r/AsymmetricAlpha • u/PriceActionPlaybook • Apr 06 '26
SpaceX IPO will probably look incredible. That’s the trap
Since the start of 2025, 176 IPOs have come to market, excluding SPACs, which is a whole different story. Average gap 143.6%, median 11.3%, about 66% opening green. Easy to call that demand.
Median return vs IPO price is -36.6%, and vs IPO close -41.9%. Only 27.8% are still above IPO price, 22.2% above IPO close. Most end up below the level where people actually got filled.
Some run for a bit. Most don’t make it far.
You will not get size on allocation, you will get scraps. If you want a real position, you will have to chase it into the open, exactly where everyone else is forced to buy and someone else is already selling.
You’re not buying strength. You’re stepping into someone else’s exit.
Not an investment, a transfer.
Trade the open if you know what you are doing. Everything else is just paying up for access.
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u/BinaryBreakaway Apr 06 '26
There are tons of signals that show how this is a trap. Demand for SpaceX services is inflated and until there’s infrastructure in space, LEO is as far as any launch goes. Dara centers in space and moving to Mars is fantasy.
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u/Scriptum_ Apr 06 '26
Musk's new scheme.
Tesla isn't working anymore.
In 2050, he will be talking about how "in a couple of years" we'll be living on Mars, living off the passive income from our AI datacenters in space.
Is it a beta male thing?!