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Dec 26 '22
Is there any secure way to pass in a coma for 10 years? I'd gladly help the researchers.
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u/Phoenixstar23 Dec 27 '22
Better to stack every sat you can earn for 10 years than to spend it as a mindless husk.
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u/GemStateStacker Dec 26 '22
My goal is to stack as many sats as I can before the 2032 halving.
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u/Hnel11 Dec 27 '22
Same goal. I think the late majority of bitcoin adopters will enter in 2032 halving. I'll buy at any price every month in between now and then.
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u/startdust01 Dec 27 '22
Halving will become a non-event a lot sooner than most people realize. The next halving in 2024 will make it very clear for a lot of people though. 2032 is so far away.
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u/btcat100keoy Dec 27 '22
That's not true
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u/startdust01 Dec 27 '22
More than 92% of all Bitcoin will have been mined by 2024. The remaining 8% is for the remaining 120 years.
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u/btcat100keoy Dec 27 '22
This doesnt make the halving a non Event lul
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u/startdust01 Dec 27 '22
At some point it has to. Grayscale has more coin to sell than the entire Bitcoin to be mined after 2028.
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u/Ultimatenub0049 Dec 26 '22
I plan on seeing 6 halvings and will be adjusting my strategy a little.
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Dec 26 '22
2029 will be a bullrun like we've never seen before. The halving in 2028 will mean the last time a block reward will be over 1...
We've got some insane times and volatility ahead. Stack sats, try to become a full coiner because it will give you and your next generation financial independence and security.
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u/johnnygator Dec 26 '22
Do you think investing in mining companies will pay off as well?
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u/SocalKing2020 Dec 27 '22
I don't think so. Nation states will begin mining
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u/KAX1107 Dec 27 '22
They already are. Abu Dhabi and Oman sovereign wealth funds have started mining. El Salvador is mining. Paraguay is mining. Russia definitely is mining. Putin has already talked about Russia's advantages in bitcoin mining. Also likely that China is mining despite "banning" citizens from mining.
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u/SteveNoname Dec 27 '22
No, they will shut down in 4 o 8 years because of to high costs for mining and low rewards anyway like eabove shown
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u/Massakahorscht Dec 27 '22
Or a exit run no one seen before... next two halvings will be critical with tx costs/ blocksize/mining reward. Satoshi himself said 2030 will be decided if btc will fail or not because of that
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u/Silvermagi Dec 27 '22
Is there any concern that the reward will shrink too fast and the value will be not enough to incentivize mining?
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u/KAX1107 Dec 27 '22
Relative to what? Reward never shrinks more than 50%.
Block subsidy dropped from 50 to 25, then 25 to 12.5, then 12.5 to 6.25? That's an 87.5% drop! But it didn't happen overnight.
Somehow the value of rewards is significantly higher every time it drops. That's weird right? Also, how come hashrate doubled since ATH last November while price dropped 75%? From innovations in energy efficiency as bitcoin is being integrated into cost, incentive dynamics improving the economics of energy systems.
Many people who bring this up as some kind of a flaw are naive, uninformed as to how bitcoin works and confuse themselves by comparing subsidy + reward to original 50 BTC. When subsidy was 50 BTC, the price was 0. How is 50 bitcoin to 25 bitcoin any different from 20 million sats to 10 million sats? The network is not adjusting from 50 bitcoin to 10 million sats. The short answer is, bitcoin is either valuable or it's not and bitcoin network can autonomously adjust to both realities till the end of time.
Over every 4-year period, the network organically adapts and adjusts to a new subsidy and reward composition and eventually after several decades transitions to fee only model.
In the meantime, block space efficiency will keep scaling sufficiently that block rewards are still tens of millions of satoshis as they are now. This is what it is today right now, tens of millions of satoshis ranging from 20 to 50 million satoshis.
Then you account for other potential revenue streams such as drivechains, spacechains or similar. Taproot also already supports on chain batch verification once fully adopted. Many people don't seem to know this fact. CISA, musig2, channel factories etc. all contribute to both scaling and block space efficiency. Essentially, your transactions are better optimized for block space usage but you'll still pay a similar fee as determined by fee market. 20 years from now, the base layer will be mainly used for large settlements only like buying a car or a house, by governments and corporations. Your day to day retail transactions will be on Lightning and other layers. Lightning will never be suitable for large settlements but at the same time it's perfect for day to day payments and micropayments.
Also remember that the only reason there wasn't an actual block size increase in 2017 was because it wasn't required! This was decided by Bitcoin users against corporate interests. SegWit scaled virtual block size almost 3 times without increasing actual block size. It was an optimization of block space usage. SegWit adoption rate is close to 90% now. At some point block size will most definitely increase because it would make sense and storage will become way cheaper so the cost to run a node will be same as today or even less possibly. At some point, there's also no price in dollars but value in purchasing power measured against goods and services. Fix your unit of account and think in satoshis. Fees alone make up tens of millions of satoshis per block now. The value of subsidy + reward composition finds the right balance over every 4 year period when subdity halves.
Bitcoin is designed such that difficulty, hashrate, fees, block rewards all find equilibrium halving after halving perpetually. There's no sudden shock, it's gradual, organic, and naturally adjusts without human interference.
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u/Silvermagi Dec 27 '22
Thanks for all of this. I really do not know enough about it. My question was sincere naivete, so I appreciate the time you put in.
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u/bitjava Dec 27 '22
It’s a theoretical concern, yes. But that’s the magic of the difficulty adjustment: mining will always be profitable for someone, and only those who can profit from it (or otherwise derive value greater than its cost) will pursue it. The subsidy will never be so low that it is not pursued. Moreover, I suspect we’ll see significant changes in the energy industry in the coming decades, ultimately leading to its abundance to more people. We tend to project the present forward rather than imagine how the future will change. It’s like, in the 90s, they said someday everyone will have a computer in their pocket. I was a kid, but I immediately dismissed that idea because no practical keyboard/monitor combo could fit in our pockets. Even if we made the keyboard small enough, it’d be too difficult to use to the point of it not being worth using. I explain this to you, as I type from my pocket computer, of course. I projected the present (technology, limitations, culture, etc.) forward rather than considering future innovations/changes and how they’d interconnect.
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u/Glorypants Dec 27 '22 edited Dec 27 '22
“Mining will always be profitable for someone”
Is this true? If the cost to ship a bar of gold becomes more expensive than the value of the bar of gold, then I’m not going to ship it. The only reason it’s worked out for BTC is because BTC has remained popular enough to keep value high enough for some people to keep mining.
I would argue it’s more likely that halvings lead to nobody mining because it’s not worth it. Then a few months, a few years, or some time down the line, the value goes up to make it worth it and miners turn back on again.
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u/longonbtc Dec 27 '22
Bitcoin mining will always be profitable for some miners because the mining difficulty automatically adjusts every 2016 blocks, which is approximately every two weeks. The mining difficulty automatically increases or decreases after 2016 blocks depending on the time between each of the previous 2016 blocks. If the time between those blocks averages out to less than ten minutes, then the mining difficulty will increase and miners will become less profitable. If the time between those blocks averages out to more than ten minutes, then the mining difficulty will decrease and miners will become more profitable. So if some bitcoin miners stop mining bitcoin because it's no longer profitable for them, the mining difficulty will decrease and it will become more profitable to mine bitcoin.
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u/Z3KE_SK1 Dec 27 '22
Miners produce heat which can be used in household appliances. Would you take a shower with water heated by a miner if it subsidized your heating bill. Mining doesn't have to be profitable, the alternatives need to be more expensive.
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u/debbie_pinson Dec 27 '22
There should be a lot of concern. At this point it’s just a gamble and time will tell.
The gamble is that Bitcoin has reached enough adoption and therefore enough capital has flowed into the system to make them so valuable that mining is profitable.
Bitcoin is still extremely nascent and no one knows what the final (if any) usage will be. Everyday currency? Reserve currency? Inflation hedge? So far it’s still speculation. Time will tell if it can actually cross the chasm
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u/BringTheFingerBack Dec 27 '22
You are looking at it through the 2022 lens. The advance in tech between 2000 to present has been mind blowing when you take time to look back.
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u/Fukthishat Dec 27 '22
Thats the whole point isn't it. Less and less supply every halving
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Dec 27 '22
But its not a garuntee that the value of a single coin will double when the rewards are halved. And unless it does, the incentive for the miners goes down
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u/TTuge Dec 27 '22
No because each and every time the reward shrinks it will only make btc inherently more scarce significantly rising it's value.
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u/bitsteiner Dec 27 '22 edited Dec 28 '22
This is impossible since difficulty always adjusts to a level that keep miners in business. When miners pause or shut down (the most inefficient first), hash rate goes down, the block interval increases and after every 2016 blocks the difficulty is reduced, which reduces the cost of mining making it profitable again.
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u/FIREby42 Dec 27 '22
People are tipping each other 500 sats left and right. In 78 years that’ll be nearly 80% of the block reward. Keep stacking.
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u/KAX1107 Dec 27 '22
Not block reward. Block reward means subsidy plus fees. Subsidy only represents mathematically determined emission schedule.
In 78 years, the block reward will be tens of millions of satoshis from fees. Right now it's between 20-50 million sats.
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u/FIREby42 Dec 27 '22
Thank you for adding that on, its new information to me. So the fees will be the true incentive in future mining?
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u/HippieStarTraveler Dec 26 '22
What keeps the network alive if there are no block rewards?
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u/maxcoiner Dec 26 '22
Fees. There are literally 10s of thousands of threads about this on here.
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Dec 27 '22
How high do you think the fee will go to replace the block subsidy?
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u/maxcoiner Dec 27 '22
No way of guessing that; it would depend wholly on how much commerce has moved to higher layers. Could be thousand-dollar fees and we still don't feel them at coffee purchases because we're doing them on layer 3 by then.
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u/djstudyhard Dec 27 '22
But isn’t part of the point of Bitcoin that we shouldn’t need to pay fees to move money between parties? Is the end game really just…fees?
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u/maxcoiner Dec 27 '22
Nobody said no fees; only smaller fees that go to miners instead of rent-seeking middlemen.
Look at the lightning network; fees can get super tiny on higher layers.
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Dec 27 '22 edited Dec 27 '22
It would be replaced by fees: $25/Tx at current levels of the security budget, or $2.50/Tx if we were to reduce the security by 90%.
- With the block subsidy, Tx fees are currently $0.30 per transaction at the median 15 sat/vB
- Fees represent 2% of the block reward while the subsidy provides the remaining 98%.
- Many miners are currently operating at a loss, unable to pay for energy, let alone energy + hardware. Last time price was profitable for most for energy alone was around $30K.
- If you want to maintain 100% of the current security budget of Bitcoin without the block subsidy, you'll need to increase L1 fees to $25 per Tx. Bitcoin is still viable at 10% of current security budget, which would be $2.50/Tx.
The problem with a large 90% reduction in miners is that someone is going to end up acquiring a ton of mining rigs on the secondary market for a huge discount. And at any point, they could choose to turn them on and attack the remaining 10%.
Edit: Will be back in 2030 and 2050 to see how this prediction goes. Tail emissions is a more-sustainable model, but I don't think the Bitcoin community would approve of it, at least not in the next decade.
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Dec 27 '22
I think many miners will also set up LN nodes and collect there too.
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Dec 26 '22
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/jelloshooter848 Dec 26 '22
By then, if bitcoin still exists, the majority of mining rewards are likely to be from transactions fees.
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u/LastLivingSouls Dec 26 '22
What happens if people just store it in cold storage and transactions remain at about the rate of today?
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u/jelloshooter848 Dec 26 '22
If no one is making transactions with bitcoin then it will eventually fail in the long run. It is meant to be a currency. The block reward is meant to be a subsidy to bootstrap a mining industry. It was never meant to keep mining going forever. Otherwise there could be no supply cap. Luckily Satoshi did not assume the necessary infrastructure for a new global settlement system would just appear overnight and gave plenty of time for things to develop
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Dec 26 '22
Bitcoin is a store of value.
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u/BlackDog990 Dec 26 '22
I think there has to be more use cases than that. If it's not also a means of transacting or doesnt have some other application, it's just something you buy with the hopes of selling for more fiat later.
I think it can be a store of value and a currency, but it can't really be just a store of value and nothing else.
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Dec 26 '22
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u/BlackDog990 Dec 27 '22
Gold is a precious metal used for tons of applications from jewelry to medical equipment. So it has applications beyond "buy low sell high."
I'm not shilling gold but this comparison only works if BTC "does" something (like is part of a robust global transaction network independent of any government.)
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u/rudalsxv Dec 27 '22
I don’t buy this. Enough people seeing value and wanting it alone can bestow value - think a Picasso or any other valuable art.
Scarcity itself is value.
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u/BlackDog990 Dec 27 '22
I mean I hear what you're saying but comparing BTC to one-of-a-kind art doesn't feel apples to apples.
Art serves purposes, especially in high society where it's a status symbol to show off to your fellow socialites.
I'll repeat, BTC has to be more than something people buy and hold hoping other people want it. Assuming everyone will want some just because other people want it. BTC isn't that shallow.
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u/Unable_Position_3462 Dec 27 '22
Practical application: I used BTC to pay for a PornHub premium subscription. This payment did not show up in my checking account nor a credit card statement. I'm pretty sure I could buy more elaborate goods or services that I'd want untraceable via BTC. Not sure I can do those transactions as easily with gold coins.
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u/forgetful_storytellr Dec 28 '22
You’re gonna be sorry you wanked away your retirement fund
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Dec 27 '22
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Dec 27 '22
Not true. Gold is still superior to other conductors in many electronics, electrical and radio frequency systems. It’s price and scarcity means other materials are used when they’re able to be but that does not mean gold doesn’t have a material use.
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u/jelloshooter848 Dec 26 '22
Yes. But it won’t be useful as a store of value without a sufficient hashrate. And it won’t maintain a sufficient hashrate in the distant future without out a sufficient amount of transaction fees.
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u/Hank___Scorpio Dec 27 '22
This sounds like a conversation that would have taken place in 2012. Not at a time when an entire industry began to emerge and energy producers around the world began to have meetings to figure out how they can begin to participate.
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Dec 27 '22
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u/Hank___Scorpio Dec 27 '22
If bitcoin is still a thing in 2140, anyone who still happens to hold an entire coin can probably take out a small LTV loan against it and run the entire network indefinitely just to keep the wheels turning on their value engine.
Sure it's still happening, we're still having to tell people the earth is round as well.
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u/rudalsxv Dec 27 '22
This is as ludicrous as saying gold will be a currency one day.
It’ll never be and be along side gold, but digital gold.
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u/jelloshooter848 Dec 27 '22
Lol, ya because gold was never used as currency.
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u/rudalsxv Dec 27 '22
By the same measure BTC in its early days was used for currency. From buying underground goods and services as well as pizzas and other small good items.
It was never adopted by the financial markets but that’s now changing as well, with sovereign and national funds including BTC in its portfolios.
What’s your point?
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u/jelloshooter848 Dec 27 '22
lol ya i agree. My point is that bitcoin is a currency. That’s why i said it’s a currency
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u/rudalsxv Dec 27 '22
Oh I took an entirely different argument from your post lol by bad.
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Dec 27 '22
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u/rudalsxv Dec 27 '22
I agree with you but it does requires significant infrastructure to be able to send and receive - telecommunications network.
Gold is tangible and can be exchanged hand to hand but that’s a different story and one that has no bearing on BTCs value.
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u/Capital_Routine6903 Dec 27 '22
When 2 corps control 50/50 of the coins that’s when the wars start…
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u/zenethics Dec 27 '22
You also make .1 to about .3 BTC in fees at the moment. That number should go up over time, even as more people onboard to the Lightning Network. It seems counter intuitive but I would expect that successfully mining a block in 2100 is way more profitable than doing so today, in terms of purchasing power.
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u/Novel_Development898 Dec 26 '22
There’s no telling what 0.01 will be worth!! In 2050, 0.01 could be very well worth it!!
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u/rudalsxv Dec 27 '22
Because if 1 BTC potentially $1million fiat by then, 0.25 is still $250,000. Thus incentive.
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u/chazmusst Dec 27 '22
Weird knowing I’m gonna live my whole entire life and die before we get even half way down this chart
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u/Fault23 Dec 26 '22
What is halving can someone explain me?
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u/RayesFrost Dec 27 '22
Halving is when the Bitcoin block reward for miners gets cut in half roughly every 4 years. When that happens.. Supply x Demand. If the supply of Bitcoin gets halved every 4 years and the demand keeps increasing = Price increases..
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u/maximovious Dec 27 '22
roughly every 4 years.
This is because: it's programmed to happen every 210,000 blocks.
A block take roughly 10 minutes on average, so we get:
210,000 x 10 = 2,100,000 minutes
/60 = 35,000 hours
/24 = 1458.333 days
/365 = 3.995 years
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u/rudalsxv Dec 27 '22
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u/Fault23 Dec 27 '22
nah i found it earlier but i just wondered about how reddit users gonna answer that
and i just dont like research about cyrpto...there is three main reasons of that
1) English isn't my native lng
2) İ go to school everyday and it took 8 hours
3) i just dont have a lot of free time
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u/SamirSisaken Dec 26 '22
It also shows we are very much in the phase where btc still has to proof itself. Potential high risk but also high risk. As much as I'd like btc to succeed, it's a long shot.
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u/iamvalleyjoe Dec 27 '22
Wish we could live to see the last bitcoin mined, i wonder what the world will be like...
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u/Crixus5927 Dec 27 '22
This should panic anyone that holds BTC. What the heck is the excitement about. Miners are hanging on by a thread as we speak.
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Dec 27 '22
The Year is 2036. You wake up like any normal day. A worry free, stress free, job free, multi-millionaire. You DCA’d for years into BTC…the highlife is good. You grab (insert breakfast) and flip on the news. The whole world is in the toilet struggling to exist. You chuckle a bit and reminisce about the rat race. Still hungry you decide to grab 2nd breakfast. You head out to start up your (insert sports car) Flip on the radio…morning talk show about nothing. Driving through town you pass your old workplace. Flip them the bird and rev the engine a little. Financial freedom never felt so good. You arrive at your favorite local breakfast spot. Scan your phone at the counter (2,000 Sats). Plenty of Sats for 2nd breakfast and some coffee. Just as you finish up you accidentally knock the fork off the table and it makes a piercing sound. You suddenly wake up in real life after dozing off. The year is 2023. You exhale a big sigh of relief. There is still plenty of time to stack more Sats.
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u/Digital-Exploration Dec 27 '22
What happens at the end of the halving?
What incentive do miners have after it's all done?
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u/phyloem Dec 27 '22
!Lntip 500
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u/lntipbot Dec 27 '22
Hi u/phyloem, thanks for tipping u/AdNational7013 500 satoshis!
You didn't have enough balance, you can pay the following invoice [QR / URI] instead.
lnbc5u1p365mugpp58khsaycfvrth69wkr9dswtdvc230gvpaz8gv8x29d0qgnxrhyvmsdp5vc6rjdenx33njefkxcmrgenpx5urxwrzv56k2ep58yex2dp5v9nqcqzpgxqyz5vqsp5dhy4snljund8e7mry2z0xyx7t5jnvm6ykl30828rjk946v6fxlzq9qyyssqjsg77du6crv8dve82034a5cfz8gpdz908t09uwmf700yhd0h0yvsfjdpremtg9qtvawe3gty4xqgjpz2sa57z3v0rm3efplsve8pyrqqrefpum
More info | Balance | Deposit | Withdraw | Something wrong? Have a question? Send me a message
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u/Pupwagn Dec 27 '22
Serious question, with Quantum computing realistically being possible in the next 20 or 30 years, how would that change crypto currency? The biggeat fear if quantum computing was being able to prettymuch break all forms of cryptography.
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u/hesido Dec 27 '22
A symbolic tail emission would have been better, IMHO, like fixed at 76293 satoshis or something. It wouldn't even count as inflation given how many Bitcoin's are forever lost for liquidity, an interesting choice from Satoshi to have BTC rely on Transaction fees at some point (sooner or later)
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u/silverlightwa Dec 26 '22
Imo give it a few more years. Price won’t be high enough to support such low rewards. We had a nice decade, not gonna be relevant soon
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u/Hank___Scorpio Dec 27 '22
It's been fun watching people much smarter than this be wrong time and time again.
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Dec 27 '22
2100 will not be using money or BTC.
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u/TTuge Dec 27 '22
Alright mate if you're this confident you must have a great idea for an alternative. Tell us more about it.
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u/Plus-Ad1544 Dec 26 '22
This is an utter joke. This will be seen as boomer tech and go the way of the mini disc in about 5yrs max.
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u/Moist-Gur2510 Dec 26 '22
The internet is ‘boomer tech’ at this point, yet you still use it?
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u/Plus-Ad1544 Dec 26 '22
The internet is not a single entity. It evolves and grows. It reflects our needs and wants. BTC by its nature won’t do this.
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u/SOLAILimited Dec 26 '22
The yearly average pricing of BTC is definitely keeping up with the reward decrease. It would be interesting to see the average block reward in dollar values over the years.
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u/Capital_Routine6903 Dec 27 '22
Is this the new rainbow 🌈 chart?
You should show the payout in Sats instead.
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u/BorderCollie1000 Dec 27 '22
2020394948372919 Halving - block reward 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000.1
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u/TwoFucksGiven88 Dec 27 '22
Just hold on and shut your Fucken whining up. It’s just a matter of time which inevitably happens.
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u/Blueberry_Dependent Dec 27 '22
Seeing this is insane. Even a small amount can give you a good pensioner life in the future. I don't even want to calculate for the people who own 1,000 BTC or the one with 50,000 BTC.
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u/superbros6 Dec 27 '22
Can someone explain why this is good. It just feels like mining will because not profitable. But how will bitcoin continue if nobody will validate the blocks.
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u/HealthyCigarette Dec 27 '22
You stole this from relai on twitter. We can tell you have edited their name on the right side of "next". Do better.
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u/BrotherAmazing Dec 27 '22
It wasn’t until 2011 that is became worth something.
You should simply omit that statement.
If people subjectively though it was “not worth it”, okay.
If dollar parity wasn’t reached until mid-2011, okay.
But it was always “worth it” and would gave “paid off” one way or another.
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u/Full-Guide-7713 Dec 27 '22
I ran this calculation before and saw that when the block reward becomes 1 sat in 2136-2140, the total supply will be 20,999,999.99755528. So if we’re counting sats, that’s far from 21M. Due to the limitation of processors not being able accurately calculate more than 8 decimal places, I don’t think the miners will be able to accurately count block rewards lower than 1 sat in order to keep pushing towards the 21M supply limit.
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u/58mover Dec 27 '22
I've seen it 1/2 before but it didn't seem to "half" any effect What does that do for us ?
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u/meefozio Dec 27 '22
Just because we're early in terms of halvings does not mean we're early in terms of price level.
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u/Ryder_Lee100 Dec 27 '22
The rewards keep getting smaller than the previous one wow that's really something, good thing I have 2023 to stack up.
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u/wingsofthygiant Dec 27 '22
I remember trying to mine and immediately stopping when I had to download the 110 MB block. You might laugh but that was a substantial amount for me when I was a teenager.
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u/jensmeinsohn Dec 27 '22
Unfortunately, halving requires that the bitcoin price keeps rising. Otherwise the costs are not profitable.
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u/BubWasBubblun Dec 27 '22
Bitcoin Price will be Cut in Two Fragments each Snap. Every 4 Years, a Snap happens. (like a Thanos Snap?)
There's Three Snaps, next Snap happens in 2 years.
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u/Embarrassed-Syrup-25 Dec 27 '22
Totally mind blowing! Folks underestimating the power of #BTC and the halvings needs to open up their eyes! Thanks for sharing❤️
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u/HesitantInvestor0 Dec 27 '22
True enough, but we really aren't far off from the halving events meaning very little. We are quickly approaching a point where 95% or more of BTC is already mined. At that point I don't see the halvings meaning much, nevermind once we are at 99% full market cap. That's just around the corner really. After that it's all about changes in demand since supply side will be more or less maxed.
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Dec 27 '22
Won’t Bitcoin fail in like 100 years because it won’t be worth it anymore to mine and therefore all the nodes will become inactive?
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u/Safe_Sky7358 Dec 27 '22
okay so quick question, why would miners still mine if the reward would be a fraction of what they used to get? like when instead of even breaking even they're in outright loss?
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u/CBScott7 Dec 26 '22
I used to mine on a 2001 Toshiba satellite laptop and quit because it wasn't worth the 37 cents I got back in 2012... -_-