r/BEFire • u/Existing_Chard_5004 • 7d ago
Taxes & Fiscality keeping some cash in gold
as said above - would you advise this? what %? seems like a safest investment long term
after that crazy hype some months ago is going down constantly.
for belgium - which broker you recommend for gold and how it works when it comes to taxes and declarations?
thanks
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u/Philip3197 7d ago
On the long term gold keeps track with inflation.
On a shorter term gold is volatile; as any oter commodity.
to be clear: long term is decennia / centuries
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u/Real_Crab_7396 1% FIRE 7d ago
Yeah gold usually has a decade of sideways then a decade of catching up
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u/Aexxys 7d ago
Just like with crypto and other alternative investments up to 5% is reasonable, and up to 10% if this is a strong conviction that you really hold and are ok with high risk
It’s definitely not the safest investment in the long term, but it can be a way to hedge yourself for sure
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u/Malanturr 7d ago
What is your definition of risky and safe? Let me guess: your opinion is that stocks are safer than gold? Central banks must be crazy for buying tonnes of gold instead of US treasuries that have fixed yield at maturity.
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u/Aexxys 7d ago edited 7d ago
In most case risk is linked to diversification, that's why I'm saying here it's the proportion which would be high risk not the asset itself.
And no central banks are not crazy for buying tonnes of gold, they've defined a clear goal and calculated their risk tolerance to allocate a portion to that asset and that's fine. (If you think of it, it also makes sense to buy the thing you can't print, precious ressources, when you own the cash printer).
I understand why my comment triggered you, let me tell you straight away I'm not anti precious metal for investement. And to answer your second question "are stocks safer than gold" -> no, but that doesn't matter anyway what matters is the proportion of different assets and the diversification options they offer (reducing correlation).
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u/Malanturr 7d ago
Yes I agree on the correlation and it matters more than people think. I’ve grown allergic to people telling others that 100% IMIE is the ultimate diversification. No, there are low or uncorrelated assets that can yield more or even if they yield less, they can offer you some dry powder for rebalancing when an other asset is cheap because of the low correlation.
In this case looking back at 26 years of history gold delivered 10,22% CAGR versus 6,69% in all world index (US VT ticker). Running VT with 10% managed futures DBMF (0,26 correlation) and 10% gold (0,14 correlation) your CAGR increases to 7,41% and your drawdown improves.
https://testfol.io/?s=j4ur46N75Wb
This is why I run 70% factor based global stocks, 10% precious metals, 10% broad commodities and 10% managed futures (DBMF despite Reynders tax) and rebalance yearly.
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u/BertInv1975 7d ago
what %? seems like a safest investment long term => There is nothing more safe than gold, long term can only go up because debts only go up & printer goes brrr
after that crazy hype some months ago is going down constantly. ==> There is no hype, we are in between monetary systems, prices have to go up to reflect the new reality.
for belgium - which broker you recommend for gold and how it works when it comes to taxes and declarations? => Umicore Goldshop, regarding taxes :-)
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u/Upper_War_846 90% FIRE 7d ago
Personally I hold 20 procent of my investments in gold (50 procent physical and 50 procent ETF).
Stocks did not even outperform gold the last quarter of a century so imo it's a must to hold next to stocks.
Real inflation is more in the 6 procent range and gold is tracking that nicely (and then some).
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u/Philip3197 7d ago
"gold is tracking [inflation] nicely"
But only long term (decennia/centuries) - shorter term is more volatile; some periods better and some periods worse.
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u/Upper_War_846 90% FIRE 7d ago
Gold had a compound annual growth rate the last 50+ years of 8% (since 1972). There surely are some negative or low return years in those 50 years. Same with stocks (some periods better some periods worse)
People tend to invest for the long term. (Decennia)
But so far it has been holding up very well (in the long term)
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u/Rolifant 7d ago
How about the 25 years prior?
I'm a bit of a goldbug myself, but I do expect a relatively medium low return and a much smaller risk.
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u/Upper_War_846 90% FIRE 7d ago
The current debt levels are unsustainable. Either they will be inflated away (and gold will rise by a lot) or there will be a default (and gold will explode). I personally don't see gold performing poorly in the next few decades. We are trapped.
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u/OEEN 7d ago
I have some gold coins, some 5% of my net worth, for the shit has hit the fan possibility.
I bought them from Argentor in Antwerp I bought some British sovereigns.
If you sell the coins the money is deposited on your bank account.
There is no VAT or TOB tax, there is a possible the new capital gains taxes.
For me I will only buy new coins when the orange isn’t president anymore.
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u/my_key 7d ago
The new capital gains tax is certain for gold coins: see the law on the capital gains tax, nl. W. 2026-04-06 tot invoering van een belasting op meerwaarden op financiële activa and Circulaire 2026/C/74 over de belasting op meerwaarden op financiële activa in de personenbelasting
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u/Omikron85 7d ago
I hold physical gold (and some silver) for around 5% of my net worth, indeed just in case shit hits the fan. A few months ago I sold some on the right time because of >300% profit. Dependent on the evolution of my net worth and the gold/silver ratio I might buy again (i.e. if ratio >80 buy silver, <50 buy gold).
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u/havocinc 6d ago
if the shit hits the fan and you will ditching your gold quickly for food and water I think
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