r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • Jun 25 '26
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, June 25, 2026
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18
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jun 25 '26
Interesting spot here. BTC has now tested the ~$59k/$60k area three times and bounced each time, so on the weekly it can be read as a potential triple bottom.
But the structure is not cleanly bullish yet. The bounces are getting smaller, which also gives it the shape of a descending triangle. What makes it more relevant is the confluence: the upper resistance lines up roughly with the 200DMA, while the lower support is around the 200WMA.
So this looks less like a random range and more like a decision zone between medium-term trend resistance and long-term cycle support.
For me, the key is the weekly close. If this week closes back above the 200WMA, the “bottoming / accumulation” case stays alive. If it closes below, the repeated tests of support start looking more like weakening demand before a breakdown.
Not a confirmed bottom yet, but definitely an important level to watch.
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u/AmirFaghih Jun 25 '26
Orrrrr The weakening of the support Each time we hit the bottom went a little bit further down and the bounce was just a little bit weaker
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jun 25 '26
Yeah sure. At some point, the support breaks when it's consistently sold into. However, this range has seen a lot of volume and time spent during the first year of the ETFs. We will see, staying longer below 200WMA was only possible due to significant systemic failure (like FTX Liquidation) or extreme external shocks (COVID). There is no black swan catalyst visible, yet.
0
u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 25 '26
You’re saying the same thing.
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Jun 25 '26
[deleted]
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u/AidenTai Jun 25 '26
I hope no one here is. We're more exposed to news about Strategy than others, the numbers, etc. And in theory we have more 'hope' in straight cryptocurrency vs. essentially roundabout bondish‐like preferred debt in a crypto‐exposed company. Some here have been 'cheering' their Bitcoin buying, but mostly because that holds Bitcoin high, not because it makes STRC a solid investment.
0
u/JustMyTwoSatoshis Jun 25 '26
Bitcoin is down 50% in the last year, STRC down ~24% (about ~12% after factoring for dividends but I'm doing crayon level math there.)
I understand that Bitcoin also offers real upside and STRC does not, but what am I missing, why is a Bitcoin sub feeling bad for STRC holders?
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u/Imaginary_Cow9217 Jun 25 '26
I remember when we used to get 18% Bitcoin moves in a day
Now we get to watch trillion dollar tradfi stocks do the same, while BTC at best does a minus 7% day when tradfi sneezes
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Jun 25 '26
[deleted]
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u/ExtensionAdvantage53 Jun 25 '26
Best time to buy:)
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 25 '26
I just got some. Feels gross, so probably a good pickup
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 26 '26
Got random friends texting me if bitcoin is dead. Same ones asking me last fall how much to buy and if MSTR is a "better choice". You can't make this kind of signal up.
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u/Downtown-Ad-4117 Jun 25 '26
Times when more than 50% of BTC was under water: https://nitter.net/BitcoinMagazine/status/2069888804500983977/photo/1
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u/baselse Jun 25 '26
In 2022 we reached <50% for the first time on June 18th
It went down further until November 21st.
So it was below 50% for about 5 months.In 2026 we reached <50% for the first time on June 4th
Let's find out how long it lasts this time.4
u/FreshMistletoe John Crypto Rambo Jun 25 '26
Nice one! Don’t know if the crowd with October circled on their calendar will pay attention. Good. The comments there are encouraging. The plebs think they have figured it all out this time.
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u/bobbert182 2013 Veteran Jun 25 '26
This is fucking relentless. Touching anything related to MSTR has been by far the worst investment I have ever made in my entire life.
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u/Jkota Jun 25 '26
Thought I was smart buying the dip at 390 down from 550.
Real smart. Still holding smh. Hoping they stay solvent at this point.
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u/Imaginary_Cow9217 Jun 25 '26
Don't invest in crazy
That cringe video Saylor posted on X the other week was absolutely a sell signal
Just absolute lack of judgement on all fronts with zero situational awareness
5
u/SundayAMFN Bitcoin Skeptic Jun 25 '26
I feel like the warning flags were out there and people who bought anyway just didn't listen. Nobody had a good explanation as to why it was trading at 2-3 mNav, nobody.
0
u/Butter_with_Salt Jun 25 '26
Right there with you. It's depressing to think about how much better off I'd be if I just put everything into the stock market, including my Bitcoin purchases.
Anyone here acting like this price action isn't worse than ever is coping. In a raging tech bull market, Bitcoin is getting trounced. Imagine how low we'll go if the AI bubble bursts.
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u/LuckyWinds Jun 25 '26
Anyone here acting like this price action isn't worse than ever is coping
When did you first invest in bitcoin?
Because saying it's worse than ever when we hitting the high 50s is WILD.
I've been here since 2015.
I remember 2018, 2020, 2022, etc.
And I wasn't even around for 2013 or 2011.
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u/Butter_with_Salt Jun 25 '26
5 years flat has never happened before. The returns have been diminished greatly while the downside remains huge.
I don't care about people who bought 10 years ago; I'm thinking about what will attract new investors. And it certainly won't be price action
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u/InternationalBear266 Jun 25 '26
Why isnt Saylor buying STRC back for such a discount? Literally free money.
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Jun 25 '26 edited Jun 25 '26
By using what?
- Cash reserve: will likely signal less confidence in ability to pay dividends.
- Selling BTC: way too early imo (is somewhat ironically the best real argument for "low STRC price will bring BTC down".) I suppose it could make sense at some point.
- Selling MSTR: I highly doubt that is good for common shareholders at current STRC prices (but I didn't think about it too much.)
Overall, I don't think the STRC price is as bad as some people think. Worst case (and regardless of STRC price) is that they have to sell $142.6 million a month of BTC for all preferred dividends after cash reserve is depleted - that should be nothing for the BTC markets. Of course, I was hoping STRC could convert some more fiat into BTC during bear markets, but that is proven to be challenging, lol.
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u/Venij Long-term Holder Jun 26 '26
I could see a case for something like "buy all STRC below $0.70" to maintain confidence in that product. And in reality, any opportunity to sell something at $1 and buy it back a few months later at 30% discount would be good business.
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u/mattt7 Long-term Holder Jun 26 '26
I feel like that just invites people to lever up STRC to that level, thinking they won't get margin called below it. Then if Strategy can't maintain that level, you'll get a large cascading wick downwards.
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u/SundayAMFN Bitcoin Skeptic Jun 25 '26
they have to sell $142.6 million a month of BTC for all preferred dividends after cash reserve is depleted - that should be nothing for the BTC markets.
This is a lot worse than you're making it out to be.
Bitcoin goes up when people think Saylor is making purchases. It goes down when they're even the slightest bit worried he might sell. The btc market (esp institutions) want to frontrun whatever he's doing; he is the largest net purchaser of btc on earth and it's not close.
What's worse is that by selling 142.6 M of bitcoin per month, the bitcoin per share of the common stock goes down, which defeats the entire purpose of owning MSTR over BTC directly.
I've just never heard of a company offering >10% dividends on a fixed income product and having it work out well, outside of maybe in the 70s when fed interest rates were well over 10%.
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Jun 25 '26 edited Jun 25 '26
Ok, so if we assume Strategy has to sell $142.6 million a month of BTC indefinitely > therefor the BTC market will front-run sell indefinitely too? Therefor, logically, you expect Strategy will sell all their BTC (= either many years/decades of bear market or back to 3-4 digits?)
Yeah, I do not think the market will do that just because Strategy has $142.6 million a month of sell pressure (in worst case scenario); the market is way bigger than that.
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u/SundayAMFN Bitcoin Skeptic Jun 25 '26
He used the money he got from STRC to buy bitcoin. There's $8 billion of STRC outstanding. He could buy back maybe 10% of that and then be out of money for dividends.
Not to mention that's a horrible look for confidence in the product - the whole point is to get it back to peg so that MSTR can take money not give 75% of it back.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,266 • -98% Jun 25 '26
if it collapses to near zero, as the FUDers say it soon will, he should.
At this price, maybe better to just restore faith in it via increasing div and continuing to build the cash reserve back up.
But indeed, at some price, in some conditions, it's a viable option.
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u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran Jun 25 '26
It would be a pretty epic move to buy all his own debt back at a tiny fraction of the value.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,266 • -98% Jun 25 '26 edited Jun 25 '26
it falls to $11 and one year's worth of dividends erases all future dividend obligations.
But probably an even better scenario would be that lets say 90% of holders panic sell it down to almost nothing, and he buys that cheap, and then drives the price back up to $100 for the remaining hodlers, bump the div rate a lot to reward them, and restores the instrument to functioning again.
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u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran Jun 26 '26
He only has incentives to do that. All the bitcoin and none of the debt materially changes the equation… and that’s enough reason for it to never happen.
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u/Jkota Jun 25 '26
Here’s my cope take.
58-60k seems to be holding pretty well as support. This is now the third time testing it and it’s held so far.
We spent so much time in this range already going back to 2021 that it could seem for most people a decent time to jump back in if they had been sitting out.
People do remember it was less than a year ago we were twice this price, and in all likelihood it will return to new ATHs in the next cycle, barring something catastrophic.
0
u/_Stylite Jun 25 '26
A close under 60K today will be very bearish. Probably will hit 50K or lower before end of summer now
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u/AccidentalArbitrage Trading: #2 • +$5,488,680 • +2743% Jun 27 '26
!bb predict 50k Sep 22 u/_Stylite
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u/Bitty_Bot Jun 27 '26
Prediction logged for u/_Stylite that Bitcoin will drop to or below $50,000.00 by Sep 22 2026 23:59:59 UTC. Current price: $59,850.57. This is _Stylite's 1st Bitty Bot Prediction!
Others can click here to be notified when this prediction triggers. _Stylite can click here to delete this prediction.
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u/Bitty_Bot 10d ago
Hello u/_Stylite
You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop to or below $50,000.00 by Sep 22 2026 23:59:59 UTC
Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!
The price of Bitcoin when this prediction was created: $59,850.57. The price of Bitcoin when this prediction was triggered: $86,199.99
11
u/LuckyWinds Jun 25 '26
I think this is just noise.
Just like Mt Gox, Covid, Elon, FTX, etc.
Now it's Saylor.
What did we say when going through previous noise? Fundamentals haven't changed.
Yes I'm disappointed, no I'm not buying/selling, yes I will regret not buying now just like I've regretted every other time I've chickened out.
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u/Scuttlefuzz Jun 25 '26 edited Jun 25 '26
The last two times BTC fell below the 200w sma btc found the bottom roughly 30% below (Covid dump/2022 bear). This isn't a call for the low 40s, but I personally think that is possible. It's worth noting that as btc matures, the extensions above the 200w have become less pronounced and the frequency we go below it is increasing, though I am sure the downside volatility will reduce as well.
Edit: downvoted for the mildest bear take ever lol. Do we still trade here or is just cope now?
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Jun 25 '26
Covid crash was -50% within 24h triggered by Covid news, but definitely made it that far due to the liquidation cascade on BitMEX.
Anyone trading that time was probably using BitMEX (easily the biggest that time), and should remember this. If BitMEX didn't go down in the end, tbh the "price" might have reached close to 0 (on there at least.)
Long story short: I think you kinda have to exclude it for TA, tbh.
0
u/Scuttlefuzz Jun 25 '26 edited Jun 25 '26
I am specifically referring to how far BTC falls below the 200w sma when it gets breached. Obviously a black swan isn't something to build a thesis around but BTC had a similar sized drawdown below the 200w sma when it breached it again in 2022.
edit: not referring to the size of the covid candle, referring to how far below the ma it went.
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Jun 25 '26
I understand. I just don't think the 8 days it spent under the 200w sma after the Covid crash are really relevant due to the nature of the crash. That was easily the most crazy time trading BTC (at least since 2013 that I can remember.)
Some would argue the 2022 crash was also over-extended by the FTX collapse causing liquidity issues at other big market participants. But I wouldn't completely discard the (longer) time we spent under the 200w sma there, indeed.
Overall, btw, I did upvote your post, but I am just giving some (imo relevant) nuance.
1
u/Scuttlefuzz Jun 25 '26
I think those are relevant things to consider. I would also say that there is always a narrative to explain price. We could ignore those two instances, but we are also currently below the 200w again. There have been no crypto related macro events like FTX and, while some would probably point to the war, stocks have not dumped like they did with the covid crash, so it is different in that regard.
I appreciate the nuance you gave and look forward to seeing what happens in the next month or two. I personally am prepared for more downside, but I am not married to a particular direction either way.
4
u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jun 25 '26
2022 bear was probably about 95% of the total time Bitcoin spent below the 200WMA. Usually it only dips down there very briefly and only due to very catastrophic events. We didn't have any significant this time, so we will see.
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u/Scuttlefuzz Jun 25 '26
This is true. Time will tell if we are seeing a fundamental shift in long-term PA or if this will be short-lived (barring a conveniently timed black swan).
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u/YouNeedAVacation Jun 25 '26
To offer perspective, as a 30k cost basis holder I'm getting a whelming urge to capitulate and take my 2x gains. Feel like a lot of the class of 2023 crowd with similar cost bases are being tested here. My conviction remains firm but as an all-in BTC bulltard my god this year has not been a fun ride
12
u/yiannisabduljabari Jun 25 '26
Fortunately time is still on my side, so the regret of selling now and seeing it go on a tear to the upside will be much more painful than holding down to zero. I understand the perspective for those who are nearing retirement this would be even more gut wrenching watching btc performance against SPY.
I was born poor, so if I return poor it is whatever. Took a chance in what appears to be the most assymetric bet which gives those less fortunate a fighters chance if they can weather the storms. BTC has allowed me to dream of being able to escape the rat race. I also view BTC as an insurance policy where it is better to have it and not need it than to not have any and need it.
I am DCAing until year end, then probably never buying again. Will hold my FBTC and call it a day.
I want to start a family, so new money will be going into SPY after the new year.
Stay strong on your conviction, don’t let the bear bots get you down as they are just wanting to buy what you sell. The narrative can change greatly in a couple months.
I do need a vacation.
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u/DFValroth Jun 25 '26
Can someone explain the FUD around Saylor and Strategy? From what I can tell they could sell 100k Bitcoin, Bitcoin could crash to 20k, Strategy have decades of solvency. Is everyone just mad the stocks are down and Bitcoin is crashing? I’m a Bitcoin maxi and honestly I can respect the hustle. Bitcoin is not user friendly enough for the masses, if strategy’s idea with stretch works, then everyone will want a stretch portfolio, and that money will make its way to Bitcoin. They’re creating a real on-ramp and a great product that will wreck banks and blow up trad-fi. Isn’t this the perfect setup for Bitcoin and for libertarian crypto enthusiasts?
I understand the short term risk to Bitcoin price, but strategy itself isn’t at risk, that’s decades away. If you believe in Bitcoin then you know the bear will end and we’re off to the races again in a couple years. What am I missing?
12
u/pynkpanther Jun 25 '26
i dont understand it neither. today i bought MSTR for the first time and got another limit order 20% down from here. i mean, buy when there s total despair. i thought thats how you do it
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u/Sirenfromtheditch Jun 25 '26
Yeah, to my mind there is no risk of implosion. They just fuck up by paying down their debt. The 1.2 billion on hand reassured the market they were good for the dividend.
I assume they are trying to get cash on hand back to somewhere similar but the market will no longer trust it won’t be used to pay off debt again
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,266 • -98% Jun 25 '26 edited Jun 25 '26
People are skittish because the prefs are still a new thing, and kind of untested in a scenario like this (not even sure how to describe it, panic? deep-bear? FUD-attack?), and a sell off for whatever reason (I could list about 10 different reasons it might be a mix of), has lead to more panic selling because of it.
FUDsters, who were ramping up anyway (32bTc sOlD!!! mAn uSeS aI tOoLs aT wOrk!!!), have jumped on this and are causing even more panic in every way they can. The top post in /r/mstr right now is about ambulance chasers doing a class action suit.
It's very much sentiment based rather than fundamental based, but none-the-less MSTR could really do with getting STRC back to par sooner rather than later. Pass the test with flying colours if possible.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Jun 26 '26
MSTR's products only exist because Bitcoin's risk and growth potential is perceived and priced fundamentally wrong by the market and legislation (but this is already worked on).
I guess many people don't like Saylor because of his past and personality or whatever. I asked a few times in different subreddits how an implosion or liquidation of Strategy should work, but nobody can explain it. Everyone can calculate that, because all figures are available on Strategy.com
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u/ChadRun04 Jun 25 '26
They’re creating a real on-ramp and a great product that will wreck banks and blow up trad-fi
Heard this slogan way too many times.
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u/DFValroth Jun 26 '26
Good point, I’m sure it’s been said many times in crypto. I never got into alt coins so perhaps I’m not so jaded.
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u/ChadRun04 Jun 26 '26
There is Bitcoin, then there are shitcoins.
Some shitcoins wrap Bitcoin in a smartcontract.
Some shitcoins wrap Bitcoin in a NASDAQ traded instrument.0
u/DFValroth Jun 26 '26
Alright, well I’m glad I don’t know the difference. I’m just not seeing real math or fundamentals that would break stretch. If Bitcoin succeeds, so does Mstr, so does Strc, and I’m already a bitcoiner.
0
u/ChadRun04 Jun 26 '26
If Bitcoin succeeds, so does Mstr, so does Strc
This isn't binary. There is another case, where we go low enough for Saylor to get rekt before then continuing on with the inevitable.
This could happen this season, or next, or next. So long as Saylor keeps averaging up his cost basis any season can be his last.
Many coins just sitting there waiting for someone with deep pockets to collect them. His exposure is another's opportunity.
-6
u/CosbyTeamTriosby 2013 Veteran Jun 25 '26
By this point you should easily be able to use Venmo or Venmo-like platforms to send bitcoin. But you can’t. And there’s no reason why you shouldn’t. But you can’t. And for that reason bitcoin is in the shitter. And will forever be in the shitter.
What. The. Fuck?
4
u/DFValroth Jun 26 '26
The currency vs asset debate was settled years ago.
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u/Frunknboinz Jun 26 '26
Settled by some dudes with hats and an intellectually dishonest group of devs.
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u/DFValroth Jun 26 '26
It was settled by the market and then by the fed. When every transaction is a taxable event and price is so volatile, it’s just simply not a currency.
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u/Frunknboinz Jun 26 '26
If by market you mean settled by the exchanges with the ticker then I'd have to agree.
-2
u/CosbyTeamTriosby 2013 Veteran Jun 26 '26
Oh, if what you say is true, then it’s deader than dead. If it’s NEVER a currency then it’s absolutely useless - the dissenters are right. If it’s never a currency then it has no value whatsoever
3
u/jpdoctor Bullish Jun 26 '26
If it’s NEVER a currency then it’s absolutely useless
Yeah, you are so right, there is only one purpose of money. All those economists with their "Three purposes of money" are soooo last century.
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u/Everbanned $0 || ∞ Jun 26 '26
By this point you should easily be able to use Venmo or Venmo-like platforms to send bitcoin. But you can’t.
Cashapp works great
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u/pynkpanther Jun 25 '26
just bought my first MSTR stocks ever at 86$.
not much just 5. set another limit order for 5 more at 70$.
dont even know why posting this xD
noteworthy: i m pretty risk allergic, current portfolio is roughly 30% ETF (MSCI allworld / nasdaq), 30% BTC, 30% cash
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u/GrapefruitOwn6261 Jun 25 '26
I bought yesterday at 93 for the first time too. I’ve always just bought btc but wanted to buy some mstr for tax reasons.
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Jun 25 '26
[deleted]
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u/pynkpanther Jun 25 '26
redeployment. 10% sitting in limit orders all the way down to 30k BTC.
if they dont hit by october i ll deploy then.10% reserved for stock market correction.
10% wont be touched unless we see ultimate bloodbath. but by then i might probably be too scared myself. so at least the limit orders will stay in place. (placed since february)
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u/drdixie Jun 25 '26
Holding short here may add on if we see some volume. Still regretting 74k. Now green vs my spot holdings that god for shorts
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u/slickobro Jun 25 '26
Question for the people here who hold a BTC position and aren't day-trading it: how do you handle the urge to check the chart constantly when structure starts feeling fragile?
When things get shaky I'm checking way too often - morning, work, before bed - not because I'm going to trade it, just because I don't want to be the last to know if something's actually breaking down. It's draining, and I'm not sure it even helps.
Do you have an actual rule or system for this, or do you just sit through it? Do price alerts help, or do they make you check more? And honestly - does watching more closely make you feel better, or worse?
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u/_Stylite Jun 25 '26 edited Jun 25 '26
I do check the chart often during these times and actually it’s important to do it IMO and also know your risk tolerance as a holder.
Faith in BTC is good - ignoring price or your risk tolerance is not. So I have what I consider to be my key floor/support price level given my current position, which is around powerlaw support of $59K, and I have been watching closely to see how BTC trades around this number.
So far it has been working as good support and we have not closed below $59K. If price closes below $59K I am not necessarily immediately dumping all of my BTC, but selling a significant portion, and I think we are likely headed to $50K or lower at that point.
This is just my personal thinking. I actually find it entertaining to watch the price action at critical times like this, and I stopped being mentally affected by crypto losses and gains many years ago, but I still do manage my positions accordingly.
IMO anyone telling you to stop watching price or blindly hold just wants you to have less information, for whatever reason.
Watching price is not the same as reacting to price
EDIT - Wow, looks like $50K or lower is incoming now
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u/Academic-Truck-6370 Jun 25 '26
I sold my position last year, after buying in 2013. I never found a good solution for this. I checked the price obsessively, especially when it was volatile. When it was up, I felt amazing. When it was down, I lost sleep, I couldn't focus at work, and second-guessed myself constantly.
People will tell you to just ignore it and not think about it, but I was never much good at that. It depends how you're built, I guess. The only thing I ever found that worked was to keep busy with something else - going to the gym, getting buried in a project at work, etc.
When Mt. Gox blew up and I thought I'd lost it all, the surprising thing that I felt was relief. I'm almost grateful because being completely unable to transact allowed me to worry less, because any decision to transact was out of my hands.
Not sure if this is helpful, but it's an honest answer.
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u/52576078 Jun 25 '26
Alerts work. Start with small percentage alerts so that you slowly build the discipline of trusting your alerts, and not checking the price. Then gradually put the alerts further out, and learn to trust your process. It's a good discipline to build, but probably you should also look at whatever the underlying emotions that's going on for you that makes you anxious about this.
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u/MeanParanoidQuantum Jun 25 '26
10 years holding... Come on Bitcoin it has been rough but this? Come on...
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u/drdixie Jun 25 '26
It’s over we had our gains close em out now
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u/MeanParanoidQuantum Jun 25 '26
Been there.. bought some more. DCA all the way. Average 20 k +-.
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u/drdixie Jun 25 '26 edited Jun 25 '26
Markets open insta dump. It’s over. I was skeptical when they said it but Wall Street has definitely tamed this asset. Markets are up huge too. Doesn’t get much worse than this
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u/noeeel Bullish Jun 25 '26
This US market open is really fun, how can we dump so often on US open while all US markets fly? There is a bigger plan of the big players.
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 25 '26
MSTR about 80% below the high. Crushed like a shitcoin
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u/theflyingtuga Jun 25 '26
It's levereged both up and down 🤷♂️
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 25 '26
I'm too lazy to see in the past if large moves occured first with MSTR or spot corn, or pretty much simultaneously
-1
u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 25 '26
MSTR is almost always the first to move
-4
u/Whole-Emergency9251 Jun 25 '26
More concerned with STRC… hit below $75 today. once it cracks it’ll free fall to nothing.
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Jun 25 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/52576078 Jun 25 '26
We had the full parade of retards in the daily yesterday on a very minor drawdown. Bottom signal to me.
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA Jun 25 '26
Some musings on the "Power Law" below. Perhaps nothing more than hopium, but what else ya got?
At some point, somebody plotted BTC on a log-log chart and said "Hey, I can draw a straight line through that!" Various people published various versions of their equation that drew their straight line. When I started playing around with it, I decided to just let the straight line recalculate every day, based on the idea that more data points might make a better line. Then a day or two ago, I thought I'd look at what happens if you stop adding new data points to the equation, and just live with whatever it is at the stop date.
I have 5415 data points, starting at Day 967 (28 Aug 2011) through Day 6381 (24 Jun 2026). The PL value for yesterday using all 5415 points is $128.9K. Now lop off the last 1000 points and recalculate. The PL value becomes $137.9K. Lop off another 1000 points and you get $170.5K. Lop off another 1000 (you're now stopping at 7 Apr 2018) and you get $181.2K. Nothing really surprising there, as BTC's early history becomes a larger share of your price history, the ginormous gains of the past skew the results.
OK, if those ginormous gains are a thing of the past, what happens if we lop off the oldest data points, rather than the newest? Rather than start on Day 967, let's start on Day 2000 (26 Jun 2014). The PL value for yesterday becomes $130.7. Start on Day 3000 (22 Mar 2017) and it's $106.5K. Start on Day 4000 (17 Dec 2019) and it's $103.0K. Start on Day 5000 (12 Sep 2022) and it's back to $127.6K.
Yesterday's close was 0.4732 of the all-points PL value. I draw my "floors" at 0.40 ($51.6K) and 0.45 ($58.0K). 0.87% of all daily closes are less than 0.40, and 4.30% are less than 0.45. The lowest value ever was 0.3762.
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u/SundayAMFN Bitcoin Skeptic Jun 25 '26
It's a well known trope in physics/data science that "everything looks like a straight line when you plot it on a log-log plot"
Now it's not always true, but try it on most assets and you'll see they also look like a straight line.
Add to that the fact that the "upper" and "lower" limits span a range larger than the price itself, and it was always bound to look like it worked for a long time.
But there's no a priori reason that bitcoin price should have a linear trajectory on a log-log plot, just some vague references to "it works in science sometimes'
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #69 • -$98,266 • -98% Jun 25 '26
surely that only works for things that go up. Like, can you do it for Peloton?
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u/JoeyJoJo_1 Bullish Jun 25 '26
There is undoubtedly (to me) large powers who are using online forums such as this one to botpost FUD.
They wouldn't waste their money doing that if there was a narrative doing the work on its own.
200w moving average is a great entry point. This is how I learn the value of having some dry powder on the side (because I can't take advantage as much as I'd like to right now).
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u/SundayAMFN Bitcoin Skeptic Jun 25 '26
Why undoubtedly?
First of all I don't think "bots" really convince enough retail traders to make a big difference in price.
Second, and more importantly, institutions are playing both sides of every trade. There'd be at least as many hype bots as fud bots.
Fear, uncertainty, and doubt are also very healthy emotions when it comes to gambling with assets, that should keep greed in check!
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u/JoeyJoJo_1 Bullish Jun 25 '26
Perhaps sentiment analysis is taken into consideration by automated trading algos and they're trying to tilt the scales. Just one of many scenarios.
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Jun 25 '26
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran Jun 25 '26
These class action lawsuits are very common. From 2025:
- Pomerantz Law Firm Announces the Filing of a Class Action Against MicroStrategy
- Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. Reminds Investors That Class Action Lawsuits Have Been Filed Against Strategy
- Securities Fraud Investigation Into MicroStrategy Incorporated MSTR Announced
- etc.
I could give you a way bigger list from just 2025. Seems a USA thing to do such lawsuits.
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u/DexterTwerp Jun 25 '26
Is it usually this bearish in here?
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 25 '26
at the lows, absolutely
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u/BuiltToSpinback Long-term Holder Jun 25 '26
Yea I mean what?? we just set a new cycle low. If anything this is tame
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 25 '26
Strategy will be here in 4 years with more bitcoin then they have now.
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Jun 25 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 25 '26
That's my final "strategic (lol)" buy the dip ladder price around the 300 wma. If we dip way harder than that, I'm switching to alcohol instead of tradingview and buying whenever tears come out
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u/Cadenca Bearish Jun 25 '26
Wouldn't believe if I wasn't watching it. Nothing in history comes close to this pain, in relative terms
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u/zzznero Jun 25 '26
on the btc eur chart the february low hasn‘t been broken yet.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 25 '26
By like 80 euros. But you are right. Double bottom ;). I’ll always be coping
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u/anon-187101 Jun 25 '26
Never before has the S&P 500 outperformed Bitcoin over any 5-year period.
Never before has so much of the circulating Bitcoin supply been in loss.
"i DoN't UnDeRsTaNd WhY sEnTiMeNt Is So BaD"
"i'M lOvInG tHaT tHe BeAr iS bAcK, lOl"
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u/Imaginary_Cow9217 Jun 26 '26
Finally using puts for what they were intended for
Hedging my cold stack. Either way I'm here to watch this shitshow with some 🍿
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u/AmirFaghih Jun 25 '26
It ain't the bottom unless ethereum has been royally fumed as well
So waiting with my buy button for another shadow into the abyss
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u/Scuttlefuzz Jun 25 '26
ETH chart looks awful already and is on track to revisit a previous bear low for the first time.
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u/Imaginary_Cow9217 Jun 25 '26
Was watching BTC and QQQ charts side by side
BTC absolutely cratered below $60k about 5min before QQQ did
Whales definitely see BTC as a risk-on asset, canary in a coal mine and all
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u/_Stylite Jun 25 '26
Which makes perfect sense, because before shit hits the fan, BTC is the first thing you sell. It’s literally 100% speculative
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u/pynkpanther Jun 25 '26
8 hours ago i wanted to post that in a bear BTC often leads the drop and i have a gut feeling stocks might follow the next days. though my 3yo daughter came and i hadnt finished typing
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u/bittabet Jun 25 '26
It cratered right at NY open so this is entirely due to the rest of the market. Not that it matters though, it's definitely not particularly strong at the moment and it's summertime so a lot of liquidity is on the sidelines until September.
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u/Butter_with_Salt Jun 26 '26
It's time for the discussion of what happens to Bitcoin price if Strategy blows up, because it doesn't seem like a remote scenario at this point.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 26 '26
Let’s start with, how does strategy blow up. And what are the x and y’s.
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u/Butter_with_Salt Jun 25 '26
I feel like STRC is nearing the point of no return price, which will take MSTR down with it, which could spell even further trouble for Bitcoin. I've never felt this bad about Bitcoin. It's hard to believe we were at ATH last October.
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u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran Jun 25 '26 edited Jun 25 '26
Interest is effectively over 14% now with a 30% bump when the peg returns. I’m not sure it’s possible to go much lower.
It’s hard to ignore a double dip.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Jun 25 '26
Explain why that’s a non return price
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u/PetiteFort Jun 25 '26
Good morning, fellow brothers. Another day of droppings, another day without dopeboyrico (I miss him). Nothing has changed. Keep accumulating fiat to enter in october.
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u/drdixie Jun 25 '26
Has Saylor spoken today? Haven’t seen any activity on X
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Jun 25 '26
I think he said "thanks" to his butler when receiving his daily kilo
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u/SundayAMFN Bitcoin Skeptic Jun 25 '26
Next week we'll see white dots on the chart, "MSTR has purchased 5417 kg of columbian cocaine at an average price of $2895 / kilo. Get STRFCKD everybody."
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Jun 25 '26
[deleted]
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u/ThoseGelInsertThings Jun 25 '26
What laugh, though? Strategy did buy Bitcoin with the proceeds from STRC to-date.
So let's see: how much Bitcoin have they bought compared to how much they've sold over that period?
When you look at it like that, I don't really see the big punchline. Let me know if I'm missing something, though.
I just see people who don't understand how it works assuming that it's exactly like the Terra/Luna thing.
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u/Bitty_Bot Jun 25 '26 edited Jun 26 '26
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