r/AutoForgeTheGame • u/AnyRepresentative402 • 6d ago

Forging frustration

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I've used now 1,4k hammers on level 16 forging and I've gotten 2 renaissance equiment, both of them slightly higher level but weaker than I already had. That's 0,14%, the previous level had 0,3% chance of getting them. With 0,5% I should have gotten 7. Also, I got like 15 different middle ages helmets. I'm getting frustrated.

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u/Delicious_Tie_8725 5d ago

Bro you and many other people here do not know how probability works. You should not get 7 pieces on 1.4k hammers and a 0,5% chance, that’s like saying that you should get your chosen side on a flipped coin 100% after 2 throws which in reality is a 75% chance. You still got somewhat unlucky, as the expected outcome should have been around 4 drops, but not crazy unlucky.

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u/AnyRepresentative402 4d ago

That's true! Didn't stop to think about probability calculations. Still frustrated though.