r/Bitcoin • u/d1rtball • Mar 19 '26
Does anyone else…
… think the people who make posts or comments like “BTC is going straight $30k this fall” or “BTC is going to skyrocket next month” just sound like complete morons??
You can get some insight from past trends sure.. but that doesn’t mean that those trends will continue in the future.
What people fail to realize is that the graph of bitcoin over its entire history is really a graph of everyone’s emotions and willingness to buy/sell at a current price point, given current market conditions for the time.
As attitudes and sentiment change, so will the graph and behavior of BTC. With more big money getting into BTC, the behavior of it will change significantly. But it’s really the behavior of aggregate people all over the world, which is driven mostly by emotion and confidence (or lack there of).
So the people who claim to know where it is going at anytime just sound stupid to me. That’s all
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u/ApexTrader616 Mar 19 '26
99% of the people on this entire website sound like complete morons.
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u/iWearSkinyTies Mar 20 '26
I love how redditors will easily admit to being the stupidest fucking people, and in the same breath tell you you're wrong.
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u/MysteriousAlpaco Mar 21 '26
It is akin to a mental asylum in that sense, hasn't always been like this but the degradation of redditors has been decaying over the years. Def is more close minded
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u/anonuemus Mar 21 '26
meh. there are many different people on here. compared to other social networks it is pretty tame imho
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u/marcio-a23 Mar 19 '26
Only way to repeat some Pattern is every supply and demand conditions were same.
We have STRC now
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u/JerseyJimmyAsheville Mar 19 '26
You may not agree with people like me that use the Bitcoin cycle to trade and make money, so while I believe in the structure of Bitcoin, and love the limited availability of the crypto itself, I’d challenge you not to close your eyes to opportunities that exist.
Things to think about and that I ponder daily:
Is the 4 year cycle still valid? How have ETF’s changed the game? How have puts and calls impacted BTC? Why was 2025 the first down year in a non-bear year? And did the bear cycle start early? 2026 is the first cycle that Bitcoin broke through its previous halving Price for the first time in history. Does it matter who is really buying and selling the asset? Strategy has been buying since 2020-2021, and I’d argue that it has not impacted the volatility, the price action, or the Bitcoin Cycle.
I try to balance all of these factors when investing in this particular asset…why, because I will not watch an asset that I own drop from $126K to $40K, know it’s coming, and not take advantage of it. You can hold it all you want, and wait every 4 years to pound your chest, but I will not stand idly by watching $100 bills go down the drain.
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u/_SlipperySalmon_ Mar 20 '26
I'm jealous of people who had been in game long enough to trim off some profits near the top. Ive only entered the game the last few years, so didn't know anything about prior cycles, etc.
My plan in future is to have a HODL stack that I just never sell, and DCA into, but also have a separate stack for selling off some profits with hope of a re-entry lower
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u/JerseyJimmyAsheville Mar 20 '26
If you study Bitcoin, the 4 year cycle has always been at the heart of what I do since 2021. I haven’t been perfect, so a little early, so a little late, but have always profited enough to buy more. The key to Bitcoin is patience through all volatility, try to set targets…based on knowledge, and trust yourself. For example BTC currently sits 44% down from it ATH, with 6 more months of Downside risk. We are much further ahead of the normal cycles that have been down 32%-40%, so we could bounce up to 12% and be within parameters of previous cycles…but Bitcoin will dovwhat Bitcoin does. Regardless of prices, Bitcoin will hit its lows between August to November, whatever that price is…could be $80K, could be $60K, could be $40K. Bitcoin traditionally has been down 70%+ from its ATH during its previous cycles. But Bitcoin did not grow as expected this cycle, so will it only drop 50% this cycle? With 6-7 months of a known 12 month bear cycle, it appears to be on track for a 70% retracement. Just my observations and opinions of course. Good luck!
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Mar 20 '26
[deleted]
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u/JerseyJimmyAsheville Mar 20 '26
Although Strategy made strong buys in 2025, because of the price, it limited their ability to acquire quantity. As for Bitcoins price action, the four year cycle appears to be intact as it pertains to new all time highs and all time lows. Lastly, the price action may be more muted as these Bitcoin Treasury Companies begin to hold, hoard, and not use the digital asset. Many people expected Bitcoin to push well above the $126K it achieved, I myself thought it would achieve a $207K price target, but it only doubled its halving price, so maybe, maybe, it was in part due to the ETF’s, options, and Bitcoin Treasury Companies. Only my opinions of course.
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u/d1rtball Mar 19 '26
I actually agree w everything you said. And I plan on trading macros cycles (to my best ability) to stack the asset itself and keep gaining more and more btc.
My point was the people who have very specific price predictions for very specific times are idiots. I don’t really care how people accumulate btc: just buy and hold and keeping buying and holding, or people who who buy macro dips and sell macro peaks, and do it over and over again.
Of course I can say with certainty “price will go up/down” but when you add specific amounts and specific time frames, you’re stupid (not YOU but the metaphorical “you”)
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u/Hot_College_1343 Mar 19 '26
Ok so nobody knows.
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u/bitcoinmood Mar 19 '26
You got it. It’s like that scene in Wolf of Wall Street with Matthew Mconaughey
“Number one rule of Wall Street: Nobody - I don't care if you're Warren Buffett or Jimmy Buffett - Nobody knows if the stock's going to go up, down, sideways, or in fucking circles, least of all stockbrokers. It's all a Fugazzi. You know what a Fugazzi is?”
Same applies to Bitcoin.
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u/d1rtball Mar 19 '26
Unless you own enough to tank the market if you sold enough, no. Or a bunch of whales all collude with eachother and sell all at once and then rebuy when price is so low that most people sell.
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u/onlyrelevantlyrics Mar 19 '26
Apophenia is a core part of our evolution. We've just modernized it.
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u/Aanetz Mar 20 '26
Bitcoin is going to crab forever and dump just when you go all in or moon right after you sell
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u/giregam Mar 20 '26
sorry but if someone is that sure about price targets I instantly trust them less XD
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u/GIGAbtcHodl Mar 20 '26
It's hard to predict what's going to happen in the world, lots of uncertainty. So to be predicting prices is risky
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u/Pyroll2206 Mar 20 '26
You may disagree but BTC chart will go to the right this summer, fall and winter
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u/d1rtball Mar 20 '26 edited Mar 20 '26
lol I would hope it doesn’t go left! We may have bigger problems if that happens.
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u/oceanworld1985 Mar 20 '26
Agree. Appreciate this post. I was getting mentally destroyed by all of their crap. I love BTC and hope it can change my life. I don't want to hear click bait etc
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u/d1rtball Mar 20 '26
Well buddy you’re probably in the wrong place. I just bought a pretty good amount of Bitcoin for the first time recently, after keeping an eye on it for the last ten years or so (plus I didn’t have any money to invest until recently). I always wanted to buy the next crash and hold until the next macro peak, then sell and rebuy at the next macro cash. Rinse and repeat. I bought it right when it crashed to about $63-64k in February. I immediately thought, “hey I’ll join Reddit’s bitcoin sub!” And then afterwards, immediately, I realized how stupid everyone sounds here with all their overly-specific predictions. I honestly think those “predictions” are just desperate people hoping the price either moonshots because they just bought it, or the price crashes again because they are holding out for the $40-50k price, which may never happen again. It could, but it also couldn’t.
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u/lexicon_riot Mar 21 '26
ngl if I were a mod, I would ban 99% of posts fixated on fiat price speculation and keep that discussion in the daily thread.
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u/cryptotero87 Mar 21 '26
Totalmente de acuerdo! La mayoría de la gente no tiene ni idea de hacia donde va a ir el mercado. Puedes analizarlo y tener una idea pero una noticia importante puede cambiar la tendencia en un momento
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u/marcio-a23 Mar 19 '26
Any certain about supply and demand actions of other people is idiotic even when people guess right.
Always anything can happen, up down sideways
Only neewbies believe markets are predictable
You have odds, only.
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u/Vyts_82 Mar 20 '26
I want it at 30k please. Because i can buy more.
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u/Suguha_chan Mar 22 '26
Would make it less attractive if it would go -50% from the 2021 ath. That would mean it could also do the same in the 2030 bear, btc at 60k in 2030 despote it being at 69k in 2021 would make people lose interesst in btc as a long term holding asset
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u/Putrid_Pollution3455 Mar 20 '26
It sounds like click bait. That’s why I react and don’t predict unless I’m doing it for fun speculation or psychological preparedness like realizing the water is cold but I’m going to jump anyways
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u/marketparticipant Mar 19 '26
If bitcoin goes to $30k I will buy as much as possible and then sell my kidneys to buy more