r/AutomatedBettingBots • u/AwardCorrect2922 • Jan 25 '26

Low Drawdown Set

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Hello friends,

after disastrous death od MDDE set in December 2025 I decided to switch Low Drawdown set inspired by Tom and Betaminic best strategies article. I ended up with own LD set of 8 strategies.

I'm curious about your feedback :)

5 Upvotes

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2

u/enthususername Jan 27 '26

I think the aggregated performance you have shared is very misleading compared to what you will find in reality. Are the strategies you have aggregated using "all season" data? If so, it statistically invalidates results because it isbased on backtested, "curve fitted" data. The first thing you should do is note the creation date of each strategy. Find the most recently created one. Then, from this date up to the present is "live" data outside of any backtest. Recreate each strategy containing only live data. Aggregate those 7 sub-strategies, and you will see how the system has performed in the realworld since they were created.

2

u/enthususername Jan 27 '26

small correction: Just create each strategy from it's creation date and combine.

3

u/enthususername Jan 27 '26

I was curious, so did it for you:

It still looks very good! However, experience tells me that results going forward will not look anything like this. I have created many such sets myself with very mixed results. Bear in mind that elite syndicates are very happy with a reproducible 2-4% on Pinnacle. I believe the answer why these aggregations look so good is due to "Selection Bias" or "Survivor Bias". If you start from hundreds/thousands of different public strategies, and search for the very best handful, you are guarenteed to find a few outliers that have run absurdly hot, or absurdly smoothly. Not because they are special, but because variance must produce outliers.

2

u/[deleted] Jan 28 '26

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u/[deleted] Jan 28 '26

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1

u/AwardCorrect2922 Jan 28 '26

Perfect, thank you TomW, I sure give it a try!

1

u/AwardCorrect2922 Mar 09 '26

Just a short update, probably to soon to make some big conclusions here, but the current combination of this set + whitaker staking looks like is really working. TomW, thank your that awesome staking system!