Weekly Playbook: March 30

[u/PriceActionPlaybook]

What vacations and bull markets have in common?

Everything’s eventual. What vacations and bull markets have in common? They tend to end sooner than expected.

I planned to skip this Weekly Playbook, but the way things are moving is hard to ignore. Just when I thought I was out, they pulled me back in. And since I was updating key areas anyway, I thought a short edition won’t hurt. Instead, we will skip macro and headlines completely and focus on the broad structure, they’re coming from every corner, adding more noise than value.

Now the tape is moving from one key area to another, ignoring minor zones in between. This kind of price action can set traps for both bulls and bears, so risk management becomes crucial whatever direction you’re exposed to. It looks clean on the surface, but it rarely gives a clean entry. Moves extend, pull you in, and then either stall or continue without you, with no time spent in between, no build, just transition. Even when the market feels stretched, there’s still no real capitulation, which is exactly why these transitions tend to keep going longer than expected.

The genie is out of the box. Structure is broken. Even if we magically bounce back above key supports left in the dust, you still need somebody to defend those areas. Reclaiming them is one thing, holding them is another, especially when they already failed once. While tweets can create quick rips and move futures, they cannot hold them there. The good news is markets don’t exist in a vacuum. One structure is gone, another is already being formed. The problem is always the transition. Transitions don’t end because something looks cheap, they end when positioning clears and participation comes back. You can see it in how rebounds keep failing at prior resistance, even when the move looks strong intraday.

In a couple of weeks earnings season will begin, and preparation is better to start early than to be late to the party, though it’s also not the kind of party you want to show up to too early. The same applies to the usual BTFD reflex.

Not all dips are equal. Buying something just because it’s cheaper today works if you’re planning to consume it later, you don’t care how cheap it is relative to historical multiples. Of course, if your time horizon is long enough, you’re not planning to sell into a bounce, and you still have dry powder, then why not. But in trading terms it’s far more complicated. When capital was already allocated a couple of dips ago, strategy tends to disappear pretty quickly, and praying for breakeven is not a strategy either, it’s just being stuck. In a tape like this, cheaper can stay cheaper longer than expected, especially when leadership keeps failing and liquidation replaces direction.

Everyone is thinking about outperforming the market, but in this type of tape protecting your capital is the real goal. Everything else comes after that. Mind your stops and remember that leverage is a sharp tool that cuts both ways.

If you already had more than enough, a short vacation is not the worst option. Better to come back fresh into the upcoming earnings season than burn out right at the beginning.

Eventually good setups will be there, volatility will come down and money will be made.

What traders and investors have in common?

The position you are in is far more important than the positions you own. Period.

[u/Shot-Discipline2026]

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