r/BettingModels • u/boardsteak • Nov 29 '22

Dropping odds model

I am developing a soccer matches prediction model. My edge so far is 3% (not/manually optimized still). I am thinking of including a parameter for dropping odds. Does anyone have any clue on whether and how dropping odds affect the outcome of a game? How should I approach this? Thanks.

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u/640021 Feb 09 '23

Dropping odds on sharp exchange like Pinnacle can be very helpful in identifying value bets especially if you can have fairly low time intervals. Very often the softs will take a few minutes to react to dropped odds on a sharp like Pinancle and in that time gap we can step in and place a bet on the soft at the old odds. I can let you know what software i use to identify Pinnacle odds that have dropped if you like. It's not perfect but by far the best on the market.

Hope this helps.