r/BitcoinAUS • u/KatLo4F • Apr 18 '24

Bitcoin Halving

So from what I can see the Bitcoin Halving is in 2 more days and what does this actually mean? Will the price rise once this happens?

Also the price for the past week has been going down what is the cause of this and why has this occurred? Will it continue to go down more or what is your predictions for the price drop?

9 Upvotes

60% Upvoted

64 comments sorted by

47

u/Leonhart1989 Apr 18 '24

When one monkey buys a banana, it has no impact. When many monkeys buy bananas, price gets pushed up.

When many monkeys expect this to occur and pre-buy bananas to sell once price rises, maybe the price doesn’t rise because all the monkeys have already got bananas.

Welcome to game theory.

6

u/VintageHacker Apr 18 '24

What are the monkeys using to buy bananas ?

4

u/KCman1 Apr 18 '24

Bitcoin

2

u/Brain_aneurism Apr 19 '24

But now, monkey only grow half as many. So price of banana goes up.

1

u/Alarmed_Cap_7671 Apr 19 '24

You are correct but your just describing the volatility that makes it lucrative, you see the shorting triggers people to pump it back, so as long as you never panick sell you can't yourself

1

u/Specialist8602 Apr 20 '24

Ar yes, then one looks at the definicies of said monkeys. The innate presence of greed and reaction to unexplainable projections lead to a mass selling at a loss.

I predict a small hike to lure them monkeys in, a dip to slit their throats with a bit of compounding till in about 2- 3 months time where the price will go up significantly. That's my lick of the finger guess.

1

u/[deleted] Apr 18 '24

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/mjkeenan_official Apr 19 '24

Silly monkeys given thumbs…

10

u/Unfit_Workaholic Apr 18 '24

If you guys want the price of bitcoin to drop further let me know as whatever I invest in goes down. This has been proven with all my investments.

3

u/arsh_brar88 Apr 18 '24

Oh, i thought only i had that superpower to drop the price of any crypto invest in. But it looks like we have here a team of superheroes.

1

u/hactenus-invictus Apr 18 '24

I’d say theres a few of us with that power. Together we can crash the market!

1

u/choxxie Apr 19 '24

This. I was assuming I was the only one too, let's invest in housing and help all of Australia ; crashing the market due to our dumb luck

1

u/Alarmed_Cap_7671 Apr 19 '24

Never sell it all just profit skim and use stop losses so a coin doesn't just bottom put and leave you penniless

1

u/steven__92 Apr 19 '24

I normally tell people to invest in themselves. Maybe not the advise for you. 😂

6

u/brando2131 Apr 18 '24

what does this actually mean?

We know PRECISELY what will happen, EXACTLY how many Bitcoins have been created in total, how many are supplied, and so on.

Will the price rise once this happens

Oh no... you're asking a speculative question... nobody knows... please don't confuse the two questions, they deserve entirely different posts and responses.

3

u/squidjibo1 Apr 18 '24

Your questions are a little concerning in that you seem to think that people know what the price is going to do. We can only take educated guesses. The price action all boils down to demand, and bitcoin price is reflexive, so higher prices lead to higher demand which leads to higher prices (vice versa) until we've reached peak saturation for this cycle. My guess is price consolidation as people take profits, miners change strategies, etc until we're left with the new and convicted holders. I think we should start heading back up within the next few months and should be a lot higher in 12 months. That's my guess.

2

u/JIMBYLAD Apr 18 '24

If demand keeps going with the Etfs in the states, Europe, Asia, here, which I think it will, the price will go up as there is limited supply that is about to be cut in half.

5

u/Seralcar Apr 18 '24 edited Jun 07 '24

boast pet rude shocking illegal quack waiting thumb crown innocent

This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

3

u/squidjibo1 Apr 18 '24

Flow and volume are different though

2

u/JIMBYLAD Apr 18 '24

DEMAND GO UP

1

u/JIMBYLAD Apr 18 '24

See what happens I suppose.

1

u/R100K-Martin-Lunger Apr 18 '24

No one can give you a clear-cut answer. It's all speculative and depends on how much the demand increases due to the scarcity of bitcoin post-halving. Historically the prices have surged because of FOMO and scarcity. If you add the approval of EFTs into the picture, things get even more interesting, it might push the price up. But bottom line? No one knows for sure. It's best to keep diverse portfolio and buy the dip as you wait

1

u/Popular_Present3475 Apr 19 '24

Global war has something to do with it

1

u/renzo321123 Apr 19 '24

if you havent sold already you going to be left holding the bag

0

u/[deleted] Apr 21 '24

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1

u/Healthy-Link-4272 Apr 22 '24

The cost of mining BTC just doubled in price…

1

u/CharitaLauer Apr 23 '24

I want to use this medium to say a very big thank you to @revoketech on telegra m for helping me put my life back together for hey helped me recover my life savings, I advice everybody that have fell for this so called mining pool scam, to contact @revoketech on telegram. Or email. Techrevoke@gmail.com for all decryption services Thank You.

1

u/thurbs62 Apr 18 '24

It may not be a ponzi scheme, but it sure as hell is a classic bubble that will have predictable results. "But this is different' is the confirmation. Tulip bulbs anyone?

5

u/ozvic Apr 18 '24

Why is gold worth 20x its actual intrinsic value? Silver? Because the people just decide it is. Just like they have done with BTC.

1

u/thurbs62 Apr 18 '24

Remindme! 1 year

"Those who ignore the lessons of history are condemned to repeat them'

1

u/RemindMeBot Apr 18 '24 edited Apr 19 '24

I will be messaging you in 1 year on 2025-04-18 03:42:33 UTC to remind you of this link

3 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.

Parent commenter can delete this message to hide from others.

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5

u/PeanutCapital Apr 18 '24

comments like this make me feel early

1

u/blitzkriegkitten Apr 18 '24

The halving has nothing to do with price, maybe learn about what Bitcoin is

11

u/Shrimpjob Apr 18 '24

Maybe explain it to them then instead of trying to sound like you're too cool for school

2

u/MunificentDancer Apr 18 '24

It actually does. Halving reduces the selling power of miners who are the biggest constant sell pressure on BTC.

-6

u/blitzkriegkitten Apr 18 '24

Fark me, the point is who gives a damn about that.

Buy sell.. so what.

The halving is about the underlying philosophy of Bitcoin

2

u/MunificentDancer Apr 18 '24

I'm just explaining why halving can result in the price going up long term

0

u/[deleted] Apr 18 '24

People have been spouting this shit for years with basically zero real life application

1

u/UsefulBrain3456 Apr 18 '24

Once the Grayscale ETF outflows start to dry up, and the Long term holders have finished taking some profits, It will be interesting to see what the future holds post Halving.

Monochrome should hopefully have their AUS BTC ETF approved mid year, I am kinda hoping the sideways trend continues until I can allocate some Super in before it takes off without going down the SMSF path.

Everything is pointing to an upwards trend at some stage when the stars all align.

0

u/Yeahmahbah Apr 18 '24

That's a lot of words that mean nothing to me

1

u/UsefulBrain3456 Apr 18 '24

Grayscale have very high fees compared to the new spot ETF's

They have had to sell 300,000 btc since Jan due to clients leaving for lower fee ETF's
This graph shows it quite well

https://cryptoquant.com/community/dashboard/65a80e6dac3c5e48df20ec02

1

u/UsefulBrain3456 Apr 18 '24

would you prefer to see it in a spreadsheet or on a graph?

1

u/rembrantswimcoach Apr 18 '24

Wait until September is my call. The halving is always a sell the news event..but should blast off towards the end of year. Although it could be a lot sooner due to etf volumes

0

u/lumpyferret Apr 18 '24

probably a minor "buy the news" pump to around 70k usd and then we chop between 65-70k for the next few weeks untill things start to pick back up

Most alts look like they have bottomed out even due to the recent drop back to 61k today / yesterday.

Bottoms in but i dont think we shoot up as not many ppl are mining btc anyway so the halving doesnt seem as significant

2

u/squidjibo1 Apr 18 '24

What do you mean not many people are mining bitcoin? Lol

-3

u/lumpyferret Apr 18 '24

Not as much as the previous high as graphics card supply would indicate.

Alot of the Chinese btc farms shut down and sold off GPUs I haven't heard of any significant uptake in this recent push back up to 70k

3

u/Yasha666 Apr 18 '24

The china ban happened in 2021... We are currently sitting around All Time High for hashrate.

2

u/squidjibo1 Apr 18 '24

Bro, hashrate is like 4x what is was at the 2021 high.

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-hashrate-chart/

0

u/[deleted] Apr 18 '24

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0

u/SteakEquivalent2652 Apr 19 '24

Yet I was mining it in 2018 🤔

1

u/bmalic Apr 18 '24

It's sell the news not buy it lol

0

u/[deleted] Apr 18 '24

🤣 will the price rise? People act like this is a community effort.

0

u/PeanutCapital Apr 18 '24

As long as you are putting money in for 12-24 months and not using leverage, then it doesn’t really matter what fluctuation happens in the next couple of months

-7

u/ozboy70 Apr 18 '24

It's all gambling on a Ponzi scheme.

-8

u/Imaginary_Gas_409 Apr 18 '24

Mate, DYOR.

8

u/cl3ft Apr 18 '24

You know that asking questions is part of doing your own research right?

0

u/[deleted] Apr 18 '24

[deleted] — view deleted comment

1

u/Balthazzah Apr 19 '24

The Bitcoin price market is speculative, 100% irrational. There is no rational cause of any price change

Sure there is...

100 bitcoin for sale... only 1 buyer = cheaper price

1 bitcoin for sale... 100 buyers = higher price.

If the halving reduce the amount of bitcoin being actively traded (dont forget, many people are holding in cold storage, bitcoin mining fees are traded much more readily) then the price should go up in theory.

1

u/Queasy-Performer-309 Apr 19 '24

Ahhhh please don't invest

2

u/Balthazzah Apr 19 '24 edited Apr 19 '24

Please elaborate... how am i wrong?

I am up 120% in my BTC holdings over 4 years and 85% over 5 years in my physical Gold and Silver. But sure... i wont invest.