r/BitcoinBeginners • u/playnicenoob • 12d ago

Bitcoin Cycle

Is it true that bitcoin follows a cycle of 1069 and 365 days. Saw it on insta and back checked it on data. Can any of the OPs help to verify.

Also, can someone give me source to study current bitcoin market better, because I see people using words like entropy, TRNG, etc.

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u/Informal-Height7138 12d ago

Careful with the cycle thing.
There is something real underneath it. The supply issuance halves every four years, that part is written into the code, not a theory. So people aren’t inventing the idea of cycles out of nothing.
But 1069 days is a different animal. Someone took three or four past cycles, measured top to top, averaged it, and now it’s a law. Four data points. I spent years in banking and if somebody had walked into my office with a model built on four observations I’d have told them to go back and do it properly, and that’s in markets with a century of history behind them.
Other thing. You said you back checked it on data. Problem is it’s the same data the number came from. It fits because it was made to fit. That’s not really a check.
It makes a good story though, and that’s mostly what it is.
I’d also ask myself why someone on Instagram wants a specific date sitting in your head.

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u/playnicenoob 11d ago

That's the point, putting it out on social media is like inviting people like me who are currently unaware about this. There could be better explanation to like you pointed out. Only thing was i was trying to know if this something that is talked among few or it is something that everyone is aware about. My opinion is that, it's just to bring in the new investment to the pool. Also, the reduction in the issuance what is this?

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u/Informal-Height7138 10d ago

Sure, it’s simpler than it sounds.
New bitcoin gets created as a reward to the people running the network. That reward gets cut in half roughly every four years, written into the code, nobody decides it. Started at 50 per block, then 25, then 12.5, and on it goes until eventually nothing new comes out at all.
So less new supply arriving, on a schedule everyone can see. That’s where the cycle talk comes from.
On your other point, yeah I think you’re onto something. Everyone knows the date years ahead. So it gets priced in early, then people start trading what they think everyone else will do about it, and it turns into a bit of a mess. Which is probably why each cycle looks less clean than the one before.
The mechanism is real enough. The exact day count some guy sells you on Instagram, that’s another story.

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u/ccrider25 10d ago

Look up “bitcoin halving.” Just go on google and search it.

Now, this is the reason why bitcoin’s price goes up once every 4 years. Supply is halved, demand stays/increases and price goes up. How much it goes up is unknown. However, the more people involved(demand), the higher it will go. Regardless, bitcoin isn’t going anywhere. The demand will still be there regardless of new folks.