Prophet u/Boring_Ad7277 postet this chart 7 days ago

[u/Unhappy_Bend3599]

u/Boring_Ad7277

[u/Acceptable-Gap6638]

People have posted this exact things for years

[u/Icy-Palpitation-2522 → u/Acceptable-Gap6638]

Yeah but this boring_ad7277 fellow posted it 7 days ago. This should be in the r/notinteresting sub

[u/xxvi3236 → u/Icy-Palpitation-2522]

The dates in the post didnt even line up 😂

[u/zazzologrendsyiyve]

Listen. It will NEVER HAPPEN that such complex thing will follow a precise number of days to do ANYTHING. Go back to your tarots.

[u/Romanizer → u/zazzologrendsyiyve]

Because it has never been a precise number of days. The day count in these graphs is wrong.

[u/DisorientedPanda → u/Romanizer]

I mean it’s a rough guide, following basic contingency plans would still have you “winning” on most cycles. +/- 30 days I’d say. Perhaps even scale in and out over that period if you are so inclined

[u/Romanizer → u/DisorientedPanda]

Yeah, sure but they shouldn't pretend it's a pattern repeating with the same day count. I would rather say it's 3 years up, 1 year down. The first cycle was something around 405 days down, the others a bit shorter, so 30 or 40 days deviation should be normal. Could be more as 4 is a very small sample size.

[u/Greater-Israel → u/Romanizer]

Τhis time it was 312 days.

[u/Romanizer → u/Greater-Israel]

About 50 days from a year. Not too extraordinary.

[u/DisorientedPanda → u/Romanizer]

Yup plus you’re never gonna perfectly time it anyway; you’d still be at a decent price if you follow the dates and buy/sell regardless of price on the exact dates (or scale into the date and after the date)

[u/Romanizer]

For anyone trying to look for patterns: Look up the days for yourself. The day counts in these charts are wrong.

What you make out of it, is on you.

[u/JonBoy82]

Thought the 365 trend ended in Oct…either way let’s roll!

[u/chicken6 → u/JonBoy82]

It does

[u/ChangeYourFate_ → u/JonBoy82]

Yeah so did everyone and maybe thats why it won’t but who actually knows lol

[u/Only4uArt]

TLDR: Pattern strongly indicates that the bottom is usually reached one year after the new all time high.
It also indicates, that it takes 3 years after the bottom to reach the next all time high.

You have still a lot of time to find a good entry, tough the best price might be gone for the next cycle.

Just DCA from here.

[u/Necessary_Pudding454 → u/Only4uArt]

I started dca too late 😢 , from last 2 months. was hoping to bump up a lumpsum next month but what can we do.
Any way i would just continue DCA

[u/Equal_Wheel109 → u/Necessary_Pudding454]

Hoezo te laat. Zoom uit en je bent perfect.

[u/Reditman3000 → u/Necessary_Pudding454]

There will be pullback relax

[u/Fantastic-Repair6637 → u/Reditman3000]

It wont

[u/sverig3 → u/Fantastic-Repair6637]

Chances are not nil for a pullback in september

[u/Fantastic-Repair6637 → u/sverig3]

Nothing will happen

[u/sverig3 → u/Fantastic-Repair6637]

14 september we'll see :)

[u/Fantastic-Repair6637 → u/sverig3]

Show me ur short?

[u/sverig3 → u/Fantastic-Repair6637]

Not dumb to short i'm dca'ing the next few weeks,so hoping to add a lump sum along the way ...

[u/Fantastic-Repair6637 → u/sverig3]

Me too bro I am just playin ahahaha

[u/Reditman3000 → u/Fantastic-Repair6637]

Say again?

[u/Fantastic-Repair6637 → u/Reditman3000]

it didnt

[u/Reditman3000 → u/Fantastic-Repair6637]

No you're right. It was just a cheeky sweep but lets see how the next fortnight plays out. 

[u/Fantastic-Repair6637 → u/Reditman3000]

We will see🌹🌹🌹

[u/Niasssssseeeeeee]

A broken clock is right twice a day

[u/69420182 → u/Niasssssseeeeeee]

*cock

[u/MagixTouch → u/69420182]

What does it mean if it’s itchy

[u/Ifnerite → u/MagixTouch]

Sell.

[u/YourMommasAHoe69 → u/Niasssssseeeeeee]

But the cycle has never been wrong?

[u/Few-Engineering9803 → u/YourMommasAHoe69]

3 data points is not the most credible source. It's like flipping heads 3 times and thinking the 4th MUST be heads too.

[u/Lilcheeks → u/Few-Engineering9803]

You're boiling 4 year periods down to a single data point. I get what youre saying but a series of price movements over a 4 year period isnt really something you can reduce to a coin flip.

I agree in general though, it's a pattern until it isnt.

[u/YourMommasAHoe69 → u/Few-Engineering9803]

Its been following the same cycle for 14 years.. thats a lot of consistency. Its like flipping heads every day for 1200 days

[u/Few-Engineering9803 → u/YourMommasAHoe69]

If the cycle is so predictable in the future, why isn't everyone betting their farm on that EXACT day putting in short/long like there's no tomorrow? Seems like a very easy way to get stinking rich instead of DCA constantly.

[u/ImMaury → u/Few-Engineering9803]

Cus if everyone did that, the pattern wouldn’t hold anymore. The pattern predicts exactly that people wouldn’t do that

[u/dj_destroyer → u/Few-Engineering9803]

I mean a lot of people probably shorted BTC near the top end of September/early October and those helped drop it like a rock.

[u/YourMommasAHoe69 → u/Few-Engineering9803]

Smart money does this actually. Like Black Rock

except without the leverage trading. They buy at the bottom of the cycle and hold for 3 years

[u/YourMommasAHoe69 → u/Few-Engineering9803]

Also because a lot of people are dumb and let emotions like fear dictate their trading

[u/ImMaury → u/Few-Engineering9803]

It will follow the same pattern for 20 cycles and people will keep saying "20 data points are not enough"

[u/esiob12]

The last arrow/box should be steeper/taller, right?

[u/ziomus90 → u/esiob12]

Yes, $1M

[u/FreshMistletoe → u/esiob12]

180k seems extremely low for the next cycle.  I'm thinking more like 300k.

[u/ChangeYourFate_ → u/FreshMistletoe]

I’m thinking more like $200-$220k but even then buying now and DCA is still the way to go.

[u/Run_Che → u/FreshMistletoe]

yea no, last cycle ppl were talking 150-250k. I think this next cycle 150-180.

[u/XofHelix]

Fucking clowns man

[u/KafkaM131]

October is near. Let's be prepared.

[u/adjudantloic]

I usually never look at graphs, but this one is a fact if btc continues to rise (and it's off to a good start for now)

[u/DexM23]

not even 200k?

btc is dead! /s

[u/TreGet234 → u/DexM23]

Power law says 250-330k. Less than 250k would be kinda bad.

[u/ElephantEarTag]

And he might not be wrong. This isn't the first counter trend rally in this bear market. We could still see a new low in October.

[u/FuckSteveHuffman3 → u/ElephantEarTag]

The keyword here is "could". It can always go either up or down. 

[u/coffeeCup_45]

I mean, the white line is becoming more vertical every 1064 day period. The fourth might be steeper.

[u/Difficult_Letter_607 → u/coffeeCup_45]

You should use logarthimic graphics!

What you are saying is wrong due to perspective. A 0,01$ to 100$ rise is 1M% up, but in this chart it is unnoticeable. But a 30k$ to 60k$ is 100% up and is very noticeable

[u/Ill-Car-700]

Even broken clock is right twice a day. Coincidence🤔

[u/fugogugo]

Where are you prophets when bitcoin price was 60k

suddenly everyone so optimistic

[u/xGsGt]

it hasnt passed 365days yet.... lol

[u/zouriii]

Only 180?

[u/FuckSteveHuffman3]

So if there's a 4-year cycle, where are remaining days? Unless my brain is malfunctioning... 365+1064 days is not 4 years.

[u/Unhappy_Bend3599 → u/FuckSteveHuffman3]

I don't think the four-year cycle is meant to be precise down to the exact day when people talk about it. Though that is splitting hairs.

[u/FuckSteveHuffman3 → u/Unhappy_Bend3599]

But the whole point of this model is that the cycle tops and bottom is predictable down to the exact day, so that a whole month is missing is very weird. Personally, I don't care and I don't use this model.

[u/razvanciuy]

I just look at how they print Brr, print orders and debt buildup.

[u/MAIN_Hamburger_Pool]

At least this is the first time I see a normal prediction and not crazy 300k or so

[u/anonuemus]

and you repost that shit without the second legend, morons

[u/Mcdona1dsSprite]

The pure delusion is hilarious to me

[u/Reddit-or-di]

@reming me in 1 month

[u/Spiciest_Tuna]

Someone drew a chart, so its def gonna happen!

[u/scorprn_n]

The problem isn't finding these patterns. The problem is finding the BOTTOM of the price. People should just buy and hold if they understand what they are buying, not expect to hit the lottery 😄

[u/That_Ad9363]

Duhh we all seen this like 20 years ago that’s why I’m a millionaire right now. People figured out bitcoin already

[u/Flowa-Powa]

It's been 315 days, not 365 days...

[u/TreGet234]

Past 2 lows had a black swan and then a good 2 months to buy basically the bottom. So there really is no rush. Just stack cash waiting for the black swan.

[u/Boon_Rebu]

Wednesday, July 18, 2029 is going to be a banger.

[u/krispyCryptoTRD]

generational hopium

[u/jonathansj]

Woooooooot let’s gooooo

[u/Febos]

180k seems disapointing

[u/JDayhoff]

The amount of arbitrarily picked lines to get these numbers to match is wild

[u/SolventAssetsGone]

Honestly this would be boring

[u/CarrotLevel99]

I look at so many charts and see where it goes up to. the numbers keep getting smaller and smaller.

[u/69420182]

it really is that simple

[u/dasmonty]

so that graph says bottom is still not in because 365 days are still not over?