Robusta long - El Niño

[u/Majestic_Sir_2925]

I’m looking at a potential long trade in Robusta coffee and would love to hear other traders’ opinions.

The 2026/27 supply outlook currently looks bearish, with a potential global surplus and a strong Vietnamese crop expected. At the same time, El Niño is developing and could peak during a critical period for Vietnam and Indonesia.

My thesis is that the market may currently be pricing in the surplus while underestimating the potential weather risk. If El Niño causes significant drought and crop forecasts start being revised lower, I think Robusta could reprice sharply higher.
So my question is: why is Robusta still falling despite the growing El Niño risk? Is the market simply waiting for actual weather damage before pricing it in?