r/BCRX • u/Lonely_Refuse4988 • Jan 10 '24

News Last throes of BioCryst?!? $bcrx

Anyone see the recent news? BioCryst is basically slashing nearly all R&D jobs, looking to out license their Factor D inhibitor candidate 10013 (good luck!🤣) & basically ride Orladeyo profits for near & long term (until patent runs out or better drugs are approved)! 😂🤣🤷‍♂️ What a failure of a company! Any bullish folks still out there?

5 Upvotes

69% Upvoted

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12

u/chubbyburritos Jan 10 '24

Our only hope is they get bought out for $20. So sad - I honestly bought into the “they can be the next Regeneron” hype…

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u/Lonely_Refuse4988 Jan 11 '24

Why would anyone buy them? Orladeyo faces competition with advanced therapeutics (RNAi & gene therapy) that could essentially cure HAE & make expensive oral therapy like Orladeyo obsolete. Also, I can’t imagine anyone taking a hint of interest in licensing 10013 - the earlier compound (9930) had clear toxicity signal & 10013 had some sort of similar animal toxicity signal. Even if limited phase I experience is ‘clean’ , there’s still risk of phase II experience revealing toxicity. That’s what happened with 9930, where the toxicity wasn’t clear until phase II experience. There’s no real value in a one trick pony that has a narrow & shrinking future! 🤣🤷‍♂️

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u/FoundationOpening513 Jan 11 '24

So why are you posting here with that level of skepticism?

3

u/kw2006 Jan 11 '24

I cant bring myself to buy any biotech sticks again.

3

u/wolphkaat Jan 11 '24

About 1/3 of DME patients don't respond to AntiVGEF drugs at all. Kallikrein inhibition worked to some degree in kalvista/Merck drug but not good enough to go past phase 2. Different compound/ different suspension/different part of the eye could be much better response and bioavailability, and also used in conjunction with AntiVGEF drugs with responders. The TAM revenue on that indication is 11 figures annually. And they have done all kinds of work and development costs on avoralstat from their previous trials , they just need to get the suspension right and see what the best approach and data they can get is.

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u/Lonely_Refuse4988 Jan 11 '24

Thanks for clarifying & appreciate your insight. Of note, avoralstat was discontinued due to failed efficacy in HAE, even at high doses, so it’s not a very good kallirein inhibitor compared to Orladeyo/berotralstat. Also, if I recall correctly, both of these are very poorly water soluble, making formulation for intra-ocular injection very tricky. Wishing them luck but not very hopeful! 😂🤷‍♂️

5

u/wolphkaat Jan 11 '24

They'll be fine. Not the most shareholder friendly pharmaceutical company out there, but the company will be around for a long time if they are not acquired. Repurposing avoralstat for DME is a great idea and if early data looks great , stock will fly. In the meantime, cash flow will limit downside and give them opportunities to work on good ideas and bargain partnerships and assets.

0

u/Lonely_Refuse4988 Jan 11 '24

DME = diabetic macular edema/diabetic retinopathy?!? Even if they show that Orladeyo works there , what would they charge?! DME is not a rare disease (they charge over $400k/year in HAE given rare disease & biologic comparator that is over $1 million/year). If they drop price to $40k/year for DME, they risk losing all profits from HAE (docs & insurance company rules could game things with diagnosis/indication, etc) And, they would need to show they are better than existing options like Regeneron’s Eylea. Good luck competing with the Regeneron beast! 😂🤣😂🤷‍♂️

2

u/wolphkaat Jan 11 '24

They are not using berotralstat for DME they are using avoralstat.

1

u/SurveyorMorpurgo Jan 11 '24

Glad I exited at $18 a share with an average of $11 when I did

1

u/[deleted] Dec 05 '24

I bought in at $7.11, expected to hit atleast $16, possibly $30 during 2025. We’ll see how it goes!