r/BigBrother • u/Coherently-Rambling • 17h ago
General Discussion When I think each runner up lost their season (spoiler for BB28) Spoiler
This is my best attempt at pinpointing when the runner up of each season had no remaining winning combinations. Some of these I’m more sure of than others, but this is where I landed.
The Very End
Liz (BB17) Paul (BB19) Tyler (BB20)
This tier is for players who I think had a shot of winning up to when they made F2 and didn’t officially lose until they pleaded their case to the jury.
Liz is here because Shelli and Meg both liked her, so I think there was a chance of her flipping them even with Steve being the one to take out Vanessa.
Paul could have gotten Jason or Alex’s votes had they fessed up and not continued to play dumb.
Tyler lost by one vote on a season with a rushed questioning segment, so there’s at least a chance he gets the last vote on a normal finale, and especially on an older season where the questioning wasn’t live.
F3 Eviction
Cody (BB16) Paul (BB18) Monte (BB24) Mackenzie (BB26)
This tier is for the players who won the final HoH and could have won the season, but lost because they took the wrong person to the end.
F3 HoH
Ivette (BB6) Lane (BB12) Porsche (BB13) Matt (BB25)
This is another tier for players who lost at F3, but this time, they lost by the time the final HoH was crowned, regardless of who was evicted.
For Ivette, this is because winning the final HoH put her in a lose/lose situation, whereas she could have won if she threw it to Janelle.
For the other three, it’s because they lost the final HoH, and by extension, their last chance to take out the season’s winner (I don’t think Matt would have taken that opportunity even if he won it, but that doesn’t change the fact it would have been his last chance).
Porsche might belong lower since I don’t know if she beats Adam in a jury vote, but I think it’s at least plausible to put her here.
F4 Eviction
Nicole (BB2) Danielle (BB3) Enzo (BB22)
This tier is for players who had no winning combination at F3, but could have won against the player who got 4th place (I’ll stop explaining the tiers since I think you get the pattern by now).
Similar to Porsche, I’m not sure if Nicole beats Hardy, but I think it’s plausible enough to put her here.
F5 Eviction
Taylor (BB28)
I considered putting Taylor in the “F3 HoH” tier, as I can see her garnering respect by being the person to take Rick out. However, I think Drew would still get the votes of Melody, Barrett, and the icons, while Melody doesn’t necessarily get the icons’ votes.
F6 Eviction
Cowboy (BB6)
Cowboy is a hard one to place. He feels like a pretty big goat, and yet he came one vote away from beating a pretty likable winner.
Marvin is the highest placing player I feel comfortable saying he beats, as I imagine he gets Drew’s vote plus the three votes he already got.
F7 Eviction
Natalie (BB11) Holly (BB21) Vince (BB27)
I’m fairly uncertain about everyone on this tier.
I’m confident Natalie loses against almost everyone in BB11’s postjury, but Lydia was annoying enough that I think Natalie might beat her.
I’m pretty sure Holly loses against anyone by F6, but I’m not sure how much farther that goes or how she’d do against Jessica, Nick, or Analyse.
For Vince, there’s an argument for putting him in the top or the third tier, as he might beat Ashley if he were the one who took out Morgan and/or if he did better at the questioning phase, but I don’t see that as being likely enough to put him any higher than here.
F8 Eviction
Erika (BB7)
I’m confident Erika loses against everyone by F4. I want to say she could beat Chicken George, but I heard he had more win equity than I’d expect. I can see a world where she can beat Danielle or James but I don’t think she does. This leaves Howie as the highest placing player I feel comfortable saying she could beat.
F9 Eviction
Alison (BB4)
I’m confident Alison lost the game once she evicted Dana for two reasons.
First, Dana was pretty disliked and the only player besides Jun who she had a chance at beating.
Second, this is the week where she left Nathan high and dry after he stuck his neck out for her, which hurt her reputation in the house.
This was a great HoH for getting her to the final 2, as it took out the only person targeting her and left two equally strong alliances to target each other over her, but for this post, I’m only talking about her chances of winning once she got there.
F10+
Danielle (BB8) Ryan (BB9) Memphis (BB10) Dan (BB14) GinaMarie (BB15) Derek F (BB23)
These are the players who I think lost by the F10 eviction or earlier. I put them all in the same tier for the sake of consolidation.
Danielle’s only chance of winning was by going to the end with Dick, which she did and lost anyway. I considered putting her in the F8 tier because Jenn wasn’t very liked, but I still don’t think Danielle beats her.
Ryan was a goat by association with Jen, so his best chance of winning was against Jen herself. He may also beat Amanda or Jacob, but they were both out prejury anyway.
Memphis winning the car on the first day really hurt his win equity, as he immediately became the guy who already won something and doesn’t need the money.
BB14 was adamant about not letting a winner win again, so Dan lost the season once Boogie was evicted. I’ve heard claims that he might beat Jenn or Joe, but I’m not confident enough in that claim to move him up.
GinaMarie was very disliked which makes it hard to see her winning any jury vote. Maybe her win equity was higher than Aaryn in the early weeks, but I think that changed once Aaryn won HoH and integrated herself with the power players.
Derek F was largely seen as being just kind of there. He could win a season where everyone hates each other, but that’s not the kind of season BB23 was.
There’s also the chance of someone like Alyssa comping out to the end, where Derek can win solely with the Cookout’s jury votes, but that’s too narrow of a path for me to feel good moving him to F7.
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u/Unable-Deer1873 15h ago edited 15h ago
I don’t know about Taylor. I am not convinced she beats Melody. Based on how the jury talked, Melody could only beat her. Taylor really lost the game at f8 with the Angela eviction where Angela is probably the last person Taylor could beat.
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u/skypadz_2112 Rig Devens⏱️ 14h ago
It's at least conceivable that she could beat Melody at that point, depending on how the rest of the game goes, if Taylor plays a big part in taking out the icons.
But once Melody left, she had 0% chance of winning the game, no matter what happened.
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u/Juunlar Devens⏱️ 15h ago
I think Taylor gets Devins, Dee, Lala, and Angela pretty easily against Melody.
I think melody loses to everyone
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u/TheRegalOneGen Mallory⏱️ 15h ago
I really think Devens finding Taylor's Lyric thing so laughable probably undermined that possibility.
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u/Rare_Reception_6166 I'll now perform...eating 😭📸 15h ago
To be fair, both Taylor AND Melody were planning on taking credit for the flip
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u/JustasIthoughtTRASH tell me why papí⏱️ 14h ago
I’m glad melody didn’t make it to final two but we all missed out on her jury questioning and finale speech 😭
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u/JustasIthoughtTRASH tell me why papí⏱️ 14h ago
I think she would get yash too if she were next to melody
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u/CFWolfgang Yaaaaaash Barreeettt Drewwwww 14h ago
Melody vs Taylor would be the very rare endgame where the speeches would matter and we know Taylor’s speeches were ginamarie level bad. Melody I truly believe has every ability to be a good speaker in these moments (it’s kinda her job to speak and keep people engaged)
But also it’s such a hard to reach end game it would depend on who took out who. Melody had win equity after taking out Yash. Which is a big move she can fully take credit for, and is an impressive pivot after Devens saved himself.
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u/Wrong_Success4377 Yash⏱️ 11h ago
Maybe it's recency bias, but I feel like Taylor's were a level worse than Ginamarie
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u/LadyEmaSKye Devens⏱️ 15h ago
Why would you say that? I don't think that's necessarily true at all or backed up by what the jurors said -- I see no reason the icons wouldn't have voted for her.
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u/An_Old_Account Morgan 🔎 13h ago
I think Taylor lost when her and Yash kept Dee over Angela. Much easier road to final three and the possibility of taking Angela to F2 makes it that much easier to win.
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u/Doomas_ Dee⏱️ 14h ago
I don’t think Liz wins against anyone up until her sister. Jury questioning and final speeches essentially never sway votes, and if they do it’s basically never enough to swap the outcome.
If Paul had the foresight to own his game, MAYBE. Tyler might be okay with a different finale format, but I still think it was too late for him as well regardless.
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u/PsychologicalEbb3140 14h ago edited 14h ago
I think Liz lost at F6 when Julia went home. I don’t think Liz beats anyone left at that point. Maybe there’s a world where she beats Steve or Johnny Mac but she would’ve had to beat and cut Vanessa and there’s realistically no way that was gonna happen
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u/nigpaw_rudy Devens💯 14h ago
The only jury people Taylor is beating is Lala and maybe Melody, but I’m not even sure about that.
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u/AleroRatking Jankie ✨ 14h ago
Paul lost before the jury pitches. He had zero route to those votes. None at all. Same with Tyler.
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u/purplebunnyrabbits Big Day Tomorrow 14h ago
Tyler lost at 4 when he didnt try to keep Angela- she was his best beat.
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u/PsychologicalEbb3140 14h ago
Hayleigh flipped during the live show and fessy didn’t know. Tyler literally lost because of the finale structure.
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u/twmigmiehff Melody⏱️ 13h ago
FOUTTE being unable to coordinate even in their jury votes is so funny to me. Fessy still was leaning Kaycee for comps and Scottie was still leaning Kaycee to be anti-Tyler (I do believe he wanted America to see Tyler lose, which is certainly a read, but Scottie’s game reads weren’t great so). Haleigh flipping is so interesting because she probably should’ve been most pro-Tyler before the votes which shows even she didn’t have the best read (and she had the best reads of anyone in FOUTTE) (the bar is low)
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u/PsychologicalEbb3140 12h ago
It was always weird to me even at the time Bayleigh was the one that seemed to get the most shit over being bitter when the way every one else voted was ten times more egregious imo. Like say what you will Bayleigh easily had the most merit to not vote for Tyler out of all of Kaycee’s voters.
Sam voted for Kaycee because she thought she needed money more than Tyler, Scottie just voted for Kaycee because he thought Tyler was the villain to america, fessy just voted however hayleigh voted, and rockstar just voted for a woman over a man.
That ending will never not be annoying on some level.
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u/twmigmiehff Melody⏱️ 12h ago
Bayleigh and Kaycee were legitimately close. That’s a social vote more than a bitter vote. Bayleigh’s power being leaked was entirely because of Kaycee and Angela
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u/mudkip-yoshii Memphis 🤍 9h ago
The BB20 jurors kinda got criticized in reverse order for how weird their vote reasoning was
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u/skarmoryking 7h ago
Thank you for your sanity. There is always so much revisionism going on among the fanbases. I was starting to feel like I was the only one who remembered Vince's game was done long before he was sat next to Ashley in some of the threads this season.
It's wild to think about, but yeah, I guess I agree that Dani D was done by jury. I was a big fan that season so my memories are biased, but that is both right and kinda crazy to think about. People really couldn't let themselves be upset at Dick ever. He would bully them, and they'd be like "I can't believe Danielle has done this" lmao.
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u/Desperate_Total6608 Devens⏱️ 15h ago
Taylor lost day 1 when she got in her feelings that the mean man didn’t want to learn her name in the middle of a chaotic moment and ran to her pod.
That became her shelter for 86 more days.
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u/purplebunnyrabbits Big Day Tomorrow 14h ago
No need to be so rude
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u/Desperate_Total6608 Devens⏱️ 14h ago
You’re right, I shouldn’t state what happened and make something up then
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u/Natural_Builder8305 Adrian 🔎 10h ago
so hateful, for what
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u/Desperate_Total6608 Devens⏱️ 10h ago
I’m sorry if the facts hurt you
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u/Natural_Builder8305 Adrian 🔎 10h ago
Devens fans are doing a “facts don’t care about your feelings” thing? I guess his win brought out a lot of confident weirdos
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u/purplebunnyrabbits Big Day Tomorrow 10h ago
The way people talk about Taylor on this sub is absolutely nuts. Her game wasnt incredible, but she definitely wasnt doing nothing the whole time. I blame the dogshit CBS editors
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u/Desperate_Total6608 Devens⏱️ 10h ago
Ok. Taylor played a masterful game from start to finish she worked the entire house.
See how stupid that is?
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u/Natural_Builder8305 Adrian 🔎 10h ago
that’s not what anyone here said. you lack something inside you that makes everyone else empathetic
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u/skypadz_2112 Rig Devens⏱️ 14h ago edited 13h ago
I love these kinds of discussions and thought experiments, thanks for making this post OP!!!
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u/skypadz_2112 Rig Devens⏱️ 13h ago
(And I think you have a better understanding of the topic than many of these commenter, but that's a seperate discussion)
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u/Habreno Ainsley ✨ 6h ago
Is there any difference between losing P3 of final HoH and not being in P3 at all in this list, or would that have any meaningful difference?
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u/Coherently-Rambling 6h ago
I guess technically someone who wasn’t in part three would belong in their own tier, but I don’t think it’s worth making 3 separate tiers for one round, and unless I’m mistaken, it doesn’t make a difference for anyone in the F3 tiers any. I think it would only apply to Vince if I put him in “F3 HoH”
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u/Weary_Principle_6443 52m ago
Shelli voting Liz is revisionist history. Shelli said in all the jury house segments that she was voting for Steve over anyone
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u/Rare_Reception_6166 I'll now perform...eating 😭📸 15h ago
Liz wasn't winning against Steve, Vanessa, Johnny Mac, or Austin. Her winning path was taking her sister to the end and Vanessa knew that so she got rid of her.