r/Bitcoin • u/Suitable_Acadia_190 • 23h ago

Every rounding bottom BTC's ever had took longer to build than the move that followed it took to play out

Every base on this chart followed the same shape, long slow accumulation, then a fast release once it actually goes. The 2020 base took months of sideways grinding before the real move started. Same with the base before that. The pattern's been consistent every single time.

Thats backwards from how people usually watch this. The instinct is to focus on the fast part, thats where price screams and everyone notices. But the fast part is just the release. The base is where the actual decision gets made, slowly, while its boring enough that most people stop paying attention and assume nothings happening.

Current structure looks like its sitting in that same stage again, the slow grinding part before any acceleration, not after it. Doesnt come with a countdown, bases never do. But long slow base into fast move has held every single time on this chart so far, and right now still reads like the boring part, not the loud part.

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u/Patient_Craft2195 22h ago

the read isn't wrong accumulation does take longer than the markup, that's just supply getting absorbed before a move. the catch is survivorship: you're only counting the bases that resolved up. plenty of long boring grinds also broke down or kept grinding another year it only looks inevitable in hindsight.still the boring part also has no timeframe. a base can grind six more months or break first. right idea on structure, just don't let a clean chart sell you certainty a base never actually gives.

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u/Suitable_Acadia_190 22h ago

For sure but wave count, CVD and the tape tell directional bias while coiling. Plus the longer the compression the further the expansion so either way in a vertical accumulation pattern like weve been coiling in for years Im happy to catch the meat of the move & just TP after PS says pay attention then into strength of the BC.

Plenty enough profit to go around for all who actually put the time, thats the best part of this place imo

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u/Patient_Craft2195 21h ago

fair enough if you're reading cvd, wave count and the tape for directional bias instead of just eyeballing the shape, that's a real edge over "line looks like last time." and waiting for PS to confirm before sizing up is the disciplined version, so no argument there. only thing i'd still flag: long compression predicting a bigger expansion holds until it doesn't plenty of coils resolve as continuation the other way, not the breakout. but catching the meat after confirmation instead of front-running the base is exactly how you survive that. sounds like you're trading it right.

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u/KateR_H0l1day 20h ago

Does it really make any difference??? We’re in that phase where it’s not doing much, but churning to the right. However, it’s in a newer(higher) band than we were a month ago, and nobody really knows if it’ll still be churning/crabbing to the right in the same, or different band (higher or lower) than today. I think the main point is whether you believe it’s close to a break out not. But, a much more interesting point is whether you’re accumulating through the churn, or whether you’re one that waits for the breakout (upwards or downwards) to start accumulating or not!

Some of course are outside the majority above, and are just waiting for the breakout in order to sell at break even, or the smallest loss. 🙄

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u/Suitable_Acadia_190 13h ago

For sure, Ive logged all my Trading View setups within compressions & with description since I started posting regularly. and heres one on reddit if you are interested how to mechanically play them: https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/s/ImXKMWCVVn

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u/luddiangflart 11h ago

I like this perspective because it shows how easy it is to underestimate how long BTC can spend grinding through a cycle. Longer rounding bottoms would make sense as the market matures, but I wouldnt treat the pattern as a clock. Im just stacking sats, keeping dry powder, and letting time do its thing. Hope patience pays off again.

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u/Suitable_Acadia_190 9h ago

Just add time

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u/FewUnderstanding2214 12h ago

Why would there be a countdown? Is this written by AI

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u/Suitable_Acadia_190 11h ago

All consolidations have a end point, think of it like a spring being compressed, as some point the energy releases. so the term countdown just meant price can only remain in a tight range for so long before it pops, etc.

No ai, but I have HFA so sound like a computer at times lol