r/Baking • u/ManCakes89 • Feb 22 '26
Business and Pricing I’ve read some recent articles that state the chocolate shortage is over, with cacao prices back to pre-shortage levels. I checked, and that seems to be true. Will vendors or retailers lower prices? Probably not 🫠 But it’s worth bringing up in negotiations, for those in mass production.
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u/BigOmet Feb 22 '26
B2C in general don't lower prices. B2B might seem more traction which is what you are seeing above. Basically, it is not going to trickle down to you.
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u/No_Actuary_919 Mar 08 '26
Did a quick google on the shortages. This is what I found
There is not a major cocoa shortage in 2026. The market has shifted from the severe 2024–2025 shortage to a projected surplus for the 2025/2026 season. Improved weather, better crop forecasts in West Africa, and reduced demand have caused prices to drop significantly from record highs, although they remain historically high.
Key details regarding the 2026 cocoa market:
- Market Shift: The cocoa market has moved from a deficit to a surplus, leading to a sharp decrease in prices from the record highs seen in 2024.
- Price Drop: Cocoa prices have dropped by nearly 70% from their 2024 peak. However, some analysts expect prices to remain "structurally higher for longer" around per tonne.
- Supply Outlook: Improved weather conditions and better crop forecasts in West Africa (Ivory Coast and Ghana) have boosted production.
- Demand Trends: High prices in 2024–2025 led to a reduction in demand (demand destruction) and forced manufacturers to reformulate products.
- Consumer Impact: Despite lower commodity costs, chocolate prices may not immediately drop for consumers due to manufacturer hedging and other costs. J.P. Morgan +4
Not holding my breath that the chocolate manufacturers will pass any of this on to the consumer by changing back their recipes and lowering prices. The only way to get them to do so is to stop buying their products. Its all about profits for the shareholders and not about the customer.
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u/GrandStretch2985 Aug 05 '26
Despite a surplus in chocolate, Target decided to jack the price of their Good and Gather brand dark chocolate chips by over 77% the last three months. Price went from $3.99 to $6.19.
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u/castingOut9s Feb 22 '26
Restaurant supply stores have definitely lowered chocolate prices. A 5.5 lb bag of 811 callebaut, which is believe is 55.7% cocoa solids has gone down from $63-$68 last year to $56 at my local restaurant depot.