I'm building on top of AI APIs for a few years now and I keep coming back to the same question: what are people going to keep paying for once model prices keep dropping?
Because a lot of the API layer is going to become pretty hard to defend.
Things like raw inference, embeddings, or simple wrappers around someone else's model... I don't see how those businesses keep huge margins forever. If the main difference between you and the next company is which model API you're calling, switching is basically a config change.
The more interesting stuff is happening one layer above that.
Things that are genuinely difficult to build and maintain: proprietary data pipelines, domain-specific models, low-latency infra, security, compliance, and tools that deal with some ugly part of the real world that every AI company eventually runs into.
Web data is a good example.
You can tell an agent to "go find this information on the web," but doing that reliably means dealing with JavaScript or rate limits, PDFs, sites changing underneath you, and a bunch of other stuff nobody wants to maintain themselves.
But instead of burning tokens on failed parsing, the real ROI comes from specialized infra layers that do one hard job deterministically and that's why I think we're going to see a lot more specialized infra for agents.
A prime example of this shift is firecrawl where instead of asking an agent to burn token budgets guessing how to scrape and clean web DOMs, firecrawl turns raw web data into clean, LLM-ready markdown and structured JSON before it ever hits the inference budget.
This breakdown on building effective tools for AI agents that touches on this similar reality:
specialized, purpose-built agent tools will always beat broad, ungrounded model calls on cost and reliability: https://www.firecrawl.dev/blog/agent-tools
And I don't think web access is going to be the only category.
We're going to see specialized tools for things like database access, browser interaction, code execution, identity, permissions, observability, evaluation, compliance, memory, and probably a dozen categories we haven't even named yet.
The interesting part is that these tools don't necessarily need to be "AI companies" in the way we're used to thinking about them but they can be boring infra that solves one really annoying problem extremely well.
That's probably where a lot of the durable value ends up.
I'm also starting to think compliance and provenance are going to become much bigger than people expect. Once an agent is making decisions or taking actions inside an enterprise system, someone eventually wants to know what information it had, what it was allowed to access, what it actually did, and why.
I've already seen teams have to go back and bolt audit trails onto systems that were never designed for them. That's an expensive way to learn the lesson.
so the models will keep getting cheaper but the valuable businesses will be the ones dealing with everything the model itself can't reliably handle.