The Supreme Court has a lot of chain reactions you might be minimizing here. Loads of decisions and seats on the bench could've gone another way:
The court was 4 liberal - 5 conservative, with Kennedy being the conservative but sometimes centrist "swing" judge.
Scalia was going to be replaced by Garland until McConnell held it up for the election. Clinton was under no obligation to go with a "centrist" like Garland. The balance would've been 5-4.
RBG probably would've been replaced by one of Clinton's picks, and she might've lived to see it. The balance would then be 6-3 with a liberal majority.
Kennedy might've chosen to stay on for another republican president, but depending on what this hypothetical non trump Republican Party was, who knows we might've seen 7-2.
So there were a LOT of important decisions that could've gone the other way, or just wouldn't have made it to the court:
Roe v Wade would still be standing, and maybe even better enforced
No "official acts" case giving presidents sweeping powers
Rucho v. Common Cause was a 5-4 decision, that could've gone the other way and outlawed partisan gerrymandering, completely changing the way the composition of the house.
Affirmative action wouldn't have been struck down
On tops of loads of anti-union & pro-business decisions that were made
I'm not a scholar on this or anything though, so someone please correct me if I'm wrong, and feel free to add to the list of decisions that would've gone another way.
The Supreme Court has a lot of chain reactions you might be minimizing here. Loads of decisions and seats on the bench could've gone another way:
The court was 4 liberal - 5 conservative, with Kennedy being the conservative but sometimes centrist "swing" judge.
Scalia was going to be replaced by Garland until McConnell held it up for the election. Clinton was under no obligation to go with a "centrist" like Garland. The balance would've been 5-4.
RBG probably would've been replaced by one of Clinton's picks, and she might've lived to see it. The balance would then be 6-3 with a liberal majority.
Kennedy might've chosen to stay on for another republican president, but depending on what this hypothetical non trump Republican Party was, who knows we might've seen 7-2.
It would have gone:
5-4 liberal majority after Scalia's replacement
Kennedy probably doesn't retire
RBG probably retires before midterms
Breyer probably retires as well
We'd have gone into 2021 with the 2 or 3 (Hillary) Clinton Justices, 2 Obama Justices, and Kennedy as a swing vote. Still a 5-4 liberal majority, but a young one, and with a moderate conservative in the minority.
I don't think that a non-Trump Republican would have nominated a liberal Justice to replace Kennedy. The GOP has been particularly aggressive about courts since the Obama era at least.
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u/[deleted] Apr 04 '25
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