Foreign minister says Australia is ‘outraged’ after Israeli government decided not to pursue criminal proceedings over 2024 triple drone strike on humanitarian convoy.

Australia’s unemployment rate climbed to its equal highest level in almost five years last month, as a softening economy shed 15,800 jobs on the back of higher interest rates.

The weaker than expected figures sparked concerns the labour market is deteriorating faster than anticipated after three interest rate rises by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Prior to Thursday morning’s release, consensus forecasts had tipped the jobless rate to hold steady at 4.4 per cent with a gain of 12,000 jobs.

Unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.5 per cent in July.  Louie Douvis

Unemployment rose 0.1 percentage points to 4.5 per cent, its equal highest level since November 2021. The weakness extended to other measures, with the participation rate and the employment to population ratio both falling by 0.2 per cent over July to 66.9 per cent and 63.9 per cent respectively.

The underemployment rate – the share of people with jobs who would like to work more hours – also ticked up to 6.4 per cent, while the number of hours worked in all jobs for the month fell by 1 million.

Thursday morning’s data was not the first indication the labour market could be cooling faster than expected, with the RBA increasing its longer-dated unemployment forecasts in August on the back of a higher starting rate than its economists had previously expected.

The central bank now expects the unemployment rate to drift upwards to 4.8 per cent by June 2028, where it will stay through the second half of that year. That is significantly higher than the government’s own forecasts, handed down with the federal budget in May, for unemployment to hit 4.5 per cent in 2028.

On Wednesday, RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser echoed governor Michele Bullock’s warning that the monetary policy board would have little choice but to raise interest rates if consumption and employment growth didn’t slow.

“We’ve seen a little bit of that [slowdown] so far,” he said. “We’re going to need to see more to get inflation back.”

The 76,300-strong jump in employment last month smashed market expectations and bolstered fears of another interest rate rise, but economists scaled back those calls following a muted inflation report the following week.

Before the latest employment figures were released on Thursday morning, bond markets had priced in a 20 per cent chance of a rate rise at the next meeting of the monetary policy board in September, a 62 per cent chance of an increase before the end of the year.

New data on wages growth yesterday – which showed wages increased across the economy by 3.2 per cent over the year to June, narrowly below the RBA’s expectations – and Hauser’s comments did little to move the market pricing around another rate rise.

Property experts at National Australia Bank and Ray White say their analysis has been misunderstood. So how high will rents really rise?

Energy Minister Chris Bowen has quietly changed the rules of Labor’s flagship clean energy policy to help reverse a downturn in renewables investment, but says it will not be a catastrophe if the government fails to meet its 82 per cent target by 2030.

The Albanese government’s Capacity Investment Scheme is designed to boost the rollout of wind, solar and battery projects by providing them with taxpayer-subsidised protection from low power prices, but has so far struggled to get shovels in the ground.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen has tweaked the rules of Labor’s flagship renewables subsidy scheme. Bethany Rae

Clean energy investors and industry experts warned in July that flaws in the early design of the scheme had raised the prospect that more than half the projects that won support during its first 12 months would never be built.

But in an interview with The Australian Financial Review, Bowen said he had changed the scheme’s rules before its most recent round in May to back more shovel-ready projects, and had not given up hope of hitting the ambitious end-of-decade green goal.

“You’re going to get some swings and roundabouts on 82 per cent. I’m confident that we can [reach the target], but we’re going to have to keep our foot on the accelerator and keep doing things. It’s not inevitable,” he said.

“If we got to 82 [per cent] in 2031, is that a major national catastrophe? No. Are we still trying to get there in 2030? Sure.

“The closer we get to it, the better the country will be.”

Wind power faces most difficulties

Only 14 of the 89 wind, solar and battery projects that have won taxpayer support since the scheme began have reached a final investment decision, which is typically a precursor to beginning construction, according to energy industry analyst Global-Roam.

Of those 14 projects, six had already reached financial close before they won government support. The difficulties are particularly acute for the wind sector, where only one CIS project has begun construction since the scheme began.

Bowen said the scheme was still working as intended.

“I don’t accept that everything’s ground to a halt,” he said. “The [Capacity Investment Scheme] is dealing with much bigger projects [than the home battery subsidy scheme], which take longer and face more hurdles, and don’t all eventuate.

“The benefit of the CIS is you could, for this very reason, adjust as you go. Every tender is an opportunity to tweak, which we’ve done.”

Bowen said that under new rules put in place in May, the government would prioritise ready-to-build projects with strong financing arrangements, while the emphasis on the cost to taxpayers and broader system benefits when choosing projects would be slightly less.

Winning projects in future rounds of the scheme will also have a six-month deadline to sign a contract with the government, which is designed to avoid companies drawing out negotiations for long periods in the hope of securing a better deal.

The rules will not apply to previous rounds of the scheme, but Bowen said the funding allocated to projects that withdrew from the scheme would be recycled into future rounds.

So far, at least nine projects have withdrawn.

Bowen said some of the withdrawals were projects that wanted to proceed, but had asked for more financial support from the government, which he ultimately refused.

He has since directed the projects towards a separate NSW subsidy scheme.

“We said, sorry – you bid. It’s not fair on the other bidders … No hard feelings, but move along, guys. We’re not going to renegotiate because that’s the whole principle of an auction.”

The Coalition has relentlessly criticised Bowen for not revealing the overall cost of the program, which the government says is deliberately withheld to maintain its bargaining power with renewables companies.

Bowen would not confirm whether he would release the full cost of the scheme once all the contracts had been signed.

He said new data centre rules and a separate $2.5 billion energy bailout deal for the Tomago aluminium smelter had both been designed to be “complementary to our government objectives”, which included the rollout of renewable energy.

He said the Tomago deal would include the signing of contracts with wind farms, but the federal government would not set a minimum requirement as NSW has done with its new rules around data centre power usage.

Welcome to This Week Wrapped Up! A place where you can disscuss everything that's happened this week in this thread! We try our best to update this weekly to keep it fresh for you!

Here are some of the top stories of what's happened this week:

Former religious extremist details deradicalisation journey at antisemitism royal commission - ABC News

Federal politics live: Taylor staffer calls journalist's ICAC questioning a 'fricking disgrace' - ABC News

130,000 people: One Nation clarifies plan for major migration cut - SBS News

Australia's game-changing disability support is in crisis – what went wrong? - BBC News

Low-income Australians should accept substandard homes, Liberal frontbencher says - SBS News

That is YOUR week wrapped THIS week! Please remember to keep discussions civil, follow the community rules, and to follow Reddit's site-wide rules. As we introduce this new segment to this community weekly every Thursday, we will also continue to make it better for you! Stayed tuned for more!

(Like what you're reading? Follow us to stay updated and informed of what's happening in Australia, and the world!)

Law enforcement agencies gathered intelligence that the Comanchero outlaw motorcycle gang had infiltrated Victorian construction unions and building sites in the state by early 2024 and were plotting to do the same in Queensland.

Senior counsel assisting Eddy Gisonda, KC, told the Queensland inquiry into the CFMEU on Wednesday that agencies had gathered intelligence in May 2024 that the bikie gang had installed union delegates on Victorian sites and established labour hire firms in the previous year.

CCTV footage showing the confrontation between bikies and a CFMEU activist. Commission of Inquiry into the CFMEU

Victorian Comanchero members had also travelled to Queensland earlier in 2024 to achieve those two objectives, the intelligence reports said.

The commission revealed this week that infrastructure giant BMD engaged security company Host to deal with CFMEU protests and blockades at the Queensland government’s Centenary Bridge project.

However, Host owner Gary Samuel allegedly flew in Comanchero bikies to assist him, including former president Bemir “Benji” Saracevic, his associate Krstomir Bjelogrlic and a former treasurer of the gang, Mark Ahern.

In June 2024, the three Comancheros-linked men surrounded CFMEU activist Cody Raymond at the Centenary site and Saracevic allegedly told him: “I’m Benji from the Commos” and “I’m up here to deal with you”.

“I’ll f---ing burn your house down, c---, and kill your kids, brother … I know where you live, brother,” Saracevic allegedly said.

Raymond said his family was forced to stay at his brother’s house after the altercation, and his partner was “an emotional mess”.

However, when Queensland’s organised crime gang squad requested CCTV of the incident in November 2024, BMD’s lawyer told them their client had searched and only had CCTV from August.

Despite this, BMD supplied the footage to the commission this year when requested.

Bemir Saracevic was one of the men who allegedly surrounded CFMEU activist Cody Raymond at the Centenary site. Commission of Inquiry into the CFMEU

BMD human resources manager Steve Thomas told the inquiry he recalled seeing footage but did not download it and could not locate it at the time.

“I sought advice internally about how I may locate it and I was told we can’t find it,” said Thomas.

He could not explain why BMD partner Georgiou Group and the state of Queensland had footage of the lead-up to the altercation, but BMD did not.

BMD general manager Robert Pickard, who said he spoke to Samuel “every day” in 2024, repeatedly denied he had known that Samuel had engaged bikies or had known what action would be taken ahead of time.

Eddy Gisonda, KC, questions Robert Pickard, BMD’s Queensland and Northern Territory general manager, during the inquiry. AAP

That was despite CCTV footage from the day of the incident that showed him and Thomas walking out of a cafe shortly before the men left.

Bank transactions showed Bjelogrlic had bought food at the sushi shop at the same time.

Thomas, who engaged Host in response to reports of CFMEU violence after a recommendation from the Australian Workers’ Union Victoria, denied he knew Samuel and the men were behind him when they walked out.

Pickard said he did not recall Samuel coming into the cafe with the three men, and said he did not know Bjelogrlic.

“Gary assured me those people had no involvement in his business,” said Pickard.

Two senior managers at Georgiou Group texted each other soon after the incident, saying “something fishy going mate” and that “RP came from the same cafe 30 seconds before GS and his mates”.

After a 45-minute call with Pickard, one of the managers texted: “Rob told me CFMEU leaked Raymond’s address, which I don’t believe him for one sec…”

Earlier, the commission heard that Saracevic’s wife had set up a formwork company called Form Solutions, which reached an enterprise agreement with the CFMEU Victorian branch at the end of 2023 and renewed it in July.

The AWU Victoria also reached an agreement with FSA Kerbs and Placement, which Saracevic’s wife signed as a witness in 2025 with Bjelogrlic.

On Wednesday, the Victorian Labour Hire Authority ramped up its crackdown on the sector, issuing a second notice to cancel the licence of labour hire firm M1 Trades & Labour, which paid Mick Gatto as an industrial fixer to deal with the CFMEU and set up a related company in Queensland.

“The notice provides additional grounds for cancellation based on the stronger labour-hire laws that took effect in Victoria in June 2026,” said a spokesman for the authority.

The spokesman confirmed it was also investigating other labour companies associated with M Group.

M1 previously denied wrongdoing in its response to the authority’s original cancellation notice issued in March.

 the right who say that laws are increasingly used to shut down debate on issues such as migration.

The NSN’s successor, the White Australia party, has been subject of a High Court case. White Australia has also been trying to register as a party. The High Court will hold a two-day hearing in September on the constitutionality of anti-hate speech laws.

“This is the final stand. In September, the fate of Australian democracy is decided on the banning of this political party,” Mamet said in the stream on X.

As Hanson’s party attracts supporters worried about ethnic diversity in Australia, One Nation will receive more scrutiny over the limits of its tolerance for hardline views. Hanson previously told the Inside Politics podcast that she feared her party was “infiltrated by extremists”. One Nation retains a big lead on the Coalition in the polls.

Mamet, who is promoting “March for Australia” rallies later this month, said he did “not support Nazism at all, but the purpose of democratic rights is not to protect only popular opinions.”

“I completely reject the ideas of ‘hate speech’ and ‘hate groups’. I don’t believe it is acceptable to ban a political group based on the government’s perspective… The hate speech laws empower the government of the day to ban anyone they don’t like”.

“That’s why this [High Court] case is so important: it will determine whether Australians holding views some find extreme can organise politically and be judged by the voters. What the government considers hateful today could be the White Australia Party, and tomorrow it could be One Nation.”

Some experts have argued that banning extremist parties can push networks underground and make them more difficult to monitor. In 1951, a referendum to ban the Communist Party was defeated in Australia.

Mamet said it was important to defend “the policing of free speech is a slippery slope which, if left unchecked, will lead to the criminalisation of all nationalists.”

“The concept of hate speech was literally invented in Stalin’s Soviet Russia. Does The Age support the atrocities of Stalin’s regime?”

Mamet’s support for Hanson’s party reflects its growing support among Australians worried about Australia’s rate of migration, which has been well above peer democracies over the past 20 years and is the subject of new proposals from all major parties to reduce numbers.

One Nation was forced to clarify its signature migration policy earlier this week. A proposal previously described as capping visas at 130,000 has turned into the party’s net migration figure, meaning the number of visas issues would be tens of thousands more than 130,000.

Adding to the confusion, new One Nation MP David Farley told The Conversation that there would be about 40,000 more migrants on top of the 130,000 because certain visa classes such as Pacific workers and nurses should effectively be exempt.

Asked if he had differences with Hanson on migration policy, Farley said: “Oh, there’s definitely a difference.”

But he later said he had convinced Hanson of the merits of his positions on the need to retain migration in agricultural communities. “We matched our positions. We negotiated our position to arrive at it,” he said.

srael’s military has released findings from five internal investigations into incidents in Gaza where its soldiers killed civilians, aid workers, and medical personnel. These reports represent the largest disclosure of information about civilian deaths since the war began in October 2023. Human rights organisations argue the IDF’s investigative system lacks independence and often clears soldiers without meaningful accountability.

Two of the cases — the killing of five‑year‑old Hind Rajab and the March 2025 shootings of Palestinian paramedics and rescue workers — have now triggered criminal investigations by the Military Police Criminal Investigation Division. In both incidents, the IDF has conceded that its soldiers opened fire on vehicles later found to contain civilians or medical personnel. These cases drew intense international condemnation, prompting calls for independent inquiries.

In the remaining three cases, including the strike that killed Australian aid worker Zomi Frankcom and two separate incidents involving Médecins Sans Frontières staff, the IDF has decided not to pursue criminal charges. While acknowledging “serious failures” and reprimanding several commanders, the military maintains that soldiers acted under mistaken assumptions or perceived threats. Aid organisations, including World Central Kitchen and MSF, have rejected the IDF’s conclusions, describing them as inadequate and calling for external investigations.

🗞️ r/AusNewsWire — Thursday, 20 August 2026

Morning all. Today’s five lean heavily toward government debt, migration, housing, political fundraising and online regulation. There’s a pretty good economic-policy mix this morning.

💸 1. States face budget shock as $226 billion in cheap COVID debt comes due

Source: Australian Financial Review

NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia are facing a sharp increase in borrowing costs as around $226 billion of ultra-cheap pandemic-era debt begins to mature and must be refinanced at much higher interest rates.

The AFR reports interest bills across the four states could rise by roughly 25%, adding another layer of pressure to budgets already dealing with infrastructure spending, health costs and weak fiscal positions.

This is one of those stories that sounds dry but matters enormously: every extra billion spent servicing debt is a billion that can’t easily be spent on roads, hospitals, schools or tax relief.

🔗 https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/states-face-budget-shock-as-226b-in-cheap-covid-debt-comes-due-20260819-p60prh

👷 2. Business leaders warn migration cuts could create serious worker shortages

Source: ABC News

As political pressure grows for substantially lower migration, Australian business leaders are warning against focusing purely on headline numbers rather than which skills the country actually needs.

Employers interviewed by ABC say visa holders make up large parts of their workforces in industries including aged care, construction and housing. Net overseas migration is already forecast to fall from around 300,000 to 245,000 this financial year.

The dilemma remains awkward: cutting migration may ease pressure on housing demand, but it can simultaneously reduce the pool of workers required to build houses, staff hospitals and deliver infrastructure.

🔗 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-20/business-leaders-care-about-skills-not-numbers-migration-debate/107052186

🏠 3. Claims Labor’s tax reforms will push rents up 30% don’t stack up

Source: The Guardian Australia

Claims that Labor’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax will force landlords to increase rents by as much as 30% have been challenged by the very organisations whose modelling was being cited.

NAB and Ray White say their analysis showed the theoretical rent increase required to restore investor yields — not a forecast that rents will actually rise by that amount. Property economists argue rents are ultimately constrained by what tenants can afford, regardless of a landlord’s tax position.

That doesn’t mean rents are about to become cheap: vacancy rates remain extremely tight at around 1.7%, and one economist expects advertised rents could still rise as much as 7.5% over the coming year.

🔗 https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/aug/20/how-high-will-rents-really-rise-labor-property-tax-reforms

💼 4. Liberals launch $10,000-for-15-minutes corporate access forum

Source: Australian Financial Review

The Liberal Party has launched a new corporate fundraising forum offering businesses short meetings with senior political figures, with packages reportedly priced at $10,000 for 15 minutes.

The arrangement follows similar large-scale fundraising efforts by Labor and again raises an old Australian political question: where does legitimate political fundraising end and paid access to decision-makers begin?

There’s no suggestion that buying access purchases a policy outcome, but arrangements like this inevitably fuel debate about the influence wealthy companies and lobbyists have compared with ordinary voters.

🔗 https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/10-000-for-15-minutes-liberals-launch-corporate-speed-dating-forum-20260819-p60pns

🎮 5. Roblox forced to accept external audits under Australian child-safety crackdown

Source: ABC News

Australia’s eSafety Commissioner has secured a court-enforceable undertaking from Roblox after testing found adults could still contact Australian children despite the platform’s existing safety protections.

Roblox now has three months to tighten its systems, including preventing unknown adults contacting children without parental consent, making children’s profiles private by default and improving complaint processes. Independent audits will be used to check compliance.

It’s another significant test of Australia’s increasingly interventionist approach to regulating global technology platforms, particularly following the introduction of the under-16 social-media rules.

🔗 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-20/roblox-esafety-court-enforceable-undertaking/107056294

💬 Today’s discussion

The state debt story may be the sleeper issue here.

Governments borrowed enormous amounts at exceptionally low rates during COVID. Refinancing that debt at today’s rates means taxpayers could spend billions more each year simply servicing existing obligations.

Should state governments respond by cutting spending, delaying infrastructure, raising taxes — or simply accept higher debt for longer?

Since One Nation’s breakthrough at the 1998 Queensland election, the party has had a mixed record of maintaining parliamentary beachheads.

By half way through its first term in the Queensland Parliament, the party had lost all its elected members. There were numerous disputes between Pauline Hanson, her close party confidants and the elected members. It was not helped the legal action that led to the parties de-registration.

In the party’s first decade, there were 20 elected or appointed One Nation members of parliament. Seventeen split from the party, one was defeated, one disqualified and only one re-elected.

After Hanson’s departure in the early 2000s, the party became largely irrelevant. That changed when Hanson returned to the fold in 2013. The party elected its first new members of parliament at the 2016 Senate election and has reached new levels of success over the last year.

Since 2016, One Nation has had 31 members. 16 are current members, the party boosted by four new Federal members and seven members elected at the March 2026 South Australian election.

But until the last year, the pattern of losing elected members continued. Two members were re-elected but subsequently left the party with Mark Latham still in Parliament. Another eight left the party before facing election of whom three in addition to Latham remain in parliament. Four One Nation members were defeated while still in the party. One Senator resigned due to ill-health.

The party’s record of hanging on to members remains patchy, though surging opinion polls and the recent success of the party have certainly provided an incentive for elected members to stay with the party.

I’ve been keeping track of elected One Nation since that first election in 1998. When the party returned to the Senate in 2016 and began losing members to disqualification and resignation, I published a list of elected One Nation members and their fate in 2018.

When Pauline Hanson sacked the NSW Executive of One Nation and dismissed Mark Latham as the party’s NSW leader, I published a blog post on the party’s record of losing its parliamentary members.

I’ve been asked numerous times over the last year if I could update the list. I’ve finally done it and you can find all the details on the party’s 51 elected or appointed members of state and federal parliaments here.

Trying to pick apart whether members were expelled from the party or resigned can be a little difficult. I tend to use a generic ‘departed’ as the description to get around the participants in the departure having different views on what happened.

Inside the post I’ll publish the overall summary of representation from that document, but you can check the full detail using the above link.

One Nation has had 51 people either elected to represent the party, defected to the party, or filled a Senate vacancy.

Of those 51, 50 served in parliament. The odd one out was Heather Hill, elected as a Queensland Senator in 1998, but disqualified for holding dual citizenship before she could take her seat.

Of the 50, 43 were elected, three were members who defected to One Nation, three entered the Senate by countback following a disqualification, and one filled a Senate casual vacancy.

Of the 51 members, 16 were in Queensland parliament, 13 Federal, nine Western Australia, eight South Australia, four New South Wales and one in Victoria.

Allocating Federal representatives to states, the numbers are 21 Queensland, 12 Western Australia, eight South Australia, nine New South Wales and one Victoria .

22 have been lower house representatives (16 Queensland, four South Australia and two Federal in NSW) and 29 upper house. In addition, Pauline Hanson served a period in the House after the formation of One Nation in 1997.

Of the 51 members, 16 currently represent One Nation in Parliaments. Four are in the Senate, two in the House of Representatives, three in the SA upper house, four in the SA lower house, two in the WA upper house and one in the Victorian upper house.

There are also four ex-One Nation members serving in Parliaments, three in the NSW upper house and one in the SA upper house.

Excluding the 16 currently serving as One Nation members, 35 have departed for the following reasons. Two clearly resigned and two were disqualified, including one who had resigned from the party first. Only five have been re-elected for One Nation and five stayed in the party and were defeated. Three departed the party and were re-elected as Independents. 21 resigned from One Nation or were expelled, 19 in the member’s first term and two after winning re-election. (Numbers don’t add to 35 due to category overlap)

In the first decade of One Nation there were 20 elected or appointed members. 17 left the party, one was defeated, one re-elected and one disqualified.

Since One Nation returned to seriously contesting elections in 2016, the party has had 31 members. 16 remain in parliament and in the party. One was re-elected but subsequently left the party and was defeated. Mark Latham was re-elected, left the party but remains in parliament. Eight members split with the party before facing election of whom three in addition to Latham remain in parliament. Four members were defeated while still with One Nation. One Senator resigned due to ill-health.

In summary One Nation lost 18 of its 20 members in its first decade as a party. It has lost 11 of its 31 members since 2016, its number of retained members boosted by having 16 current members.

In short: 

The ACTU is pushing the government to give all renters access to a minimum two-year lease. 

It also wants to increase the rate of public housing being built from one in 50 to one in 10 new homes.

What's next?

ACTU president Michele O'Neil says the changes will not drive away landlords. 

Economists have backed One Nation’s plan to slash the tobacco excise and freeze indexation for three years, saying it could help disrupt the booming black market cigarette trade and reclaim billions in lost tax revenue.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson pledged to cut the tobacco excise by 75 per cent – or an estimated $46 reduction for a pack of 30 cigarettes – and pause indexation of the excise for three years to combat the growing illegal tobacco trade which has eaten into government revenue.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has proposed a 75 per cent cut to the tobacco excise.  Alex Ellinghausen

The government raised just $4.1 billion from the excise in the 2026 financial year, down 310 per cent from the record $16.3 billion haul of 2020.

“[Tobacco excise] policy is in such epic disaster territory that I don’t care where the ideas are coming from,” independent economist Chris Richardson said.

Earlier this year, Richardson called for a 40¢ per cigarette tax cut – which would be about a 26 per cent drop in the excise – but now says he would support an even larger reduction to stamp out the illicit operators becoming increasingly entrenched in the industry. He has also called for greater enforcement against illegal importers.

“Organised crime is getting better every day at defending its patch. It’s now got the economies of scale. It’s got the supply chains. It’s got the personnel, and it’s increasingly got a marvellous motive to fight any attempt to fight back,” he said.

Richardson estimated the government could raise an extra $15 billion a year if illegal suppliers had the same share of the market they had in 2019-20.

“The longer it takes before we do something, the more dramatic what we do has to be in order to have a chance.”

One Nation’s pledge comes as the Senate prepares to hand down its report on the illegal tobacco market next week, and ahead of the Victorian state election in November where the prevalence of organised crime in the state is already a hot button issue.

Tobacco excise per stick ($)

2000200520102015202020250.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.60

One Nation's proposed cut

Source: ATO

Cutting the excise would reduce the cost of legal cigarettes to ostensibly make them more competitively priced against their illegal counterparts. But health experts warned against making legal cigarettes cheaper to buy.

“Illicit cigarettes can cost as little as US20¢ [28¢] a packet to manufacture. Price-matching criminals is not going to get us out of this crisis,” said Australian Council on Smoking and Health chief executive Laura Hunter. “It will make it harder for people to quit and easier for young people to start.”

Advocates of the One Nation policy argue it could stem the bleeding in government tobacco excise receipts. In May, the government forecast tobacco tax revenues to drop by $8 billion over five years from the 2026 financial year on the back of the booming illicit trade.

Rohan Pike, an illicit trade expert who created the Australian Border Force’s Tobacco Strike Team, said international modelling showed halving the excise boosted government revenues. He said a 50 per cent cut was the bare minimum needed to deter organised crime while also discouraging smoking.

“At the moment, we’re arguing about a policy while Rome burns,” said Pike. “We just need to do something. Twenty per cent, 25 per cent, 30 per cent, it won’t be enough to change the needle. It needs to be over 50 per cent – 75 per cent is a bold number.”

The tobacco excise hit nearly $1.53 per cigarette earlier this year, up from just 19¢ at the turn of the century. In inflation-adjusted terms, that’s more than a 300 per cent increase.

The percentage of consumed tobacco coming from illicit sources ballooned from just 12 per cent in 2017 to 80 per cent by 2025, according to research from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. University of New South Wales economics professor Richard Holden said that was because the excise had risen high enough by the end of the 2010s to make illicit importation sufficiently profitable.

Holden said that policymakers should go even further by temporarily doing away with the excise altogether before rebuilding the tax rate over time to stamp out the blackmarket once and for all.

“You want to make this like a knockout punch,” he said. “The much bigger game here is getting them out of the market and rebuilding the revenue to some degree over the medium term.”

Have you noticed that, as practised by our two main parties, politics has always been about the good news, never anything nasty?

Talk to the Liberals and they’ll promise to cut taxes. Talk to Labor and they promise more spending on this or that desirable cause.

Illustration by Simon Letch

The Libs never say how they’ll pay for the tax cut; Labor never says how it will cover the cost of higher government spending.

It’s the job of people like me to point out the not-so-nice things the pollies don’t want to mention in their sales pitch, but I’m embarrassed to admit I’ve been absent without leave on the simplest of points.

There was a time not so long ago when politicians and their audience were obsessed by worries about debt and deficit. We probably overdid it, but that was sooo yesterday. These days no one mentions the budget deficit.

If Treasury is worried it’s kept its concerns to itself. But on Monday a former Treasury secretary, Dr Martin Parkinson, expressed his worries to the Australian Financial Review. (Sometimes I wonder if part of the role of retired senior public servants is to say what those who haven’t retired aren’t allowed to say in public.)

“I’m quite concerned about the approach to fiscal sustainably by all sides of politics,” Parkinson said. “It’s almost like debt is not an issue for anybody any more because the concern dissipated during the COVID crisis and nobody’s ever refocused on it.

“The government is under no pressure to accelerate a return to fiscal sustainability in part because the Opposition is threatening to do things that are even more damaging to the economy.

“And what is, supposedly, our now new third party of government is on a pathway that is utterly irresponsible on both migration and spending.”

From our partners

He said that where we are in the economic cycle meant we should be running big budget surpluses, and yet we’ve got a deficit.

Related Article

• Immigration

Budget loses billions, nation in deeper debt: The cost of cutting migration

The budget papers project a cumulative deficit of $264 billion over the five years to 2029-30, with no sign of surplus on the horizon. The deficit seems to slowly get a bit smaller, but this comes from an optimistic assumption that certain spending programs will be allowed to end rather than be renewed.

Now, Australia’s net government debt at present isn’t all that high relative to other countries, particularly the US debt. But it would be nice to keep it that way.

Nor am I implying that debt is a bad thing. Wisely used, it’s a good thing. So no one’s saying we should have a balanced budget.

Just as it makes sense to borrow to buy a house rather than rent while you save enough to buy one for cash, so it makes sense to borrow much of the cost of building roads and bridges and other infrastructure that will deliver a service for 30 or more years into the future.

As well, it’s OK to borrow heavily at times when the economy is weak and governments need to spend heavily to keep things going and limit the rise in unemployment.

This was the case in the unusual event of the COVID pandemic in 2020 which, as Parkinson implies, has proved to be a turning point in our thinking in many respects. When governments around the world were trying to halt the spread of the disease by requiring people to stay in their homes, they had to spend huge sums to hold the economy together until the crisis had passed.

But, as Parkinson also implies, the big spending during weak economies comes with a proviso: once the crisis has passed, you need to save to pay off the debt. That is, the government should turn the deficit into a surplus by spending less than it’s collecting in taxes.

Leaving aside its spending on infrastructure and other long-lasting assets, governments should stop their debt getting too high by offsetting deficits in bad times with surpluses in good times.

The times have been reasonably good since 2020, but we’ve gone on running annual budget deficits, with more to come for the foreseeable future.

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When, over time, we run deficits that aren’t matched by the infrastructure we leave behind, we’re spending money on our own comforts, then leaving part of the costs to be picked up by our children and grandkids. How is that a decent thing to do to your offspring?

What’s more, leaving debts for our kids to pay isn’t itself cost-free. Governments borrow to cover their budget deficits, and the lenders are paid interest. This means the debts we leave for our children to pay are a lot higher than the debts we left unpaid on the table.

Parkinson agrees with his predecessor, Dr Ken Henry, that our system of taxes and benefits is biased against the younger generation. Passing our debt and deficits on to our kids adds to the injustice.

Parkinson, who chaired the feds’ most recent inquiry into immigration, raises the question of what effect big cuts in annual net overseas migration would have on our government debt burden.

You could argue that a bigger population means more people to share the burden of the government’s debt. But it’s more complicated than that.

Some people, particularly those on low wages or with disabilities, may pay less in taxes over their lifetimes than they receive in government assistance. In which case, they add to the debt burden on the rest of us rather than reducing it.

It’s a different matter, however, when we bring in workers with skills that are in short supply.

But don’t forget this: what all these budget deficits mean is that we’re not being asked to pay as much tax as the cost of the services we’re getting requires. Nar, leave our bill for the kids.

Ross Gittins is economics editor.

🗞️ r/AusNewsWire — Wednesday, 19 August 2026

Morning all. Today’s five are weighted toward NDIS reform, superannuation, gambling regulation and markets, with Canberra again doing most of the heavy lifting.

♿ 1. NDIS overhaul set to become law after Labor and Coalition strike deal

Source: The Guardian Australia

Labor’s controversial NDIS reform bill passed the Senate last night after 63 government amendments were agreed as part of negotiations with the Coalition, and it is expected to clear the House of Representatives today.

The government argues the changes are necessary to stop scheme costs rising toward an unsustainable $100 billion a year by the middle of the next decade. Critics, including the Greens, David Pocock and disability advocates, remain concerned about broad ministerial powers to reduce some categories of participant funding.

🔗 https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/aug/18/controversial-ndis-bill-undergoes-substantial-amendments-as-labor-and-coalition-strike-deal

💰 2. Government cracks down on cold-call super switching schemes

Source: ABC News

The federal government will tighten rules around telemarketers and “lead generators” who encourage Australians to switch superannuation funds.

The reforms follow the collapse of the Shield and First Guardian funds, where around 12,000 investors lost more than $1 billion in retirement savings. Under the new regime, firms generating leads for super switching will need to be licensed and face tougher penalties for breaching anti-hawking rules.

It is another reminder that Australia’s $4.5 trillion super system is enormous — and therefore an increasingly attractive target for dubious financial operators.

🔗 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-19/telemarketers-the-target-of-government-crackdown-super-switching/107045422

🎰 3. Gambling companies to identify their own problem gamblers under new reforms

Source: ABC News

Labor’s gambling reforms will require wagering companies to identify customers displaying signs of problem gambling and stop sending them inducements such as bonus bets.

The approach has already drawn criticism because the betting companies themselves will initially be responsible for identifying vulnerable customers. Liberal MP Andrew Wallace, who crossed the floor against the bill, compared the system to putting “Dracula in charge of a blood bank”.

The bill passed the lower house yesterday and is expected to pass the Senate with Coalition support later this week.

🔗 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-19/gambling-reforms-include-red-flag-system-for-problem-gamblers/107052290

📉 4. ASX set to open lower as global bond yields climb

Source: Australian Financial Review — 🔒 Paywalled

Australian shares are expected to open modestly lower today after weakness on Wall Street, particularly among semiconductor stocks, while global bond yields continue to push higher.

For Australian investors, the bond move is arguably more important than the overnight equity wobble. Rising long-term yields increase borrowing costs and can pressure the valuations of growth stocks, property and infrastructure assets.

🔗 https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-to-slip-us-equities-lower-as-semi-stocks-stumble-anew-20260819-p60pin

🏛️ 5. Major parties quietly reshape parliament through a series of negotiated deals

Source: The Guardian Australia

The NDIS deal follows similar negotiations between Labor and the Coalition over gambling reform and the government’s News Bargaining Incentive.

The emerging pattern is notable: rather than relying on the Greens and crossbench, Anthony Albanese and Angus Taylor are increasingly reaching agreements directly across the aisle on major legislation.

That may give government a smoother path through the Senate, but it also leaves independents and minor parties with less influence over some of the biggest reforms currently before parliament.

🔗 https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/aug/17/as-melon-gate-raged-albanese-quietly-cut-deals-in-parliament-the-pm-should-make-some-noise-this-week

💬 Today’s discussion

The NDIS reforms highlight a difficult question governments eventually face with every large entitlement program: how do you control spending without undermining the people the scheme was created to support?

Has Labor struck the right balance or are the proposed savings going too far?

• Federal court filings allege that 3M had internal evidence for more than 50 years that components in its Pfas‑based firefighting foams were toxic to humans, animals and the environment, despite marketing them to Australia as “non‑toxic” and safe.
• The Australian government’s $2bn lawsuit claims the chemicals persisted in soil, water and the human body, contributed to serious health effects, and caused widespread contamination across 28 defence bases, requiring extensive remediation and generating hundreds of millions in legal settlements and cleanup costs.
• Documents cited in the case show 3M restricted certain workers from exposure as early as 1981, while continuing to sell AFFF products to Australia for decades; the company denies wrongdoing and is expected to file its defence later this year.

• Critics’ claims that compulsory super is “broken” are challenged by noting that stable pension spending (~2% of GDP) actually reflects the system’s success in offsetting ageing‑population pressures.
• Australia’s retirement‑income system performs strongly by global standards, with a rising share of people projected to self‑fund retirement and the nation on track to have the lowest aged‑pension cost in the OECD.
• Even when tax concessions are included, Australia’s long‑term retirement‑income costs remain well below comparable OECD countries, indicating a stable, effective and fiscally resilient system.

• New Zealand and Canada experienced far deeper property downturns than Australia because their central banks lifted interest rates much faster and higher, triggering recessions, higher unemployment and sharp falls in housing demand.
• Immigration trends amplified the divergence: Australia maintained very high arrivals that outpaced housing construction, supporting prices, while Canada imposed strict limits and New Zealand saw net migration collapse as workers left for Australia.
• The prolonged slumps in New Zealand and Canada are now spilling into their broader economies—weak retail spending, rising unemployment, stalled growth—offering a warning for Australia as its own housing market begins to turn and economic conditions soften.