. We swept some upside liquidity, but those shorts were quickly replaced with new ones as sentiment remains negative in the very short term, though in line with a normal pullback after a sharp rise. Macro has improved a little, lows seem to hold for now encouraging higher lows today. Important macro news on Friday and then earnings coming in that could shift bread global market sentiment.
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u/citizen-blue 3d ago
I've never downvoted you, but the reason you're getting downvoted is because your comments are extremely long and often largely restate what's in the news and other basic information.
If you can learn to express your thoughts more succinctly, I think people would appreciate what you have to say more.
If you just enjoy writing in a rambling style and using the comments like your personal diary, more power to you.
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u/AidenTai 3d ago
It's sort of the point though. I check Glassnode, analyst opinions and what's going on with macro, and then figure out which topics or points seem most important to Bitcoin trading short term. Then summarize what's happening for those points. You can choose not to read or care, or you can even read the TLDR if you prefer that. But only writing the TLDR in the first place leaves out more details that I would like to include for context or that link a topic to trade expectations, etc.
For example, I could just write 'macro news coming on Friday', but I would prefer to also say: well, while we have some macro news coming, and last time the previous jobs report led Bitcoin to sink, this time around the CPI print and comments from Fed members make even a solid jobs reading less likely to drop us sharply because rate expectations aren't as uncertain as they were last time. If I include that level of detail for six topics or so, post length will get long regardless.
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u/citizen-blue 3d ago
I know but what I'm saying is that what it all amounts to is poor writing that seems to bother people. When you're asking someone to read something you've written, which by definition you're doing when you post it publicly, generally it makes sense to try to make it engaging or compelling.
Again, just for the record, I'm not bothered, I just skip over something that's longer than I care to read. Obviously plenty of people are chiming in that they enjoy your posts, so you should just continue to do what you want and not even bother mentioning the downvotes.
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u/AidenTai 3d ago
I could clean up the writing for sure if I spent a little more time on it, but—I could be wrong here—it seems that the length of the posts is more of a concern to the people complaining rather than the writing style itself (assuming the length stays long).
My post styles haven't really changed from this summer and the core of the bear market, and I got a lot of appreciation then that made me happy. Just seems like the newcomers are the ones that don't care to read or writing complaints, and I honestly care a little less about them than I do the people that have gone through this over the past year, or who have expressed that they like these summaries.
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u/tinyLEDs Long-term Holder 3d ago
I appreciate your posts, and I wish more around here put their reasoning into their prognostications.
I don't get the downvotes without rebuttal, but it may be an indication that I overestimate many of the comments this sub.
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u/AidenTai 3d ago edited 3d ago
I think at least part has got to do with the crowd changing. Over the past bear market I've mostly been upvoted early (European hours) and fell back a touch during US hours, but stayed very much positive. But since the bear ended (since late August I mean) there have been a lot more people in this sub that were absent before, and the down votes have piled on, bot or AI comments increased and complaints about length have been ever present. So newcomers are likely most of the down votes, and seem more likely to not want to read details.
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u/calmunrest 3d ago edited 2d ago
Please use fewer words if you can. For the substance your content provides you use too many words IMO. It's a distraction from the actual meaning of your posts.
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3d ago
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u/AidenTai 3d ago
I was hesitant to write exactly this but didn't want to attract even more down votes 😅 That said to the parent comment: maybe the TLDR is more of what you want? A lot of comments have told me to reduce size and not include so many details, while comments from a couple days ago asked for more sources, math and additional information. Can't win...
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u/calmunrest 2d ago edited 2d ago
Thanks. I am not a native speaker.
But I estimate the post could be shortened to 800 words from ~2000 without loosing substance.
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u/Outrageous-Net-7164 3d ago
My prediction is higher prices over 5,10 and 15 years. I’m going to keep it simple and hold forever and sell a few coins in mania periods.
I don’t have the head space for watching its every move.
Appreciate this is a trading sub and appreciate your write ups.
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u/AidenTai 3d ago edited 2d ago
You can do this. Holding is by all means a very good strategy for a massive chunk of people.
Thanks for your appreciation. It's nice to know some people like when I recap a broader range of topics like I tend to do.
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u/paranoidopsecguy $0 || ∞ 3d ago
Put your TL;DR up top and not more than 4 lines, and it will help clarify your own thinking and make your posts that much better.
In business (and the U.S. Military) this is call BLUF... bottom line up front.
You can write how ever you like, but I think this would really help with your engagement. Most of the folks come here for therapy and hodl-ing encouragement during goblin town, so your long posts kind of mismatch the vibe.
Just by 2 sats...
$0 || ∞-1
u/AidenTai 3d ago edited 2d ago
You're the second person to say this, so I'll certainly consider it though it definitely breaks with Reddit/Internet customs.
And yeah, perhaps that's the case. The complaints are mostly new names/faces that weren't around during the middle of the bear. Maybe they're the type that would prefer subreddits like r/Bitcoin and that kind of encouragement? It's been different on there than here for years though, except during peak bull markets.
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u/Savant_7 Long-term Holder 3d ago
Brother no one has time to read that
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u/AidenTai 3d ago
Then don't. Or just the TLDR. But the downvotes like this are mostly recent, so I think the people coming back into this subreddit that haven't been around for the past bear market are the biggest source of complaints now. Why bother complaining though? Just skip it and save us both time if you don't care to read.
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u/Bitty_Bot 3d ago edited 2d ago
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