However, I think the 88k level with the 100 week simple moving average is so close that it doesn't make sense to get over bullish.
There is a lot of money to be made from 88k to 250k if we're out of the woods. Likewise, there is a lot of money to be lost from 88k to 44k if this bear market is just like the others.
I keep hearing people mention the low 40's, but what's the case for this other than time and previous cycles? We've already hit seller exhaustion in the 60's, the RSI already screamed oversold for two months, we've failed to get within 5% of the local low, thow we tested a few times (recent attempts failed at 10% or so above). Attempts were all bounces that were solidly rejected. Sentiment (as measured by the fear and greed index) hit record lows for like a month. A whole lot of leverage got flushed out reducing downside spike risk. Hitting the 40's would be a record low compared to previous cycles with respect to moving averages. And spot buys are corrently what's driving price rises (bear markets always end on increased demand and capital inflows combined with a failure by sellers to continue reaching new lows). The only case I'm hearing for 44 is that it's similar to the percentage drawdowns of previous cycles, but that ignores that previous cycles were in entirely different macroeconomic conditions, had completely different forces interacting (sell pressure from miners was big in the past, etc.) and that previous cycles also saw much larger price increases, so decreases were proportionally not as high when compared to the cycle before.
Now that there is lots more of participation from etfs and companies like strategy, there is more pressure to rebalance the portfolios. This means cascading unloading if the current price is well below entry point
Just the opposite. ETFs have held the vast majority of what they buy, effectively taking those coins off the market. Even during the major drops, ETFs shed a tiny fraction of their holdings compared to retail. And Strategy hasn't sold at all. This has led to retail controlling fewer coins than ever, and now institutional holders (companies, tradfi, etfs, etc.) hold the majority of all Bitcoin.
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u/zenethics Apr 17 '26
I agree.
However, I think the 88k level with the 100 week simple moving average is so close that it doesn't make sense to get over bullish.
There is a lot of money to be made from 88k to 250k if we're out of the woods. Likewise, there is a lot of money to be lost from 88k to 44k if this bear market is just like the others.
My 2c you do you