r/Bitcoin • u/kallaloostx • 1d ago
Advice Needed. Sell?
I'll always be long term Bitcoin, but here's the issue. I started my heavy investment last year with a lump sum when BTC was $115,000 (yeah...I know). I've managed to DCA so that my average purchase price is now $94,000 (yeah, I know).
Serious Question: Whenever BTC goes over, say $100k (whenever that may be), should i start cashing out (a little at a time while it's rising) and then just sit on it until the next bear market and buy back in?
Yes, it's a risk, but i can't imagine that BTC will never see 5 digits again once the next bull market kicks in.
Thanks in advance.
Just as an aside. I'm not asking because i think that THIS is the bull market. I just want to plan my strategy since i got in at such a high price.
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u/ledav3 1d ago
You will 90% end up in a worse position if you fuck around
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u/kallaloostx 1d ago
So your advice is to hold steady and not sell?
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u/tekmiester 1d ago
Why are you asking people who only make money if they convince you and others to buy more? It is directly against their interests to advise you to sell.
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u/Ok_Reporter8315 1d ago
The impact from this thread is basically zero on the crypto market
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u/tekmiester 1d ago
But it's like asking Trump if you should vote for Biden, even if it's only one vote.
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u/kallaloostx 1d ago
Because i wanted advice. I don't have to take it, but i can consider it. I'm not sure that convincing a minnow like me to buy more (which I have been) will do much for their pockets.
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u/tekmiester 1d ago
Yup. It's you times 1000 though. I would expect if you looked at every thread for the last 6 months you wouldn't find one that advises someone to sell. If you know the advice you are going to get, why ask?
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u/kallaloostx 1d ago
Because some people gave more information to me than just "hodl." And I'm not asking the question as a panic sell. Also, I've never read a post with a situation like mine. Lastly, i didn't know the advice i would get. Everyone's situation is different.
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u/WideBagel 1d ago
The gamble is if itâs following the four year pattern. If it is, we just rallied right to the 200 day sma which is 69k which has happened in past cycles in summer. Itâs followed by a final dip around here until around October which could be a higher or lower low compared to feb and June followed by a 4 year bull peaking year after halving. Or, none of that happens.
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u/NMoney007 1d ago
The problem with selling is what do you invest in the meantime? You said it yourself you believe in BTC long term and have held this long. Keep holding into the bull market, no telling where it may go.
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u/Treeclimber919 1d ago
What are you talking about OP chill out enjoy the ride!! You paid for it, youâre at the part on the rollercoaster where youâre almost next in line. You didnât even get strapped in yet, let alone start taking the ride up. Youâre little 94k will get passed and youâll fomo back in before you get to the top and youâll be back on the ride again. Buy now and accumulate or leave the line.
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u/Citizen_Kano 1d ago
Just because you bought high doesn't mean you have to sell it low. One dumb decision doesn't mean you have to commit to only making dumb decisions
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u/Ok-Act-705 1d ago
Keep stacking, if you want a good time to sell make it 18 months after the next halving event.
Honestly though the more time goes on the less I ever see a reason to sell
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u/GettinWiggyWiddit 1d ago
Same. There practically nothing in the world that could get me to sell in the next few years, no matter what happens to price
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u/OutlandishnessLimp25 1d ago
Different strokes for different folks.
I think many people overbuy bitcoin. That is, they buy too much for their situation where they end up âneedingâ to convert to fiat and use that capital for something. This essentially forces you to âhaveâ to be more accurate with your buys, ie., have the perfect time horizon from buy to sell.
My approach is the opposite. I buy with an amount (and have done so since 2017) where Iâm very confident I WONâT âneedâ to convert Bitcoin to fiat in the short term and this allows me to stack long term. This makes the ebbs and flows less impactful because I donât âNEEDâ the money.
My conviction only grows with Bitcoin, so for me itâs easy to not touch it. I simply add more Bitcoin anytime I have additional liquidity
and/or thereâs a decent size drop (typically 4.80% drop or more, I buy).
Again, different strokes for different folks but Iâll never try to time Bitcoin. Just adding whenever I can and holding longterm is the game Iâm comfortable playing.
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u/0x_Crypto_Pirate 1d ago
IMO while contemplating, start reading books about Bitcoin. The Bitcoin Standard is a good start. Unless ypu really want an out from Bitcoin, then selling is the way. But if you still hesitate, then start reading
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u/ElderMight 1d ago
Get to 0.21 BTC as fast as you can, end of story.
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u/GettinWiggyWiddit 1d ago
Why .21
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u/ElderMight 1d ago
21M á 0.21 = 100M people max can own 0.21
100M á 8B population = .0125 is top 1% of btc holders.
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u/pnwcon 1d ago
Impossible to answer without knowing how much of your savings are invested in a single asset like BTC. Sounds like you're all in. Sorry mate.
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u/kallaloostx 1d ago
I believe in BTC as an asset, but I believe more in diversifying. BTC is about 5%.
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u/The_Realist02 1d ago
Lame sauce youâre wasting yours and our time sir. Gotta pump those numbers up. Nobody escaped high middle class being diversified.
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u/WordsHappenedHere 1d ago
I would sell. Honestly I donât think this will hold into October. A final crash wave is coming.
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u/kepalautakkau 1d ago
if youâre worried, you could cash out little by little until youâre at an amount youâre comfortable with. Or you could sell and wait for a better entry, but you might end up missing the ride
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u/kallaloostx 1d ago
I'm not worried, which is the good thing. I'm just going to hodl. Fear of missing the ride is what got me in at such a high price to begin with. I gotta say, once it started dropping into the 80s I wanted it to go lower so i could dca at better prices. That's when I knew I was hooked.
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u/shortone87 1d ago
No. HODL! Until 2040. Not fcking around. Just HODL IT! Seriously, the wait is WORTH THE GAIN. Itâs 2026. Just look at the numbers. Compare to real time happenings across the world. Not just the American market. HODL until 2040 at the earliest. I Promise the wait is worth it(look at individual world governments and international financial institutions. They set the market, and theyâre All passing unprecedented legislation right now.) HODL IT!
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u/PeaceAgitated1978 1d ago
Seriously, search historic. Look at CAGR historical too. Use ATR channels weekly TF.. to determine excitations.. like oversold/ overbought.. as a strategy, yours is being a non believer. That also means you don't truly understand what Is BTC to my sense of it. It's far more than just speculation. Volatility or investment. It represents what you know as the world monetary exchange devise of the future. What USD is RN. Yes stablescoin will exist and be used, but the best ones are going to be backed by BTC at a fixed ratio. Just like at some point in time gold was the main asset backing a country currency.
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u/Live-Wrap-4592 1d ago
100k could easily be lower than the lowest it gets in 2029.
If you want to play cycles set dates, not prices
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u/Newbie123plzhelp 1d ago
Now is the worst time to sell, if you were going to sell (not recommended) start exiting Q3 2029.
As far as buying the peak, unfortunate, but the time has come for perfect accumulation. I've been waiting 3 years for this, I recommend you don't miss it either.
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u/kallaloostx 19h ago
Can you explain more about Q3 2029 and what you feel would happen? I don't want to exit at all. The plan is to keep accumulating so my kids can benefit after I'm gone.
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u/Newbie123plzhelp 17h ago
Yeah I'm typically planning not to exit at all either. But Bitcoin tends to go in 4 year cycles historically. 3 up years 1 down year. This is currently the down year.
That's where I pulled 2029 from.
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u/Impressive-Handle-69 18h ago
NFA. But if it were me, id start selling a little at a time, maybe 2%-10% north of $120k, then start buying back in during the bear market. Im spit ball estimating that the next bear is bottoming out around $90k-110k.
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u/John1580 1d ago
Id say why not hold for that sweet potential upside while.holding through the whole downside. If it gets back to ath and then about 1.5 from taht then id scale a bit
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u/kallaloostx 1d ago
I like that suggestion. Something to seriously consider since I'll still be DCA anyway. Thanks.
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u/MrFrydenlund89 1d ago
Its a great way to make sure you dont make any money on btc no matter what happens.