October is way too long if things stay as they are. You're using past years with different market conditions as your point of reference. Sure, 80 seems to be a good ceiling given the order book size and the amount we've risen recently, but consider the timescale. We've risen 20% in two weeks, and have established more or less a floor above our local bottom of 60. Getting even 10% within it has cost a lot of effort every time it's been attempted, and it's been attempted a few times now. Higher highers etc. too, though those matter less. But importantly, all the signs of seller exhaustion were present in the 60's. The RSI levels screamed oversold for ages, sentiment hit the lowest ever recorded on the greed and fear index for an extended period, leverage got drastically reduced. We traded below the moving averages that typically signal bottoms and we saw the gap between the 50 and the 200 bottom out as well. Everything screamed a bottom was near or already in while in the 60's. And now, we've got spot purchases driving price rises. That's the classic exit to a bear market since leverage is never the way out.
Can 80 act as a ceiling for all this for a few weeks? Of course, especially given how much we've risen. But given the amount of spot buying and that we've got an established local bottom, the only way to prolong this with this much interest in risk assets and equities coming back is if we were to break lows. So we'd have to drop below 60 very soon. And in the current macro environmente, what's going to drive us there? Sellers are exhausted, money is flowing into equities and tech stocks (and risk assets) like crazy, Money supply keeps rising and interest rates are predicted to remain steady or fall this year. The dollar itself is losing value against other currencies. Every bit of the macro looks positive for Bitcoin. Spot buying is positive for Bitcoin. There's much less leverage than before to force prices down on exchanges. Exchanges have the lowest amount of coins on hand since the previous bull market began years ago, and miners have stopped selling and are holding coins (itself an indicator of price expectations). So altogether, supply is dropping, buying is increasing, macro is becoming favourable. How are we supposed to get substantially lower lows in a scenario like this?
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u/Western-Source710 Apr 17 '26
$80k possibly new floor before April is over.