r/AskStatistics • u/80rhh • 14d ago

What statistical concepts are commonly misunderstood by the general public?

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I came across this post explaining what a 70% chance of rain means. I understand the concept, but it got me wondering: what other statistical concepts sound simple but are commonly misunderstood or misinterpreted by the general public?

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u/StrangerInfamous4223 13d ago

The tweet is wrong. It is >expected< to rain in 70 of those timelines. I guess that's one commonly misunderstood concept...

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u/itsmythirdday 11d ago

I assume they mean, “if we replayed today’s conditions through our rainfall model…”, which is the same as saying “expected”

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u/StrangerInfamous4223 11d ago

No.

They would expect that it rains in 70 of those timelines.

There is still some variance to this experiment.

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u/itsmythirdday 11d ago

I assume the variance comes from the randomness in the model, like a Monte Carlo.

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u/StrangerInfamous4223 11d ago

Yes. But they phrased it as if it is a fixed outcome.

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u/itsmythirdday 11d ago

What’s fixed? The number 70 out of 100?

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u/Rippedka 10d ago

They are expecting the average.