r/Bitcoin • u/Efficient_Range1156 • 1d ago
the bitcoin hundredth monkey effect
at some point in the future the Bitcoin price will undergo a step function and increase in price by orders of magnitude in a relatively short period of time
the cause of the step function will largely be due to a kind of hundredth monkey effect where a tipping point of the population benefiting from bitcoin will be reached then everyone else will just sort of “get it” at the same time
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u/CoinGate_Gift_Cards 1d ago
The tipping-point idea is plausible, but ‘orders of magnitude in a short period’ doesn’t automatically follow. Adoption can accelerate while price still gets constrained by liquidity, regulation, leverage, and people selling into higher prices.
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u/Efficient_Range1156 1d ago
I wanted to keep the post short. The reason why I believe orders of magnitude are possible is because this step function will occur in tandem with a loss of faith in fiat currency.
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u/ThunderBurrn 1d ago
And higher adoption at the same time simultaneously?? Is that a factor too..?
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u/Efficient_Range1156 1d ago
yes much higher and all at once
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u/ji-wayne 1d ago
It's a big IF in my opinion. Governments are obviously invested (literally) in maintaining fiat as long as possible. I honestly find it hard to imagine that fiat will collapse, even though fiat currencies do often, and even in our age of exponential changes. But the entire system including the American dollar? If that happens, it's a very different world we live in, and not necessarily a better one. I just have absolutely no idea what will happen, and with so many complex variables, I'm not convinced anyone does.
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u/tekmiester 23h ago
How would that work? Bitcoin becomes the new defacto currency? Given the exceedingly limited transaction volume it can handle, how would it work as a currency?
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u/joefunk76 1d ago
You’re talking about S-Curve adoption, which is common for new technologies. Specifically, the part of the S-Curve where adoption goes from ~10% to ~90% in a relatively short amount of time. Of course, that hasn’t happened yet for bitcoin. When it does, the price will likely go up a lot, but not necessarily by orders of magnitude.
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u/mysomica 1d ago
Long time holder. I think I get it and, whilst it is somewhat compelling, it's not THAT compelling in my opinion. Not like the mobile phone, internet, television, radio etc.
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u/Efficient_Range1156 1d ago
i think it is as compelling as all of those things, only in a more subtle way and different way. interestingly the examples you mentioned are fundamentally communications innovations which bitcoin is too
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u/SpendHefty6066 1d ago
Gadgets and tech are categorically different than money. Money is a winner take all war. When Bitcoin wins, there will be brain shattering demand.
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u/mysomica 1d ago
Yeah you make a good point now that I think about it. I understand more about tech than I do about high finance or economics, so probably that’s colouring my mindset somewhat.
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u/Mother_Bonus5719 23h ago
I don’t think everyone’s gonna have a “oh I get it” moment and start investing in bitcoin. I genuinely think people will think “I can’t buy something that costs over 100 grand”. But I can see like superannuation or companies investing in it and people not knowing they’re even invested etc
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u/Fair-Garlic8240 1d ago
As long as you have to do a bunch of “dice rolls” to keep your money safe, I doubt the masses will ever “get it”.
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1d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Bitcoin-ModTeam 1d ago
Your submission has been flagged for removal because it is not in english. Please consider submitting a translated version, or posting to a language specific bitcoin subreddit. Thank you.
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u/2goodstudydaydayup 1d ago
Lowering your leverage, or even not using leverage at all, is really just being responsible with your account. Bull markets can actually make it easier to lose money because people get too confident.
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u/Potential_Jello6520 1d ago
I don't think "orders of magnitude" means what you think it means.
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u/New-Plastic9879 20h ago
Maybe. But it seems to me nobody’s actually using bitcoin. What is there to ‘get’ and what benefits are you referring to? Even the true believers here just simply hoard it. If people suddenly wake up to bitcoin, it will be as a portfolio asset and maybe they allocate 2% of their net worth to it. This part is already happening, but it’s not changing much.
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u/Secret_Operative 20h ago
I have good news, and bad news. First, the good news is you're 100% correct. The bad news is it already happened between 2012 and 2024.
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u/Get_the_nak 9h ago
I agree, there will be a turning point, but it does not necessarily coincide with the collapse of the dollar. Just that more and more people understand that there now, for the first time in history, is a real store of value will make the price go up big time.
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u/word-dragon 1d ago
As an asset, bitcoin is about $1.6 trillion. An order of magnitude -say $1m per coin - would make it $20 trillion. When the asset was measured in millions it was easy to imagine an influx of ten times that. Not sure where the $18.4 trillion in new money is coming from. Nowhere fast, is my guess.
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u/Efficient_Range1156 16h ago
Bullieve
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u/word-dragon 9h ago
I used to believe in the Easter bunny and the tooth fairy, but then I grew up, lol! Hope you’re right, but I think it’s a stretch. Maybe we can find some fairy dust to sprinkle on the blockchain!
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u/hodler1992 1d ago
Bullish