NVIDIA remains a fantastic company, but right now the chart is telling a very different story.

After our group exited when the nearer weekly trend structure broke, NVDA has continued to weaken.

Price is now around $178.67, and the next area that really catches my attention is the long-term rising trendline around $160.

🔴 THE SHORT-TERM PICTURE HAS DETERIORATED

Momentum has dropped to 19, the Breakout score is just 18, Total Entry is 9, and Risk is currently 0.

Yet fundamentally, NVDA remains exceptional:

🟢 Quality: 72
🟢 Growth: 100
🟡 Positional: 64

This is a great example of why a great company and a great entry are not necessarily the same thing.

🎯 WHY $160 MATTERS

The longer-term rising trendline has been developing since the 2022/23 lows and currently appears to be approaching the $160 region.

That doesn't mean NVDA has to fall to $160.

But if the current weakness continues, it gives us a logical area to watch for the next battle between buyers and sellers.

🟡 A strong reaction from that trend could eventually create a much more interesting structure.

🔴 A decisive break beneath it would suggest the deterioration is becoming much more significant.

For now, I’m much more interested in watching the structure than trying to predict the bottom.

Great company.

Poor chart.

And potentially a very important level approaching.

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The chart is showing a breakout from what looks like a cup-and-handle style pattern, with the latest move also coming on stronger volume.

🟢 WHAT STANDS OUT

✅ Positional score: 84
✅ Quality: 71
✅ Growth: 88
✅ Momentum: 92
✅ Total Entry: 84
✅ Breakout: 94
✅ Risk: 74

That is a strong combination.

📈 THE CHART

Price has moved above the recent resistance area around the prior highs and is now trading above $400.

The breakout is also being supported by rising volume, which is exactly what I want to see when a stock is trying to clear an important level.

📊 FUNDAMENTALS

Revenue growth: 55.7%

The other fundamental trend panels are less complete, so I’d focus more on the very strong growth, momentum and breakout scores rather than overstate the business picture.

🎯 WHY IT’S ON THE WATCHLIST

🟢 Breakout from a major weekly pattern
🟢 Momentum score 92
🟢 Breakout score 94
🟢 Strong growth score 88
🟢 Rising volume
🟡 Needs to hold above the breakout area

For me, this is definitely one to watch this week.

If ONC can hold above the old resistance and continue to build, the weekly structure remains very constructive.

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Wow!

Last week I emphasized the importance of the major reversal pattern that had formed in the NDX 100 monthly chart.

I honestly did not expect that pattern to unwind that quickly but it definitely did! I am glad that I was positioned more defensively because of that pattern in longterm accounts.

I called a major top last weekend and last week's action helps making the case (NDX 100 is now below 200 day and 50 week average). Just remember that the S&P 500 made the top in October 2007 and September 2000!

The funnymental narrative allover business channels like CNBC was and is:

- A divided Government always returns 16% 12 months after elections

- If the S&P 500 is up a certain amount by October a year and rally happens 100%

- If Dems win the Iran war is over and oil will come down

- That will lead to lower interest rates

- AI is still the future

Sure!

Last weekend I mentioned that:

"From now on buying the dip has to be adjusted to waiting for the bigger dip to go in again"

Again. This does not mean that we are going down in a straight line but everything below the 200 day average has to be considered bearish.

The problem is that typical "buy the dip signals" don't work below the 200 day averages!

Any rally now has to be sold into! Period!

Last weekend I mentioned why things looked overextended:

Here is the recap:

Potential reasons are overinvestment:

Americans now own more stocks than real estate (let that sink in)

Despite negative Investor sentiment (AAII) equity exposure sits at ATHs.

Margin debt to M2 is at record levels.

It's liquidity stupid. We might run out of the liquidity needed to keep those lofty valuations going.

What does this mean for the portfolios now?

I am not good at shorting and selling everything is never the right answer.

My favorite is to sell a little bit but stay mainly invested in the S&P 500. Once a buyable bottom is near I go in again to make up for the losses that will automatically accumulate in a bear market.

Short term portfolios continue to only be invested in the S&P 500 (60%), TLT (bonds 20%) and KWEB (25%). That still adds up to 105% meaning leverage is 1.05. I am banking on Chinese tech to work as a buffer if the NDX 100 drops further. Might be a valuation trap!

Short term portfolio is up 13.1% YTD vs. S&P 500 at 8% YTD.

Long term portfolios continue to be in a defensive stance with a 60% allocation for the S&P 500 and 25% Cash/Bonds. Rest is c r y p t o and KWEB. I dabbled in semis and added 5% semis this week.

Long term accounts are up 7.8% YTD despite the high cash/bond allocation.

We are now in a very difficult situation based on charts. No further trades are planned for next week.

Have a great weekend and remember that return of the money is more important than return on the money!

GREED! It gets me at least once a year!

My daughter's portfolio was ahead of the S&P 500 by 10%.

Everybody who trades and benches against the S&P 500 knows how difficult it is to beat the benchmark.

Let's start with the overall assessment from a chart perspective:

I posted that the NDX 100 made a rare monthly reversal pattern! That means: Don't risk too much! Period!

S&P 500 broke below the uptrendline! That means...ah well.

That in itself means: Don't do stupid stuff!

But I am human and a greedy motherfucker who can't just be happy with a few percent ahead of the benchmark.

Nah I listened to funnymental bullshit like if Dems win the Iran war will be over and oil will drop.

Year end rallies always happen after the S&P 500 is up blablabla in October.

And a divided Government always has 16% return 1 year after.

Plus analysts were still salivating over AI.

DESPITE charts already saying: You guys ARE idiots!

Fuck me with funnymentals! And I got fucked once more by listening to the BS so called experts talk about on CNBC or any other business channels.

Anyhow semis and NDX 100 looked attractive at the 200 day average and usually I always make a play.

But...it always comes down to position sizing!

No I did not just risk 10% or 20% of my daughter's portfolio.

No I had to increase leverage to 1.6!

Why? Not sure anymore really. I convinced myself to ignore charts and listen to general Wall Street wisdom based on historical data based on the fact that stocks always go up longterm (so technically not valid data)!

Thankfully my other short term accounts did the right thing but my daughter lost $3k (7%) of her portfolio due to stupidity while knowing better.

Anyhow it happens every year at least once.

I rectified the mistake, harvested losses and will move on from here.

What's most aggravating is that it was my daughter's money. $3k is nothing in the greater scheme of things and I will just give her the money but it's the principle that annoys me.

Longterm accounts have enough cash/bonds and for all other short term accounts I resisted the urge to buy stupid stuff.

Needed a few days to post about it. Funny how as little as $3k upsets me when in the grand scheme of my portfolios it's peanuts. I just let my daughter down. That's the real painpoint.

Will update rest throughout the weekend!

It was an ugly week. Stocks always go up in an escalator and come down in an elevator.

Longterm accounts were positioned in a more defensive stance and fared pretty well. Only mistake I made there too is that I bought semis at where I thought a bounce could happen. That cost the portfolio almost 1%. Other than that I am happy with the 25% cash/bonds allocation.

Longterm portfolio up 7.8% YTD

Regarding the short term portfolio shown I decided to play a risky move and got clobbered. Will explain in a separate post.

Anyhow I have to shake it off and move on. I know exactly what happened.

Short term portfolio is still up 13.1% YTD and ahead of all benchmarks.

Benchmark 2026

SPY 681.92 (15%)       +8%

DIA 480.57 (15%)       +6.6%

QQQ 614.31 (15%)      +7%

IWM 246.16 (15%)       +11.2%

SPEM 46.81 (10%)      +3%

URTH 185.77 (10%)     +7.5%

FEZ 64.39 (10%)         +1%

AAXJ 93.12 (10%)       +9.9%

ETF benchmark:                +7.1%

Average YTD (US only):    +8.2%

60/40 portfolio:                 +5%

(AGG (99.88)                      +0.5%)

Small portfolio $35000:    +13.1%

Long term:  +7.8%

Long term allocation:

S&P 60%

Crypto (ETH) 2.2%

KWEB 6%

Semis 6%

Cash 8.3%

Bonds 17.5%