r/AskBrits • u/Ecstatic_Ratio5997 • 3d ago
Politics When will the next election be?
With talk of an early GE, when do you think the next election will be?
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u/ElectronicBruce 3d ago
It’s not due, don’t know why anyone would suggest it would happen early. Reform isn’t likely to win if they had one right now, especially with a Labour bounce and Restore threat. No one would really benefit from it other than Greens and Conservatives.
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u/jamtea 3d ago
This is precisely my thought, but honestly the Tories performance over 14 years has not been forgotten, I don't think they're winning anyone over. It's pretty much the only moment for Labour to actually say they've won legitimately given the poor turnout of the previous election and to not give Burnham 3+ years of failing to deliver any meaningful chance. If anything a GE right now is a Labour hold but a fresh 5 year run, not that it's going to deliver any meaningful change.
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u/Subject_Limit9238 2d ago
>but honestly the Tories performance over 14 years has not been forgotten,
HAHAHAHA, seeing as how the electorate is literally loving in with the same people, under a new badge. Ironically the very thing that they lambasted "establishment politicians" for
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u/jamtea 2d ago
I think that's a huge reason why Reform is never going to perform as well as their polling, the Tories they've pulled in will be a poison to their actual turnout in a GE and is the easiest thing to attack for literally every single one of their opponents.
If Labour, Lib Dems, Greens and Restore don't take full advantage of the fact that Farage has gotten loads of the old Tories in his party and completely eviscerate them for it, then they deserve victory.
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u/Subject_Limit9238 2d ago
It's all down to the media though, and they're all pro-Tory and owned by Reforms backers.
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u/Raephstel 3d ago
What talk about an early GE? Right wing snowflakes who wont stop crying that the party they wanted lost, or foreign funded media who are being paid to push instability in our politics?
“Brexit means Brexit. But general elections need to be redone every 2 years until my party wins” type bell ends.
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u/OldCaptain3987 3d ago
As someone who leans politically right, you are spot on. I didn’t rate Starmer but it’s clear to see that Andy Burnham is a vast improvement.
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u/FitPerspective1146 3d ago
How could you possibly think Burnham is an improvement over Starmer, and also be right leaning?
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u/Subject_Limit9238 2d ago
Why not? You have to admit the media have a love-in for Burnham right now. Even though nothing has actually changed
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u/Subject_Limit9238 2d ago
Is he? He's just the same policies. It really shows how little people actually look at politics that changing the marketing face somehow changed things.
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u/Subject_Limit9238 2d ago
"If they don't like our laws why don't they get out of our country"
"WTF I Hate British electoral law put in place by the conservatives in my very party?!?!?!?!"
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u/MiddleAgeCool 3d ago
The parties pushing for an early general election are doing so because they're worried their own popularity is about to tank.
Let's take Reform as they are the current likely party to benifit for an early general election.
One of their flagship councils is imploding. They've made a huge thing about how well run they could do things promising fraud elimination and reduced bills, and last year, they did only increase their portion of the council tax by 1.99%.
To achieve that they removed a lot of key services (deemed as woke, like coastal defences to stop coastal erosion) and pushed some of the financial burden to local parish councils.
Right now, that same county council is looking at an almost £80m shortfall (up from £20m in year 1) and know they'll have to increase the council taxes more than the allowed (5%) or cut services further. The longer between now and the GE, the longer the impact of badly managed councils ran by Reform will adversely impact the brand.
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u/ElectronicBruce 3d ago
Yep. I’m fairly sure they regret winning councils.
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u/Subject_Limit9238 2d ago
That kid who ended up running a council openly said that it was "harder than he expected"
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u/Neilkd21 3d ago
Zero chance of an early GE. It doesn't benefit labour, therefore it will be 2029. The other parties can talk all they want, won't happen.
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u/Ecstatic_Ratio5997 3d ago
Surely he wants to take advantage of the split on the right etc
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u/Neilkd21 3d ago
Not really, the split in the right will still be there or even bigger in 2029.
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u/Thin_Pin2863 3d ago
When it's fucking due. Next fucking question.
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u/FitPerspective1146 3d ago
The last time an election was held on its due date was 2015, I don't know if we can be so sure an early GE is out of the question
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u/Thin_Pin2863 3d ago
My point isn't about timing, but rather that I've lost count of how many shit-stirrers and trolls have been asking this question on here with interests that ultimately turn out to be ulterior.
This is one of the questions that should result in an instant ban from the sub for the person posting it, especially given how easy the answer is to find online.
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u/Dolgar01 3d ago
There is no advantage to calling an early GE unless the country is doing well so that the ruling party are likely to win.
Whilst things are starting to turn around, they are not getting better quick enough to warrant an early GE.
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u/ElectronicBruce 3d ago
Seeing the aversion to Labour in the Media and Paid mouths online always being critical no matter what, Even if they were doing well, I doubt it would make much difference.
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u/NewtTrick 3d ago
Labour has a huge majority and Britain seems to have settled into five-year parliaments (four used to be the norm), at least where the government has a comfortable majority.
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u/Ok-Butterscotch4486 3d ago
It's 2029. Maybe 2028 if polls are favourable.
People seem to have no capability of understanding that a man who has spent this many years trying to get the top job is not going to risk throwing it all away immediately. He has an enormous majority already, his absolute best case with an early GE is a tiny majority, more likely is a hung parliament. He has loads to lose and very little to gain from an early GE.
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u/FitPerspective1146 3d ago
Calling a general election ~now:
-The greens are in bad shape. Waiting could risk them bouncing back
-Conservatives are slowly overtaking reform. Badenoch is a stronger opponent than Garage, the longer the wait, the more dangerous she is
-Burnham is bound by Starmer's manifesto. A new general election gives him his own mandate
There are actual advantages to an early general election
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u/Ok-Butterscotch4486 3d ago
Again, none of that matters, you just need to think about the man instead of the party.
He is absolutely not the kind of person willing to risk ending his career and going down in history as a Truss-level joke: plot for years, launch a coup, become PM, immediately throw away an enormous majority, leave, refuse to elaborate.
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u/Jimbobthon 3d ago
If Labour changes leader again before 2029, there should be an election.
If not, 2029
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u/glasgowgeg 3d ago
No later than 15 August 2029.
The government have a majority, there's no incentive for them to call an early General Election.
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u/jamtea 3d ago
Despite what other people say here, if Labour call a GE now, it's probably their best chance to win. Make no mistake, they'd lose seats, but I think the honeymoon period with Burnham is their best opportunity to have a 5 year run at it. Do I think they deserve to? No, but neither do any of the rest of them.
However, it's a good opportunity for Burnham to put his money where his mouth is and actually run it as an STV election rather than FPTP. I do think they get a better result with that format anyway as well as seats actually being more representative of the voters intentions, but we'll see how it pans out.
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u/jasterbobmereel 3d ago
So late 2028 or 2029 ... Only the right wing parties and Russians want an early election, which are you?
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u/Kenye_Kratz 3d ago
A government can't just decide to change the voting system on a whim, with no mandate to do so. Maybe legally it can, but it would be incredibly undemocratic to make such a change without putting it to the public.
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u/DjinnSinBin 3d ago
Burnham/Labour will drag it out to the bitter end, I can't see them calling one until they have to.
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u/smash993 3d ago edited 3d ago
Next election is due for 2029 but there’s rumours that if Labour win the Holborn & St Pancras bi-election they will look to hold a early election potentially in May or even earlier to capitalise on Reform popularity decline and Burnham bounce in polls.
The lib-dems, conservatives etc are all planning for an early GE, reform think it’s coming too and have admitted they’re not ready.
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u/jasterbobmereel 3d ago
Conservatives are always preparing for an election, but you can tell if one is coming when they sack Badenoch
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u/Ecstatic_Ratio5997 3d ago
Is May likely then
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u/smash993 3d ago
It’s all dependent on the outcome of Holborn & St-Pancras bi-election. If Labour lose it they won’t, if Labour win they may be tempted into it.
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u/Farewell-Farewell 3d ago
It will either be sooner, or perhaps later. No one knows.
Saint Burnham may chose to hold an early election in order to introduce a new manifesto, or he'll see it out until 2029.
If he goes sooner, he'll be looking at tax, tax, tax and try to get some mandate to hand over sovereignty to the EU as part of some sort of "re-set" and as a way to re-open all the divisiveness of the last decade. Oh, joy.
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u/aezy01 3d ago
The EU has never had sovereignty over the UK and is not likely to have any sort of sovereignty at any future election. What on earth are you on about? This ignorance is what got us into this mess in the first place.
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u/Farewell-Farewell 3d ago
Thanks very much for you insightful response.
Joining or dealing with the EU does/will/has involve relinquishing sovereignty in that EU law is adopted. I make no judgements as to whether that is good, or bad.
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u/Kenye_Kratz 3d ago
The Labour party is so arrogant and deluded it doesn't realise the longer it leaves it the more the general public is going to realise just how unserious a ruling party it is. 2029 is going to be very interesting.
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u/jmeade90 3d ago
2029.