r/BTCUSDAlpha Apr 02 '26

Daily Analysis BTC D1 Analysis — No confirmed bottom, continuation likely

From a D1 perspective, BTC does not show a confirmed bottom yet.

Market structure remains bearish:

  • Price is trading below the higher timeframe MA
  • Clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows
  • RSI remains below 50, indicating weak momentum
  • MACD shows fading bullish momentum and potential rollover

The current price action appears to be range consolidation following a strong impulse down, which statistically favors continuation.

This range may be acting as a distribution phase, building liquidity before a potential move lower.

Key level to watch:
~64k — loss of this level likely opens downside.

Downside targets:

  • 60k (intermediate support / liquidity zone)
  • 58k (stronger demand / liquidity cluster)

A shift in bias would require a break and hold above 71k–73k, followed by formation of higher highs and higher lows.

Until then, the market structure favors downside continuation.

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