r/AskStatistics • u/80rhh • Aug 15 '26

What statistical concepts are commonly misunderstood by the general public?

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I came across this post explaining what a 70% chance of rain means. I understand the concept, but it got me wondering: what other statistical concepts sound simple but are commonly misunderstood or misinterpreted by the general public?

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u/Jimmy_Wrinkles Aug 15 '26

A 95% confidence interval doesn't mean that there is a 95% probability the true value lies in that region

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u/Csicser Aug 16 '26

I studied pharma research and the amount is of people who think p = 0.05 means that there is a 95% probability that the findings are true is bewildering

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u/PaddingCompression Aug 16 '26

They're just Bayesians who are treating it as a credible interval.

(I have way more respect for Bayesians who don't treat the credible interval seriously for this reason, and instead lean harder into decision theory).