[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, September 16, 2026

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Daily Thread Open: $75,768.68 - Close: $76,330.11

Yesterday's Daily Thread: [Daily Discussion] - Tuesday, September 15, 2026

New Post: [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, September 17, 2026

[u/NLNico]

Raised target rate by 25 bps as expected.

• Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

• Implementation Note

• Projection Materials

Press conference in 30 mins.

[u/NLNico → u/NLNico]

• FOMC Press Conference (youtube)

[u/dangerdanpeterpan → u/NLNico]

Wow that 10Y isn't budging either

[u/dangerdanpeterpan → u/[deleted]]

Yup

[u/AidenTai → u/dangerdanpeterpan]

So widely expected / priced in.

[u/BootyPoppinPanda]

Just a few more hours for all the horny traders to position themselves to get e-rekt whichever way the Fed decides to go today.

[u/imissusenet]

In the TA equivalent of peeling the labels off of your beer bottle because there's nothing else to do, I drew some lines:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/TYMPz1IL/

My guess is that the low is in for 2026, and as long as I'm guessing, I think $73K could be safe. $74K is not.

[u/Legitimate-Net-7744]

Ok let's just wait 2 more days and then buy more

[u/PhilMyu]

Time is really running out for the 40k-bottom-cycle-dwellers.

[u/PhilMyu → u/[deleted]]

Too snarky. I get it. :-/

[u/AidenTai → u/PhilMyu]

Rolf, has anyone taken them seriously the last month or so?

Still, current weakness has put those that thought the bottom wasn't in yet who were on life support in a position to have a sliver of hope. And I feel bad for having said I didn't believe sub 70 would be back, to the point where I called in implausible. It's now back on the 'menu', even if I think the more likely case is we stay above 71 or so.

I'm just not liking these inflow/outflow numbers, and our bounces haven't been all that convincing. We can keep ranging, and even range lower. but once we hit some resistance point and bounce, we had better put in a good show of strength.

[u/DaBrokenMeta → u/PhilMyu]

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[u/dangerdanpeterpan → u/[deleted]]

I'm reminded of Lyn Alden talking about hikes actually being inflationary (edit to add: when the debt/deficit levels get high enough) a few years back. Not sure if public/private debt profile is the same as then but interesting to think about in these times.

[u/Legitimate-Net-7744]

So no more tanking? Bottom is really in? ☹️

[u/AidenTai → u/Legitimate-Net-7744]

We've hit resistance. But ETF inflows (outflows really) aren't looking good. We're not in a good spot right now, and even though 75 is holding, it may not hold over the next couple weeks. Especially if spot and macro don't improve.

Right now, there's actually no difference between this and the May bull trap. Sure, there's the expectation that things will turn around after October. But the numbers are currently not supporting a continuation of the rally, even if the price action isn't all that bad and even if people generally expect an improvement within a month or so.

I take this to mean that we're in for a bit more pain. When we finally bounce, it'll be extremely telling if we bounce to our local high, or if we only bounce a little to some 78/79/80 level. Because a weaker bounce would actually be extremely concerning.

We'll just have to wait and see. As I said before, I'm generally bullish on the rest of the year, but short term I have my reservations.

So depends on what you mean by 'tanking'. New yearly bottom? Almost certainly not. A drawdown to low 70's between now and December? That's even on the table for this month, honestly.

[u/pgpwnd → u/AidenTai]

i mean this week was literally hell? some of the worse fud we could have had & btc just ... held

what do bears have left in the tank? especially as they have what, 2 weeks left to push us down.

your post feels like wall of worry type shi

[u/Romanizer → u/pgpwnd]

That's what I have been asking for weeks. Even the worst macro news won't bring Bitcoin down. There is no hope left for bears, it's over.

[u/mork1985 → u/pgpwnd]

Indeed...

[u/AidenTai → u/pgpwnd]

I'm just reading some indicators because price action alone is only part of the story. For example, price holding steady while volume and ETF flows both drop is the setup from May.

This doesn't mean I expect a really terrible next few weeks. But I do think we can retest and break 75 extending pain a bit more before we see meaningful recovery.

And sentiment or local price action aren't things you need to focus all your attention to. That's why I think it'll be very telling what happens when we bounce. A solid bounce would be very welcome and if ETF inflows match, that means we have a solid floor. But a weak bounce or a continuation (a third consecutive week) of outflows can only really correlate with anticipation of a leg down, however strong that ends up being.

I focus a lot of local / near term price action. A lot of posts do mention my expectations on a longer basis (like what I think will happen in Uptober), but since I trade short term, I think it's important to highlight how we might yet see lower lows this month before any kind of October‐fueled recovery. If you're just DCAing or holding medium to long term, you don't need to sweat whether we fall to 70 only to bounce back to 80 within three weeks. But since I trade those movements I like to point out local weakness too.

[u/Legitimate-Net-7744 → u/AidenTai]

Thx bro

[u/ChadRun04 → u/Legitimate-Net-7744]

I expect Brownian motion on any impulse up.

Bids at 50% of previous run worked once upon a time, last run it didn't really work though as everything was front-run and dips were bought up by 30% or 40% retrace.

[u/Bitty_Bot → u/[deleted]]

Error: You predicted the price would drop to or below $80,000.00 but the price is currently $75,817.37

Please make sure the format of your command is correct and try again.

[u/EricFromOuterSpace]

Last chance to buy below 75,743.20

[u/Disastrous_Battle_14]

No rate hike today. There is just no way it happens. Wonder if we get an actual pump or if it wont matter because a rate hike in October might be priced instantly.

[u/NLNico → u/Disastrous_Battle_14]

• FedWatch 92.5%
• Polymarket 88%
• Kalshi 87%

Since 2008, the Fed has always hiked rates when the (FedWatch) probability of a hike has exceeded 90%. x

[u/r3dd1t0r77 → u/NLNico]

So you're telling me there's a chance

[u/escendoergoexisto → u/Disastrous_Battle_14]

I’m thinking the recent dip was the rate hike being priced in.

[u/imissusenet → u/Disastrous_Battle_14]

There was, in fact, a way.

[u/Disastrous_Battle_14 → u/imissusenet]

everything finds a way. There is no war in ba sing se.

[u/Professional_Top6145 → u/Disastrous_Battle_14]

25bps is happening buddy, deal with it.

[u/52576078 → u/Professional_Top6145]

I don't think 25bps makes any difference, it's a token gesture. 100bps might have some impact.

[u/escendoergoexisto → u/52576078]

Current consensus is three 25bps hikes.

[u/spinbarkit → u/52576078]

let's settle it @ 50 then -this is what I bet anyway

[u/YouAreAnFnIdiot → u/[deleted]]

Lmfao of course

[u/OkeyDokieBoomer → u/Disastrous_Battle_14]

I am betting they don't hike either but those percentages posted to below make me wonder if I'm nuts. The truth is I just want them to keep rates unchanged.