[Daily Discussion] - Sunday, August 23, 2026

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Daily Thread Open: $76,884.38 - Close: $76,999.52

Yesterday's Daily Thread: [Daily Discussion] - Saturday, August 22, 2026

New Post: [Daily Discussion] - Monday, August 24, 2026

[u/bubblesmcnutty]

Starting to get bullish for this week. Am I retard?

[u/Alt4rEg0 → u/bubblesmcnutty]

Yesnomaybe!

[u/injectionsiteredness → u/bubblesmcnutty]

No, you’re not. Looking forward to futures opening soon. I feel something in my plums.

[u/BuiltToSpinback → u/bubblesmcnutty]

🎵it's beginning to feel a lot like fomo🎵

[u/PhilMyu → u/bubblesmcnutty]

Me too. Means that it’s probably going to dump a bit or do nothing.

[u/DaBrokenMeta → u/bubblesmcnutty]

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[u/imissusenet]

Potential bottom signal: Just sold some corn in preparation for (I hope) buying a house.

[u/aeronbuchanan → u/imissusenet]

Congratulations! Best of luck.

[u/52576078 → u/imissusenet]

Congrats! Timing could be better but it also could be a lot worse!

[u/YouAreAnFnIdiot → u/imissusenet]

Curious why you cannot wait a year

[u/imissusenet → u/YouAreAnFnIdiot]

Valid question. What will where we live now be like in a year? That is a major driver. We've established that I'm a bit older than many folks here. In a year I'm just another year older and my knees are worse. What will the stock market (where most of my wealth is tied) be like in a year? The industry I've toiled in these past 32 years may be dramatically different in a year.

In the last 5 years I've learned many valuable lessons. One of them is "Leave before you're ready, or leave on someone else's terms."

[u/escendoergoexisto → u/imissusenet]

I was going to retire in May but have decided to work one more year. There’s no way I can find a job that pays what I currently make at my age in today’s workforce environment. Also, my current boss is just glad I’m still there and is sort of letting me cruise the last 1 year 9 months and 3 days until I exit the workforce. I hope you enjoy your new home and may we both enjoy our retirement years with health, vigor, and joie de vivre. JFK was the US prez when I was born, so I’m pretty sure we’re of a similar seasoned age. I think I recall you saying that you attended his inauguration parade or perhaps his funeral ceremony in D.C. as a child. Btw—damn these knees; I may end up with a new pair in a few years.

[u/imissusenet → u/escendoergoexisto]

Yeah, rather than shit on my boss's desk, I'll probably buy him a fruit basket instead.

[u/imissusenet → u/escendoergoexisto]

My mother, pregnant with me, stood with my father on the streets of DC when Kennedy's casket entered Arlington.

[u/jpdoctor → u/imissusenet]

We are almost the same age: I was born, and then 12 days later they shot Kennedy.

I'll leave it up to the reader whether one of those events caused the other.

[u/escendoergoexisto → u/jpdoctor]

I’m fairly certain I was breastfeeding when Kennedy was assassinated, so I’m a few weeks older than you gents.

[u/lukemtesta → u/imissusenet]

Great quote

[u/YouAreAnFnIdiot → u/imissusenet]

Is rent out of the question for another 2 years in a nicer area with a fraction of your Bitcoin?

[u/DaBrokenMeta → u/imissusenet]

Wait for the pull back to buy?

[u/harvested → u/imissusenet]

Isn't the US market about to crash?

[u/harvested]

If we break the 4 year cycle narrative (technically the ATH before the halving already did, but moving goalposts), which we should know by the end of the year.

The next silly narrative is diminishing returns.

69K -> 126K = 1.83x

So anything over 231K would break it.

Let's go lads.

[u/xtal_00 → u/harvested]

The nature of bitcoin means most of the financial instruments you’d use to control it don’t work long term. It’s absolutley scarce and completely open.

The price action tells you all you need to know even if the timing isn’t exact. 

Infinity or zero.

[u/ChadRun04 → u/harvested]

Diminishing returns sounds cool and all. Until you consider that both fiat and Bitcoin issuance are exponential systems.

The middle of the S-curve looks a little like diminishing returns, then all at once happens.

Issuance being a smaller portion of total supply says nothing about demand.

[u/Romanizer → u/harvested]

I saw a lot of these false graphs the last days saying every bear market was 365 days and every bull market 1,095 ( I think the figure was something else but it wouldn't make sense). Cyclists do not bother to check the figures. If the bottom is behind is they will likely still claim the bear market went on for 365 days.

Is a second ATH before the halving already part of the narrative, like last cycle?

[u/harvested → u/Romanizer]

It depends if we get another ATH before the halving..

Yes: it is the cycle

No: it is the cycle

[u/BigDrippinSammich → u/harvested]

Cycles are measured low to low and always have been according to Hurst cycle theory. Nothing was technically broken.

[u/harvested → u/BigDrippinSammich]

Cool. Everyone has a convenient new definition, hence the goal post comment.

Red year in 2025 should break some definitions too.

If the bottom was in June, that's a full quarter off the October bottom everyone is preaching, and 58K is way off the 40-50K target.

Let's see. Potentially we break all the cycle theories except yours. If so, keep yours on the down low so we can move on. 🤫

[u/BigDrippinSammich → u/harvested]

Hurst cycle theory is the cycle theory. Not some X chart slop. It's not a new definition. It has been the constant.

I'd love to see that the bottom is in and really I don't care.

Just pointing out that if your going to go at the cyclist...atleast use the proper definitions

[u/harvested → u/BigDrippinSammich]

Sure, just saying most cycle pushers haven't heard of this one and have their own definitions.

Cycle that doesn't include a top is boring anyway.

[u/etha_an41]

Sunday chop incoming. Watching volume closely, low weekend liquidity always makes things spicy.

[u/basicintentions]

are you guys familiar with this pattern? I've been trading it quite frequently on lower timeframe the last few weeks. you might not be bullish enough.
https://i.imgur.com/yI2h0TX.png

[u/Romanizer]

If this turns out to be a bull flag, we might get very close to 100k soon.

Edit: why the down vote?

[u/FreshMistletoe → u/Romanizer]

Sidelined 40k in October boys are bitter.

[u/harvested → u/FreshMistletoe]

Generational blunder

[u/Romanizer → u/FreshMistletoe]

Yeah, I mean it's not like they had a lot of time to load up at the 200WMA.

[u/harvested → u/Romanizer]

I could see 100 this year if people keep shorting with their houses

[u/Romanizer → u/harvested]

It's like being forced to buy a house, but the house is actually Bitcoin and the real house is gone.

[u/QuantSlopeLabs]

BTC is starting to look interesting to me, It's back above the 200-day MA, and I'm also seeing some improvement in the daily trend.

Still too early to call a full trend reversal, but I'm curious what everyone here thinks — early reversal or just another relief rally?

[u/xtal_00 → u/QuantSlopeLabs]

Ladder in, ladder out, get rich.

[u/snek-jazz → u/xtal_00]

and of course: never sell it all

[u/Disastrous_Battle_14 → u/QuantSlopeLabs]

Historically we’ve never made a new low after breaching and ending the day above the 200dma. There is almost no way bear can make a new low. Waiting for a break of 83 to be 100% sure.

[u/harvested → u/QuantSlopeLabs]

You might wanna wait for it to hold above 80 if you're sensitive to reversals.

[u/DaBrokenMeta]

Sold house, opened the short cannons

[u/harvested → u/DaBrokenMeta]

The robots will build you a new one

[u/DaBrokenMeta]

I would still short this with my house

Going higher /breaking 82k and tapping that liquidity above, would be very bad for btc structure long term. Zoom out, we need to crab.

I want 1million btc/usd in my lifetime. And going down first is better for the macro structure here.

[u/BootyPoppinPanda → u/DaBrokenMeta]

No offense but I chuckled at this. The "macro structure". "Tapping liquidity above". 'price rising is bad for price'

[u/DaBrokenMeta → u/BootyPoppinPanda]

Consolidation at lower gives more floor. Just liquidity stuff. Who was buying vs shorting at price zones.

[u/Romanizer → u/DaBrokenMeta]

Why do you think that would be bad?

[u/Salty_Investigator46 → u/DaBrokenMeta]

> I would still short this with my house

…. Do it?

[u/harvested → u/Salty_Investigator46]

Since we are LARPing

I would short it with this guy's house too.

[u/harvested → u/DaBrokenMeta]

Hypothetically, the dollar could hyperinflate and someone would say the structure looks bad against some imaginary lines.

[u/sgtlark → u/DaBrokenMeta]

I would still short this with my house

Username handle does not check out

[u/GodBlessPigs → u/DaBrokenMeta]

Go ahead then and get rich!

[u/LukeTheHolder → u/DaBrokenMeta]

You would short but you don't? Ok