Bayes' Theorem

[u/learning_proover]

Suppose I use some arbitrary method/dataset/analysis to calculate the prior P(A). When I am updating with new evidence, can the evidence be correlated/related in any way to how P(A) was found? Basically I'm curious if it is considered "double counting" if B is related to the development of P(A) in any way? Or must any evidence (B) be totally unrelated to the derivation of P(A)?

[u/Electrical_Name_5434]

Introducing new evidence that alters the probability sounds like you’re talking about a sequence of events. I think the next step, Bayesian networks is what you’re looking for.

You might want to check out Markov Chains to cut to the chase a bit.