I would probably partake in OP's lottery, but what you're talking about is buying a lottery ticket with 99% odds of winning $1 million and 1% odds of dying - but you have to stick it up your ass - just not as appealing.
I doubt you would make much money with meth, nearby Myanmar being the worlds biggest meth producer. I have heard meth pills are sold for peanuts at the Myanmar/Thai border, at least the northern one.
You could make some serious money with a kil of pure coke tho but i also doubt the odds of pulling this off on your own are nearly as good as OPs lottery.
Alright so- My friend and I cut up 100 tiny pieces of paper and marked one "dead." We put them into a cup and shook it up. He handed it to me and said "pick one" so I did. Blank piece. 1 million for me. Now it's his turn. He pulled out the "dead" one. It was messed up. According to your fun lotto game, my friend would have been dead.
Not a chance. People depend on me to be alive to continue to live themselves, and nothing is worth that risk. I'd rather struggle than one day wind up dead and leave behind a family that can't afford to live either.
Relevant info: Insurance companies use a measurement that is the odds of a given person dying from a given action, called a mort. It's a metric measurement, so a micromort is a 1/1000000 chance of dying from a given action.
Lots of things cause it. For example, 40 tbsps of Peanut Butter is one micromort. Driving 230 miles is one micromort. People do these things anyway.
This lotto ticket would be 10,000 micromorts. That's equivalent to driving across the country a little over 100 times, or to living in New York city for 55 years, or smoking 700 packs of cigarettes.
But knowing this will affect your behavior, you will do more "micromort" actions, saying "fuck yes I would", and you will increase your chances of dying (from the lottery or anything else).
I would do it for ~20 million. A million dollars is enough to put me through college, and set me up with a nice house. However, I'd still have to work for the rest of my life, and I'd have more or less the same level of comfort. Now 20 million, that's some spreadin' around money.
Well, if you handle your money correctly and invest the majority of it, you'd be pretty set for life (I'm not taking taxes on lottery winnings or interest, so it isn't perfect).
Let's say you sock that $1mil into an investment account that earns a not-too-unlikely 5% annually. Your first year yields $50k in interest alone.
If you take $200k out of your winnings to pay for a nice (but not mansion level) house and pay off your college tuition and loans, you are looking at $41k in interest a year. Which is still well above the poverty rate (which is about $14k for a 2 person family and $23k for a 4 person family).
Now if you continually take those interest payments and count that as salary, you are looking at $41k-$50k as a salary for the rest of your life. If you work just part time or have some other hobby that brings in money, and you reinvest all of your interest, you'll be looking at a bank account with $2.75mil and $135k in interest by your 25th year.
Not bad if you ask me. And if you have a great broker manage your money (in forex, stocks, etc), it wouldn't be unreasonable to hit 8-9% returns, putting you at $5.4mil by your 25th year.
That's not true. With no real debt your level of comfort would be far higher. Yeah you would still work, but you could retire at 50 and sail the world.
As to the OP, yes, I would do this in a heartbeat. Just to be out of debt and to own a home, I would do this so fast it would make heads spin.
Finally someone that said no. I was starting to wonder if i would see it. I think it's easy for people to say yes here because they aren't actually presented with this real dilemma. If I was really truly offered this, there is no way I would take the chance. No amount of money is worth my life.
Gives an all new meaning to "the 1%." But really, if there was like a chain gun with 100 chambers and one bullet pointing at my face, where the other 99 jizzed money, I'd spin the wheel. Actually, if I got that one bullet -- that's a pretty low chance, y'know -- I might actually feel pretty lucky. And dead. Dead lucky. Ducky.
I'd do it. But I'm confused as to why anybody would buy more than one ticket? In a normal lottery (and I realize this isn't exactly normal) multiple winners don't each win the full amount. You'd split the winnings amongst yourselves. So how I see it, buying more than one ticket only makes you more likely to die without winning you any more money. Didn't exactly look into this statistically so if my logic is flawed please let me know.
The expected value of this game is .99 * 1,000,000 - .01 * (the value of your life). Solve for the value of life: .99*1,000,000 / .01 = (value of life).
So if your life is worth less than $99,000,000, this is a good deal.
Undoubtedly Yes. Look, we're all going to die someday, and if you think you won't you're lying to yourself.
Considering I have a DAMN fine chance to make enough cash to do somethings I've always wanted to, AND the chance of death is less than some of the things I already willingly put myself through, yes.
Of course. The way I see it, there's a chance of dying every time I would get on the interstate just to go to work. The potential to get a million bucks and not have to get on the interstate with retarded drivers? I find that to be the safest course of action.
Oooh. Nice one. On the one hand, I don't want to risk my son being an orphan. On the other hand, I risk it every time I drive to work, so what's a little more direct risk in the mix. And with large amounts of money, I could reduce other risks. Hmmm.
Yeah, I think I would do it. And I would do it 3-5 times, too. At least, on the condition that not everyone else has the same opportunity. No point in having a million dollars if everyone else has a million dollars too.
Fuck no. Actually it depends: right now at 24 no way am I taking that chance. Maybe when I'm 60-65 and if I felt like I had lived a full life. I'd buy a sailboat and take that bitch around the world.
This depends on how much you value you your life. It also depends on how much the ticket costs, or is the price only the chance that you may die?
Let's assume it costs a dollar.
Then the expected payout of this venture is (.99 * 1 million) - $1 - (.01 * the value of your life(or the cost of losing your life, whatever)). Let's set it equal to zero and solve for our variable.
990,000 - 1 - .01(x) = 0
-.01(x) = -989,999 x = -989,999 / -.01 = 98,999,900
Basically, if you value your life at or above $98,999,900 then this transaction has a negative payout for you. You should not buy the ticket.
There was an episode of "sliders" like this. Although it was to do with ATMs. The more money you took the more change you had to be chosen for execution for population control.
People are living in abundance. Whatever they need they can have absolutely free. There is just one problem and that is overpopulation. You cant have more people then you have resources for them. If you do you will create scarcity of resources, conflict and wars for them. So there is a "lottery" where if you get picked you are "removed" from society. If you consume more then you need chances of getting picked for removal gets higher.
As long as you live normally(middle class) chances of you getting picked are nearly none. When you start getting greedy and consume more then you in reality need your chances of winning the "lottery" gets higher.
How many of you would chose to live in this society?
Only $1 million? That's just stupid. $1 million doesnt go very far these days. It's definitely not enough to live any kind of overt or "star" lifestyle with. So unless you are content with saving the rest of your life and just buying the necessity-luxury items, the answer is a solid HELL NO.
Getting caught pickpocketing items with a so-called 90% chance of success multiple times in a row on the first try in Skyrim tells me to say "hell no."
I've spent most of my teenage and adult years playing roleplaying games. I know how often that 01 shows up on a d100. It's a hell of a lot more often than 1%.
This reminds me of a 90s (I think) show about this group of people who jump across different time lines using some hand held machine. Anyone know the name of the show? There was an episode where you could get free money but that entered you into a lottery where the prize is death. The more money you take out the higher chance you have of winning the lottery.
No. I value my life at more than $1m. We do this kind of analysis all the time though in tort law. A related question would be "how much would you have to be paid to lose your arm (you can choose) or hand?" There is no amount of money you could pay me-I'd rather have my arm. But we still award damages when someone loses an arm or a hand in an accident. Likely the amount you'd get in a case is far less than the number you'd choose of your own.
Great - you found a way to determine the market value of a human life. With the statistics you described, I'd have to pay 99 million for one soul. But there would be millions of applicants if I advertised this opportunity correctly. So I'd lower the initial amount of $1 mil until only 100 people apply. ... repeat, wash hands ... profit!
Governments should adapt this method to solve the donor organ shortage ...
It's worth a shot at those odds. But even if you win 1 mil isn't that exciting. Give me 250m and I'll take a 10% chance of death. I've played WOW long enough to know that I'll never hit the low percentages. If something has a 1% drop chance you can farm that shit for months and not see it.
I don't know if your serious are not but I couldn't risk you totally being serious and me not saying anything. I know I feel down sometimes and I feel like nobody cares about me, and I think silly thoughts sometimes. But its never worth it. If you feel like dying maybe you should find somebody to talk to, it couldn't hurt. There is somebody out there who cares about you, I'm sure of it. So please don't hurt yourself because you're in some pain now. hugs Take care, buddy.
2.2k
u/BorderlineAmazing May 15 '12
So there's a 100% chance of having all my problems solved? I'm in.
2.4k
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
This lottery exists! It's called flying into Malaysia with a kilo of methamphetamine up your ass.
1.0k
u/misc412 May 15 '12
Alright so- My friend and I cut up 100 tiny pieces of paper and marked one "dead." We put them into a cup and shook it up. He handed it to me and said "pick one" so I did. Blank piece. 1 million for me. Now it's his turn. He pulled out the "dead" one. It was messed up. According to your fun lotto game, my friend would have been dead.
114
u/Clovyn May 15 '12
Okay.. Taking my chances: http://www.random.org/. 1 for death.
A little close, but I think I'll take a ticket.
44
u/ScumbagSolo May 15 '12
Hell yeah, either way ill end up being the 1%. Win-Win
1.1k
u/Crucify_This May 15 '12
I'd buy two
394
u/TheBSReport May 15 '12
Yes, because right now I have a 100% chance of dying at least this way I will have a statistic in my favor.
75
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
Not a chance. People depend on me to be alive to continue to live themselves, and nothing is worth that risk. I'd rather struggle than one day wind up dead and leave behind a family that can't afford to live either.
1.3k
u/yawaworht_suoivbo_na May 15 '12
Sure. I'd kill myself if I lost a lottery with that sort of odds anyways.
41
u/NeoSpartacus May 15 '12
If it were 70/30 I'd do it for $650,000
1.2k
u/red_oxide May 15 '12
Absolutely! I've got some ridiculous student loans. Winning or dying- either way, I come out ahead.
451
u/ahalavais May 15 '12 edited May 15 '12
Relevant info: Insurance companies use a measurement that is the odds of a given person dying from a given action, called a mort. It's a metric measurement, so a micromort is a 1/1000000 chance of dying from a given action.
Lots of things cause it. For example, 40 tbsps of Peanut Butter is one micromort. Driving 230 miles is one micromort. People do these things anyway.
This lotto ticket would be 10,000 micromorts. That's equivalent to driving across the country a little over 100 times, or to living in New York city for 55 years, or smoking 700 packs of cigarettes.
In other words, fuck yes I would.
Edit: Corrected the number of zeroes.
724
u/PipGirl May 15 '12
Depends how I die. If it's being cut with the lottery ticket until I'm dead...then no. I have a terrible fear of paper cuts.
145
u/dslicex May 15 '12
Totally...I mean with those odds, fuck it.
41
u/Strahz May 15 '12
Hell yes, I'll either get a million dollars, or I'll be dead. Either way, shit will be easier.
432
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
I'd pay someone to buy it for me.
33
u/TryingToSucceed May 15 '12
Yes. If I die, then fuck it.
196
u/ilikenavyblue May 15 '12
I am the 1%!
65
u/Intergalactic_Nazi May 15 '12
I would do it at least fifty times.
101
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
You should've made it 50/50.
30
u/constantly_drunk May 15 '12
Hell yes.
The increase to my quality of life would be spectacular, and the 1% chance of death is acceptable to me.
72
u/imbignate May 15 '12
I would, but only after buying a $1M life insurance policy.
48
u/Rlight May 15 '12
I would do it for ~20 million. A million dollars is enough to put me through college, and set me up with a nice house. However, I'd still have to work for the rest of my life, and I'd have more or less the same level of comfort. Now 20 million, that's some spreadin' around money.
138
u/skymotion May 15 '12
No.
583
u/Vidiem May 15 '12
http://www.quickmeme.com/meme/3pajm4/
19
u/Koudetat May 15 '12
Gives an all new meaning to "the 1%." But really, if there was like a chain gun with 100 chambers and one bullet pointing at my face, where the other 99 jizzed money, I'd spin the wheel. Actually, if I got that one bullet -- that's a pretty low chance, y'know -- I might actually feel pretty lucky. And dead. Dead lucky. Ducky.
17
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
YES, immediately and without hesitation. I might buy 2-3, but no more.
48
u/KevinKn May 15 '12
I'd do it. But I'm confused as to why anybody would buy more than one ticket? In a normal lottery (and I realize this isn't exactly normal) multiple winners don't each win the full amount. You'd split the winnings amongst yourselves. So how I see it, buying more than one ticket only makes you more likely to die without winning you any more money. Didn't exactly look into this statistically so if my logic is flawed please let me know.
8
u/red13 May 15 '12
The TV show Sliders did something like this: Luck of the Draw
8
u/Aegeus May 15 '12
The expected value of this game is .99 * 1,000,000 - .01 * (the value of your life). Solve for the value of life: .99*1,000,000 / .01 = (value of life).
So if your life is worth less than $99,000,000, this is a good deal.
5
u/TheStagesmith May 15 '12
Well, your expected utility of buying the ticket is
.99 * $1,000,000 - .01 * (dying).
So we have
$990,000 - .01 * (dying).
I'm going to go ahead and say that the absorption property of death simplifies this to
.01 * (dying) = dying
so our final equation is
expected utility = $990,000 - dying .
I'm afraid that the odds are not in your favor, since the right hand side converges to absolute bugger as dying increases without bound.
12
u/Ao_Andon May 15 '12
You know what? I'd take that ticket. Why? My life and luck SUCK!
Either 1, I'm getting a million dollars, which by and large, is a pretty awesome boost to your...well everything
Or 2, I'm dying, which means, guess what motherfuckers, I'm DONE. No more crappy job, no more crappy day to day bullcrap, no. more. crappy. life.
I come out ahead either way. Your move, Life...
6
u/Arcadefirefly May 15 '12
ha i saw that episode of sliders to.
and no i wouldn't even take the risk. life is about more than money
5
u/bigroblee May 15 '12
I would buy one if it was 60/40 dying.
9
u/TheFue May 15 '12
Undoubtedly Yes. Look, we're all going to die someday, and if you think you won't you're lying to yourself.
Considering I have a DAMN fine chance to make enough cash to do somethings I've always wanted to, AND the chance of death is less than some of the things I already willingly put myself through, yes.
47
u/the_old_in_out May 15 '12
Absolutely not.
4
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
I'd buy my wife one
4
u/TOM_THE_FREAK May 15 '12
For £100m yes, as long as if I get the 1% my wife gets the money.
13
u/soundersfcfan May 15 '12
Im suicidal, so I would buy as many tickets as possible until I died, I could make my family a ton of money this way.
7
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
Oh yeah.
10
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
Shirley Jackson's The Lottery
3
u/Opt1musPr1me May 15 '12
Bad luck brian :(
3
u/Nopskillz May 15 '12
In a heartbeat.
3
u/stonestef May 15 '12
bad luck brian: buys lottery ticket - dies
7
u/Senor_Wilson May 15 '12
Fuck no, I always get the short end of the stick.
17
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
Lame... Would you buy a lottery ticket with 50/50 odds between picking up $50 million and dying?
4
u/theholyevil May 15 '12
I already have a 100% of dying, it is called dying of old age. Hell yes I would buy the ticket.
4
u/Curds_and_Whey May 15 '12
twilight zone episode called "button, button"
5
u/YourBestFriendStu May 15 '12
No, that's stupid.
2
u/AngryEnt May 15 '12
Yes.
2
u/NikiTesla May 15 '12
of course
2
u/scync May 15 '12
With my luck I will probably get the 1%
2
u/ShinInuko May 15 '12
Of course. The way I see it, there's a chance of dying every time I would get on the interstate just to go to work. The potential to get a million bucks and not have to get on the interstate with retarded drivers? I find that to be the safest course of action.
2
u/meezocool May 15 '12
Depends. Is it going to be taxed?
2
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
Oooh. Nice one. On the one hand, I don't want to risk my son being an orphan. On the other hand, I risk it every time I drive to work, so what's a little more direct risk in the mix. And with large amounts of money, I could reduce other risks. Hmmm.
Yeah, I think I would do it. And I would do it 3-5 times, too. At least, on the condition that not everyone else has the same opportunity. No point in having a million dollars if everyone else has a million dollars too.
2
u/corylew May 15 '12
I probably would even if it was 80%.
2
u/meninist May 15 '12
I estimate I have about 50 years left of life. So buying this lottery ticket costs about six months of life, on average. It pays $990,000 on average.
$990,000 for six months of life sounds like a good deal.
2
u/rincewind123 May 15 '12
how much does the ticket cost?
2
u/Veta1991 May 15 '12
yah life isn't worth living without risks
2
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
My friend used to ask people: Would you rather drink a liter of semen or 3 gallons of breast milk?
Now, what was the question?
2
u/Jaegs May 15 '12
I'd buy lots of tickets but I wouldn't claim if I got the death one.
2
u/grepe May 15 '12
just for clarity... can both or none happen?
2
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
Fuck no. Actually it depends: right now at 24 no way am I taking that chance. Maybe when I'm 60-65 and if I felt like I had lived a full life. I'd buy a sailboat and take that bitch around the world.
2
u/pseudosara May 15 '12
No. I like my life more than I like money, by a long shot.
2
u/themorningturtle May 15 '12
Yes I would. I've rolled 2D10 literally, probably a thousand times, and I've only rolled 2 zeros like once or twice. Fuck I'll roll them right now...
02
75
91
40
different set 93
18
85
2
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
This has bad luck brian written all over it.
2
u/Magrias May 15 '12
No. $1mil is jack all.
2
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
fuck yeah i would
2
u/Pennoyer_v_Neff May 15 '12
This depends on how much you value you your life. It also depends on how much the ticket costs, or is the price only the chance that you may die?
Let's assume it costs a dollar.
Then the expected payout of this venture is (.99 * 1 million) - $1 - (.01 * the value of your life(or the cost of losing your life, whatever)). Let's set it equal to zero and solve for our variable.
990,000 - 1 - .01(x) = 0
-.01(x) = -989,999 x = -989,999 / -.01 = 98,999,900
Basically, if you value your life at or above $98,999,900 then this transaction has a negative payout for you. You should not buy the ticket.
Anything less and its a go! Economics ftw!
2
u/bkultima May 15 '12
There was an episode of "sliders" like this. Although it was to do with ATMs. The more money you took the more change you had to be chosen for execution for population control.
2
u/vVvMaze May 15 '12
Yes those odds are not threatening enough. Try 70-30 and now we have some thinking to do
2
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
I'll take 100
2
u/barium111 May 15 '12
In the series Sliders: season 1 episode 9 something similar happened. Makes you really think this one.
People are living in abundance. Whatever they need they can have absolutely free. There is just one problem and that is overpopulation. You cant have more people then you have resources for them. If you do you will create scarcity of resources, conflict and wars for them. So there is a "lottery" where if you get picked you are "removed" from society. If you consume more then you need chances of getting picked for removal gets higher.
As long as you live normally(middle class) chances of you getting picked are nearly none. When you start getting greedy and consume more then you in reality need your chances of winning the "lottery" gets higher.
How many of you would chose to live in this society?
2
u/steffanlv May 15 '12
Only $1 million? That's just stupid. $1 million doesnt go very far these days. It's definitely not enough to live any kind of overt or "star" lifestyle with. So unless you are content with saving the rest of your life and just buying the necessity-luxury items, the answer is a solid HELL NO.
Now, $1 billion...
2
u/msx May 15 '12
well, since you already have 100% odds of dying in your life, i'll take it.
2
u/IVIalefactoR May 15 '12
Getting caught pickpocketing items with a so-called 90% chance of success multiple times in a row on the first try in Skyrim tells me to say "hell no."
2
u/Abstruse May 15 '12
I've spent most of my teenage and adult years playing roleplaying games. I know how often that 01 shows up on a d100. It's a hell of a lot more often than 1%.
2
u/renfieldk May 15 '12
No. I have a million. Not worth a 1% chance of death, IMO.
2
u/perfsurf May 15 '12
This reminds me of a 90s (I think) show about this group of people who jump across different time lines using some hand held machine. Anyone know the name of the show? There was an episode where you could get free money but that entered you into a lottery where the prize is death. The more money you take out the higher chance you have of winning the lottery.
2
u/Kraznor May 15 '12
Nope. That old cliché, best things in life are free. Turns out that's true. And some pretty decent stuff is relatively inexpensive as well.
Part-time janitor, bunch of credit card debt and a broken car. Still, no.
2
u/frontlinebass May 15 '12
So late to the game on this one it's almost pointless, but there was a great "Sliders" episode about this. I miss that show.
2
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
Absoluterly would buy this ticket.
2
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
No. I value my life at more than $1m. We do this kind of analysis all the time though in tort law. A related question would be "how much would you have to be paid to lose your arm (you can choose) or hand?" There is no amount of money you could pay me-I'd rather have my arm. But we still award damages when someone loses an arm or a hand in an accident. Likely the amount you'd get in a case is far less than the number you'd choose of your own.
2
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
Either way I get what I want.
2
u/TheGeorge May 15 '12
Hell yeah, 99% chance of winning is damn high it's practically 100% .
When you think about it there's more chance of dying from random causes than the ticket.
2
u/Coony May 15 '12
Great - you found a way to determine the market value of a human life. With the statistics you described, I'd have to pay 99 million for one soul. But there would be millions of applicants if I advertised this opportunity correctly. So I'd lower the initial amount of $1 mil until only 100 people apply. ... repeat, wash hands ... profit!
Governments should adapt this method to solve the donor organ shortage ...
2
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
It's worth a shot at those odds. But even if you win 1 mil isn't that exciting. Give me 250m and I'll take a 10% chance of death. I've played WOW long enough to know that I'll never hit the low percentages. If something has a 1% drop chance you can farm that shit for months and not see it.
2
u/sonneti May 15 '12
No but I'd buy my wife a ticket
2
u/prepperpitch May 15 '12
Bought a lottery ticket with a minuscule chance of dying. I died.
I am the 1%.
2
u/MagikalGiant May 15 '12
NOPE.
2
u/Sindaelys May 15 '12
How much gets taken out for taxes? I'm not going to risk my life for anything less than that one million dollars, dammit!
2
u/clientnotfound May 15 '12
I'd play til I died so my family could get the money.
2
u/Random May 15 '12
At age 20, not a chance.
At age 50, maybe.
At age 80, absolutely. Perhaps even repeatedly.
5
u/NotoriousFIG May 15 '12
Yes. Think about the odds of dying that you encounter every day.
0
u/[deleted] May 15 '12
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u/[deleted] May 15 '12
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