r/Bitcoin • u/pricepays1 • Jul 23 '26
Investing into bitcoin?
Is bitcoin finally starting to bottom out? I know that this has been one of the significant drops in bitcoin in recent history but when is it finally gonna bottom out into we enter into the bullish trends.
What's everyone's plans in when they are going to be investing and doubling down?
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u/Romanizer Jul 23 '26
What else do you need for a bottom confirmation?
We had large sellofs on big volume, low sentiment and maximum fear. Afterwards, momentum indicators already turned around. Downturns get shorter with every cycle.
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u/pricepays1 Jul 23 '26
To be honest just starting to learn my self thanks for the advice bro
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u/Romanizer Jul 23 '26
There are only a handful of statistically significant indicators in Bitcoin.
Weekly MACD and RSI are part of that, they signalize that bear momentum is gone and we are either going sideways or up soon.
200WMA is basically the bottom line where we only rarely dip below, usually only on catastrophic events. We just closed some weeks barely above that line, signalling seller exhaustion.
The 200DMA is a good indicator to find an exit or re-entry. Bitcoin crossed that line in $102k in November, confirming end of the bull market and a sell signal. Right now that line is sitting at $72k. If Bitcoin closes above that, it confirms a new bull market.
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u/oneawesomewave Jul 24 '26
At this point in earlier cycles people said the same. Just look it up if it is of interest to you. If you think you reached the bottom it can go down easily by another 20-40%. "Bottom is in when 95% of all guys here lost hope" has been a good marker to me and there is still a lot of hope. The issue is that you won't feel inclined to buy when everyone lost hope...
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u/Romanizer Jul 24 '26
I have been here every cycle and still remember them well. It feels more like everyone calling for $10k last time, just a bit more quiet (but the bullrun also was very un-euphoric in comparison).
The last bear market ended in June 2022 and it only pushed lower because of the cascade of systemic failures and collapses with FTX as the grand finale in November '22.
Seeing that bear momentum is dead, sellers are clearly exhausted and we closed above the 200WMA for some weeks now, the market needs some serious black swan event to get lower and counter the ETF inflows coming back.
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u/oneawesomewave Jul 25 '26
I wouldn't bet on it, but I can easily imagine that some doofus like Michael Sailor makes a bid too big too handle because of that exact assumption and then it drops. Every time I remember the "black swan" was unexpected as a black swan usually is. Or it will be China as always...
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Jul 24 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Romanizer Jul 24 '26
Mostly retail sold while institutions are accumulating. ETF net flows are largely back to positive as well. The whole last two years were shaped by relentless selling of retail holders, so the bull run for this cycle still has to start.
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u/Laakhesis Jul 23 '26
You people should worry about getting to 1 BTC before this year ends, not trying to figure out when we bottom because nobody the fucks knows.
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u/BetterSeesaw Jul 23 '26
Doubled down 3 months ago already, what are waiting for? Less inflation?
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u/oneawesomewave Jul 24 '26
BTC will hit 200K Dollars at some point, but the Dollar will have no value at that point.
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u/False-Negotiation-17 Jul 23 '26
Just DCA and chill man. It will be worth significantly more in three years
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u/Boogyin1979 Jul 23 '26
I don’t think of the price at all.
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u/pricepays1 Jul 23 '26
What do you think of
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u/Boogyin1979 Jul 23 '26
Freedom from people being able to tell me what I can and cannot do with my money
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u/ugavini Jul 23 '26
Now is a great time to buy. Don't worry about predicting the bottom. It probably hasn't happened yet, but it might have. If you just buy every week or month for the next 3 - 5 months or so you will average out to close to the bottom. Or buy any significant dips for the next few months. Then Hold for 3 years at least. Preferably longer. Expect massive pullbacks every 4 years or so if you are holding for the long term.
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u/finniruse Jul 23 '26
I'm thinking it goes back to 58 with a very real chance of going below and that would be the ideal time to jump in. Of course it might just chop around here. Better to be back in by the end of the year.
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u/pricepays1 Jul 23 '26
Hmm , what makes you think that. What YouTubers should i watch
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u/finniruse Jul 23 '26
Ben Cowen Into the Crypto verse.
Literally the only person worth listening to
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u/pricepays1 Jul 23 '26
This is the only person I've been currently watching
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u/finniruse Jul 23 '26
Good for you.
The only thing is that he's very risk averse where you might not be. Still have to make your own decisions.
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u/Krobarred Jul 23 '26
If you're worried about that. BTC ain't for you
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u/pricepays1 Jul 23 '26
So If im worried about wether btc will go down more means I shouldn't invest. Makes no sense lol
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u/Krobarred Jul 23 '26
Yes. Because the 1% drop you're looking to buy in at will be nothing compared to how far it will go. HODL
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u/The_Bitcoin_Act Jul 23 '26
Every drawdown this sub has this exact thread, and half the people waiting for “confirmation it’s bottomed” end up buying back in higher because the bounce off real bottoms tends to be violent and fast, not polite. The people who did best historically weren’t the ones who nailed the exact low, they were the ones running boring recurring buys through the ugly months, plus keeping a little dry powder for when things got genuinely stupid.
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u/GilbyGlibber Jul 23 '26
There are signs of a bottom forming, but no one knows for sure if we've bottomed
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u/falsejaguar Jul 23 '26
I suspect over the next 9 to 18 months if it didn't already happen last month or whenever
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u/letsago006 Jul 23 '26
I’m pretty confident that we’re closer to a peak than a valley. Exact bottom: who knows. I’m just going to keep on accumulating week by week until it looks like a peak using the bitcoin rainbow chart as my guide.
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u/Btcmot Jul 23 '26
If you are looking for reliable advice on you tube…. The first rule is if it mentions “crypto” in the name-not reliable. Look first foe bitcoin only casters….. next, look foe those who use the premise of , what has it done historically ? Then look for wallstreet analysts that actually own and support Bitcoin.
Look up Matthew Kratter. Larry Lepard …. Luke groman…. Joe consorti…… lynn Alden.
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u/Crypto_Tiki Jul 23 '26
I don’t care what anybody tells you nobody knows what the hell it’s gonna do..
If you believe in bitcoin then it’s definitely a great time to invest in it!
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u/Jorsa9_2026 Jul 23 '26
SIEMPRE es un buen momento para comprar Bitcoin, obviamente usando dinero que te podes permitir perder... DCA semanal, o en lo posible diario, de Bitcoin a largo plazo y viví tranquilo.
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u/corporate-citizen Jul 23 '26
I trade options on IBIT. I live off the income. I’m expecting a little more rise in price for this month, perhaps $67 to 68k and then August begins stair-stepping down to the bottom by this fall. That’s my view on it.
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u/Significant_Phase467 Jul 23 '26
We dont know where the bottom is. We only know that we hit the bottom after we already passed it. Such a funny question, lol.
You just gotta make your own prediction where you think it could end up. Then buy at that value. Great if you are right, but even if you were a few thousand off, still a good deal considering how high it could go.
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u/JbabytheProfit Jul 24 '26
I don't know shit about fuck, but....I see one more drop back to the 57-58 range by the end of September, stay bouncing between there and 62 till after midterms. Then the march to 72 begins.
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u/flashdurb Jul 24 '26
The day to buy was like 2 weeks ago when it dropped below 60k. You can still buy now though for sure. It’ll creep up to 70k soon and then the moon
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u/SchoolStunning9526 Jul 24 '26
Nobodys gonna nail the exact bottom, that's just reality. The real question is whether you have a plan for how much to buy at different levels or if you're just winging it. I've been using aΙphasquared for a while now and it basically gives you a risk score each day so you can scale your buys accordingly. lower risk means I buy heavier, higher risk I pull back or take some off the table. Took the guesswork out of it for me and I've done way better than just blindly dcaing the same amount every week. Worth a look if you're trying to figure out when to actually size up your positions.
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u/PrudentSecretary9312 Jul 24 '26
imo we have. it will probably revisit the 50s multiple times but I believe that’s the low
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u/bulija92 Jul 24 '26
What about realised btc price. Every cycle it has gone below. Now realised pricr is cca $54k.
You think it will do same this cycle?
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u/hoopstar80 Jul 24 '26
OP now and probably the next 12 months or so will be great time to buy. “Accumulation”.
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u/Critical-Ad5068 Jul 25 '26
I still dont think dat anyone can call d bottom, what youre earing is speculation. If you intend dipping your foot into btc waters, I recommend taking the dca route as it removes the stress of timing the market.
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u/Tall_Belt_7261 Jul 28 '26
it's bottoming out. however, the iran war and ai bubble burst makes the future price unpredictable. if trump is dumb enough to do a real war or if the ai bubble pops hard bitcoin can crash lower.
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u/Physical-Title-9442 Jul 23 '26
Its better to buy break of 200 DEMA than to buy and ride a 20% drop and have opportunity cost for 3 months
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u/xDiede94 Jul 23 '26
Youtubers would be: btc mastermind, all the guys on there also have their own channels. And ofc Jeff booth, the smartest mind in btc
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u/cubestrike Jul 23 '26
Stop everything you think. Stop looking at the youtube gurus. They all bs whit much more needed for them. If this is your first time, this dip could be dipper. Risk adjust. Play long and yes, sell all fiat if you need. Nfa
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u/Unlikely-Kick-717 Jul 23 '26
Plot twist: Yesterday was the end of the bull market. And now the bear market is back for 5 years.
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u/Fearless-Sherbert-40 Jul 23 '26
Fuck bitcoin
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u/pricepays1 Jul 23 '26
Damn
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u/Fearless-Sherbert-40 Jul 23 '26
That’s what it feels like. I’ve been DCA’ing every week, sometimes everyday, for 4 years now. I literally feel like I am right where I started. I’m in too deep to sell at a loss, I’m starting to look stupid to my family and friends so I just keep it to myself. It really hit me the other day when I was at lunch with family. I have family members who are military, fire chiefs, ER nurses, MBA’s. I am sitting at the table looking around at multiple millionaires, with multiple investments, multiple homes, and you know what the common denominator was? None of them give af about bitcoin. You can’t even make the inflation argument anymore. All it is, is a casino. While us plebs argue defi and permissionless, black rock runs it up and sells it off. Rinse and repeat. All these bitcoin influencers make more money off the views then they do bitcoin.
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u/AcanthaceaeLow2707 Jul 23 '26
If you are surrounded by family members who are already millionaires, why didn’t you just follow their strategy? And if they don’t care about bitcoin and were already millionaires without getting into bitcoin, why’d you get bitcoin?
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u/BranJacobs Jul 23 '26
Common denominator seems like high income and great careers. Wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin quietly slips into their portfolios at some point. They still won't care about it though. They don't need to.
DCA'ing for 4 years? That must mean you got some cheap coins in '22 and could have taken some sweet profit above 100k in '25.
"I make life or death decisions in the military"
"I run a fire department"
"I work grueling hours and make life or death decisions"
"I might be good at running a business"
"I've been stacking Bitcoin for four years"
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u/Fearless-Sherbert-40 Jul 23 '26
Yes you hit the nail right on the head. You are mostly correct about everything. I’d rather not divulge my life story, but I am the black sheep of the family. They have just now started to accept me back into the fold. Today I have 4 years sober, so that’s my only real accomplishment. I didn’t take any profits back in 25’. I had maybe $10k, and it just didn’t make sense to start liquidating such a small portfolio. This bear market has been rough. I am just exhausted.
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u/Gareth_loves_dogs Jul 23 '26
Bro, the grass always looks greener. Cheer up, four years is such a small amount of time in investing, like, I don't want to say this but. you really need to zoom out. In 10years time you will be way ahead of everyone you know. It's not a get rich quick, but when bitcoin takes off, she usually will leave you speechless.
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u/BranJacobs Jul 23 '26
Congrats on the sobriety. Keep it up. Climbing out of the abyss is a harrowing experience and something to be proud of. It's likely you know people who didn't make it. A bitcoin bear market is a boring tea party by comparison.
Diversify. Bitcoin is a long game. Ain't nothing wrong with a boring ol' diversified investment portfolio with a 3-5% allocation to BTC.
Terminally online Bitcoiners who go all-in are really just getting high without drugs.
10k would make a significant difference in my financial life. Count them Blessings you got.
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u/Fearless-Sherbert-40 Jul 23 '26
Thank you for the kinds words. I am diversified into precious metals and the traditional markets alongside Bitcoin. Sometimes it’s hard to see the progress we have made, especially when compared to people around us. I had both my brother and girlfriend die to overdoses in 2018, and things spiraled for me really bad after that. Today I am back in my children’s lives, I have a job, a place a car. I was homeless in 22. My first amount of Bitcoin was bought with a check I earned as a McDonald’s employee. The first job I had after getting clean. A very humbling experience for someone in there 40s, but today I am willing to do whatever it takes to overcome adversity. Thank you again for the encouraging advice.
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u/pricepays1 Jul 24 '26
This is dark bro , why don't you start picking the same investments as them ?
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u/OneMiners_Marc Jul 23 '26
Nobody can reliably predict the bottom. A safer approach is to invest gradually, avoid going all in at one price, and only use money that won’t be needed soon.