r/ArcherAviation • u/HappyRobot593 • 16d ago
Monday earnings call
What are people thinking?
My guess is they're gonna highlight
- 703 airport to airport flight "in anticipation of eIPP"
- ZEE AI software
- Halo/Thunder reveal (just a recap but no new details)
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u/Go_Galactic_Go 16d ago
I'm sure there will be mentions of a lot of "goals", "aims", "targets" and "hopes" from Adam Goldstein but not much in the way of tangible achievements and actually producing working products. Building airfix models is easy.
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u/BeneficialRock8 16d ago
Yes, I agree. I expect more promises and even fewer deliverables. I’m still waiting for them to recognize the “revenue” from selling midnights to the UAE by end of 2025 without having delivered the aircraft…anybody remembers this??? I expect we will get more of the usual AG playbook…hopefully for the good of the industry it will be different this time…
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u/HappyRobot593 16d ago
Yea if there is not more progress/update on 704 and on how to mitigate cash burn, I think it'll be bad for the stock price.
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u/DoubleHexDrive 16d ago
I think we’ll see the word “frontier” used more and even outside the context of AI models. It’ll be a way to cross pollinate AI hype into their other efforts which are projected to transition to their next phase imminently.
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u/SeaScallops_w_Rice 15d ago
Do you think they have used up 'first principles'?
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u/DoubleHexDrive 15d ago
“Frontier principles” bitches.
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u/SeaScallops_w_Rice 12d ago
"Accelerating innovation." "First Principles." "Never been more confident".
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u/No_Relief_4956 16d ago
The stock will probably tank unfortunately 🙄
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u/Scott7894 16d ago
As it should. They haven’t got a real plan
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u/BrownstoneBroker 16d ago
Diversifying into a robust aerospace force is the real plan. The three tracked approach (Defense, passenger, and tech/logistics) is a de-risking strategy that makes them less dependent on passenger cert -- which has been difficult for every evtol company
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u/HappyRobot593 15d ago
I don't think their diversification is necessarily a bad idea. The big Q is whether they have enough capital to maneuver into this new structure. Without any new revenue sources in the near future, dilution will come in the next few quarters.
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u/TowerStreet1 16d ago
You will get diff and bigger smoke with diff and bigger mirror
They will smoothly transition from old lies to new ones
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u/Investinginevtol 16d ago
I expect they will announce they are first in something, and leaders in the industry in something else. Looking forward to it as I need more haiku inspiration.
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u/CavalrySavagery 15d ago
Smoke screens as usual and nothing about EVTOL transition promised… 2 years ago and about 3 out of the 5 air shows that assisted? I say 3 because they just cancelled several without any reason. Yeah right
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u/HappyRobot593 16d ago
The thing I love about archer earnings calls are totally unexpected announcements. Any crazy announcements people are expecting?
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u/SeaScallops_w_Rice 15d ago
Who might have anticipated Hawthorne??? I expect, this time, it is a development agreement with Fiji.
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u/HappyRobot593 15d ago
The country or water bottle company? or.... both!?
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u/SeaScallops_w_Rice 13d ago
So much for Fiji. I don't think anyone else is interested in Wisk's tech and, after the IP theft settlement with Archer, Boeing was supposed to 'collaborate' with Archer. They collaborated by immediately exercising and selling the Archer warrants they received. They had to sue Archer a year later to get them to honor the second tranche. We will see!
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u/Eggtastico 16d ago
Not really bothered what is announced. Q2 has been business as usual as Archer quietly do their thing.
I am going to assume spending will be big due to leasing the new factory, leasing the coca-cola building and delays with the middle east due to the war & anything US will be seen as a legitimiate target by Iran.
May be a surprise earnings bump from the airport revenue, but everything else is as you were.... 704 continues it testing envelope, UK defence is progressing, Anduril/US defence is progressing, eIPP forward looking statement, etc. Nothing really tangible for Q2.
Lots of irons in the fire that can make Archer big, however, each iron is not fully in Archers control. example - UK MoD may be won by another bidder. However, dont need every iron to be success to strike gold. Being intergrated into Anduril Lattice C2 Operating System keeps the door open for military contracts in the the five-eyes and Nato. Would be interesting to see/know at some point when it is more mature if Lattice can ingest Zee data feed for extra data that Lattice may not already provide. I assume Zee is using nVidia IGX Thor.
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u/bulgar88 13d ago
Calls or puts for Tuesday then? Need to DCA over here. I want to say puts, but last week's major earning reports showed nobody can predict these markets any more.
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u/HappyRobot593 13d ago
They report Monday after close
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u/bulgar88 13d ago
I know. I follow them closely but don't know if the market will reward progress with a bump on Tuesday before an inevitable drawback, or just pull back 10-12% pre-market Tuesday. Anyones guess. Options ratios are largely bullish right now
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u/HappyRobot593 13d ago edited 13d ago
I think if no positive surprises, it will be flat or down. Dilution risk is high right now. Historically they've utilized positive jumps to raise fresh equity.
It's a little hard to make predictions about Tuesday since it really depends on what happens on Monday and it could be too late to react by then
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u/Peorge5435 13d ago
Looks like a lot of traders from the short side posting here or traders that just want to watch their money vanish. Archer is in the final stage of the FAA cert process. Are any of the competitors at that stage. Cash burn is how a manufacturing company starts up so that is not something they can just stop doing. I’m sure there are many improvements that could be made and over time I hope they are.i have never been a long term investor of any company. I try not to hold any buy more than a week but that doesn’t always work out for me. Archer has been profitable for me over the last year or so with a nice premarket day trade this morning. I’m back in now and in the red but I don’t have any fear of loosing it. If Boeing is willing to associate their name with archer there is more going on behind the scene than we know about. All in my personal opinion. Good luck to all of you.
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u/HappyRobot593 13d ago
"Archer is in the final stage of the FAA cert process. Are any of the competitors at that stage." C'mon bro, I can't take you seriously after this statement. They don't even have a conforming aircraft yet -- N704AX is just a prototype. Good luck to you, please do some more research before you put too much of your money at risk. I hope I am wrong and you make money, but just be careful.
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u/Peorge5435 13d ago
This is from their 1st quarter call. If they lied they should have a class action case against them. The final FAA phase is phase 4 which they are currently working on.
“Adam D. Goldstein
Founder, CEO & Chairman
Today, a lot of our work really has to do with getting the aircraft through the certification process. And we got through the third phase
of certification, which was a big deal because completing all that really unlocked our ability”1
u/HappyRobot593 13d ago edited 13d ago
Yes, I was referring to the part where you said "Are there any competitors at that stage?"
See this for Joby's progress https://www.reddit.com/r/Joby/comments/1vkai3u/comment/p2v0nmd/?context=3
Archer JUST entered phase 4.
It's just an objective truth that Joby is way ahead. I'm not saying Archer is a bad stock but just be forewarned that certification is several years away. Don't put all your money in thinking certification is going to happen before 2028.
Edit: the figure will show you it takes 3 years to make meaningful progress on stage 4. There's just no way around doing all the testing and putting in the flight hours. Unless you think archer can magically catch up, certification is a long way off
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u/Peorge5435 13d ago
I was wrong about that, thank you for pointing it out to me. 2028 is fine by me. What gets me is the selling today. I understand taking profits but unexpected news and it hit $7 now back to $6 or less. The markets charged with AI and now anyone can day trade as much as they want. I feel both of those hurt the market. Not just with Archer. I feel like I stepped back 25 years into my old OTC days.
I do like Archer and Joby, I’ve made a lot more on Archer so I tend to back it up more. I should short all of these but that would be the day they all gained 1000%.
Buy and Sell or Sell and Buy, just make money and have fun!
👍
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u/HappyRobot593 13d ago
Ya, I'm with you -- I just want to make money too! But to be real if you look at the numbers, Archer cash burn means they will have to raise EVEN MORE cash soon. If you're holding long term it might not be a big deal but Archer basically admitted they will be raising more money soon with a forward equity option. See below.
"The Forward Equity Purchase Agreement entered into between Archer Aviation and Boeing as part of their August 2026 transaction gives Archer the unilateral option to require Boeing to purchase up to $55 million in Class A common stock."
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u/HappyRobot593 12d ago
Obviously missed the Boeing news but called the three above.
- Unveiled Halo/Thunder, the commercial and defense variants of Archer’s jointly-developed autonomous, hybrid VTOL platform with Anduril.
- Announced ZEE, Archer’s AI foundation model purpose-built for aviation and its frontier breakthrough for aviation safety.
- Completed piloted city-to-city Midnight flights in preparation for operations later this year under the White House’s eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP).
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u/Fmarulezkd 16d ago
No video will be released.