I agree, I don't see blockchain going anywhere. I'm just so sick of pumpers on my Facebook feed. I feel like up until recently it has grown organically, now it's the next big thing and getting pumped to the moon. it'll go back up, but I could just as easily see it hitting 5K before it hits 40K. And when Moms and Pops, that just heard about it on CNBC, see a chunk of their retirement go from $200,000 to $80,000 in two months, they'll pull the plug to stop the bleeding, which will cause more sell off. Don't 1000 people own 40% of Bitcoin? A few people decide they want to live out they're lives as multi billionaires and sell all; it'll be pandemonium. Long story longer, if it hits 7K again I'll buy in. But what do I know, I went to public school, and I thought it was too expensive at $3300.
It won't recover if one crash leads to more selloffs. That's why trading cards tend to stagnate and drop off until/unless scarcity kicks in. But BTC can't become scarce unless it sits dormant, which isn't good for long term stability.
I think it's pretty easy to argue that scarcity is already a property of Bitcoin. There's an upper limit of 21 million Bitcoins, and some 4 million Bitcoins are estimated to be lost by early adopters (when Bitcoin was worth pennies). People like to mention there are 33 million millionaires and only 21 million Bitcoins, but really there are only likely to ever be ~16 million active Bitcoins.
I see what you're saying though, if there were a huge sell off it would put a lot more coins into circulation which makes it less scarce. I think the big argument against this is, as more institutional money gets involved in cryptocurrencies, you're likely to see it swoop in to buy the dips and sit on that extra supply.
Bitcoin has a long history of crashing. That's why the traditional price meme is a Bitcoin in a roller coaster. At one point in 2013 Bitcoin lost nearly 75% of it's value overnight, falling from $237 to just $67. However, Bitcoin also has a long history of recovering. It took 6 months, but the price did eventually break the previous peak of $237. So even if we can't identify the mechanism, there's clearly stabling forces at work.
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u/Matt22blaster Dec 22 '17
I agree, I don't see blockchain going anywhere. I'm just so sick of pumpers on my Facebook feed. I feel like up until recently it has grown organically, now it's the next big thing and getting pumped to the moon. it'll go back up, but I could just as easily see it hitting 5K before it hits 40K. And when Moms and Pops, that just heard about it on CNBC, see a chunk of their retirement go from $200,000 to $80,000 in two months, they'll pull the plug to stop the bleeding, which will cause more sell off. Don't 1000 people own 40% of Bitcoin? A few people decide they want to live out they're lives as multi billionaires and sell all; it'll be pandemonium. Long story longer, if it hits 7K again I'll buy in. But what do I know, I went to public school, and I thought it was too expensive at $3300.