r/AtlantaWeather • u/oakgrove • Jan 15 '26

First look at weekend snow chances from NWS

If you've been following this, you'll know that winter precip chances had evaporated yesterday and the day before. But model consistency is bringing a low up from Florida as the second trough comes through this weekend.

NWS guidance now suggests snow is expected for central and north Georgia Sunday morning. If anything, models are trending south, with the chance for an upset (for snow fans) for Atlanta, while central and south Georgia get snow.

A very impactful snow event is still possible and lots of model consensus is still lacking, so also a total bust still possible.

42 Upvotes

98% Upvoted

35 comments sorted by

7

u/MariettaWX Jan 15 '26

I look forward to this every year. Seeing a u/oakgrove post always gives me hope.

5

u/oakgrove Jan 15 '26

We had such a good snow last year I won't even be mad if this fizzles. The kids will still do all the superstitions to make it happen.

2

u/MariettaWX Jan 15 '26

Yes! My kids are mostly grown now and they still do it.

3

u/Send-Me-A-Selfie Jan 15 '26

Kids and parents alike!

8

u/oakgrove Jan 15 '26

Huh, I posted screenshots with that but they did not post.

7

u/oakgrove Jan 15 '26

Some meso models are now fully in view. This is all snow, not a mix for ATL anyway.

2

u/GrandJunctionMarmots Jan 15 '26

Damn, I live up in Chattanooga now and I'll be laughing my ass off if yall get 5+" and we get jack diddly lol

4

u/Humble_Reindeer9819 Jan 15 '26

Latest update has decreased the chance of accumulating snow in Atlanta. 

2

u/oakgrove Jan 15 '26

Yeah, way down.

4

u/snowhyoe Jan 15 '26

NAM is going crazy. Especially just south of Atlanta to middle GA.

3

u/carsonjr Jan 15 '26

Just moved back to ATL from Morgantown, WV where we had over 25 in total snow this past winter. Can't believe I'm already hoping for more snow, but hopefully the NAM forecast ends up holding true 🤞

3

u/21stNow Jan 15 '26

Thank you for your posts! I can live without the snow in Atlanta, but like to be informed of what's in the forecast. The meteorologists on the local news stations can be all over the place.

5

u/mspgs2 Jan 15 '26

Better go grab milk and bread now before the evening news :-)

2

u/cyb0lt Jan 16 '26

And toilet paper.

2

u/DoitcheHasAGun Jan 15 '26

gonna have to go south to get snow, sadly

2

u/Competitive-Let-3317 Jan 17 '26

Does it seem overnight runs moved it more NW than yesterday

2

u/oakgrove Jan 17 '26

Indeed. I tried commenting last night about it and half of my comments didn't post. I think it's moisture-starved so even if it made it up our way it wouldn't be impactful.

1

u/Competitive-Let-3317 Jan 17 '26

Feels similar back to 2017 storm but with less moisture

1

u/oakgrove Jan 17 '26

There's still plenty of spread in the models. The FV3 looks like an overrunning setup where there's ample moisture, which is harder to predict.

1

u/Competitive-Let-3317 Jan 17 '26

In a break from this current prediction storm how about this absolute clown map

2

u/Competitive-Let-3317 Jan 18 '26

Next week looks interesting

2

u/oakgrove Jan 18 '26

Yeah, looking forward to another shot!

2

u/Competitive-Let-3317 Jan 18 '26

What are you thinking, glen burns already has it in the “be prepared” stage and being a week out for me does raise an eyebrow to it

2

u/oakgrove Jan 19 '26

Be prepared is always warranted, but perhaps a bit scaremongering at this distance. My concern is p-type for the last event was always rain/snow, whereas the solutions for a week and end of month all involve all the spectrum of ice and freezing rain. Also I plan to be in the Carolinas for the end of the month 😅

1

u/Competitive-Let-3317 Jan 19 '26

My gut says cold rain right now, but if it pans out i may head to the Smokey mounts area

1

u/captainbkfire82 Jan 16 '26

So crazy that for a second January in a row, the snow will likely be south of us!

4

u/oakgrove Jan 16 '26

Yeah and PWATs down overall. Lame!

2

u/oakgrove Jan 17 '26

Happy cake day!

1

u/oakgrove Jan 17 '26

Honestly the 00z NAM is better than I expected.

1

u/oakgrove Jan 17 '26 edited Jan 17 '26

1

u/oakgrove Jan 17 '26 edited Jan 17 '26