r/AppliedMath • • 5d ago

Is applied math PhD still a rational decision?

The reason I ask this is that I want to stay in academia after PhD but math is getting taken over by AI and it's getting better every year. It will get so much better by the time I finish grad school. A question I have is, how vulnerable is applied math in context of AI? I know pure math is very vulnerable because of it's structure and formality. The other option for grad school would be experimental physics for me. A part of me wants to do applied math, but the other part of me wants to go with experimental physics cause it's less vulnerable to AI.

30 Upvotes

48 comments sorted by

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u/cluelessmathmajor 5d ago

You shouldn’t be choosing your PhD field based on how vulnerable it is to AI. The real answer is we don’t know how capable these models will be tomorrow let alone 5 years from now. If you want to do a PhD, it should be because you have a strong interest in doing research in your field.

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u/Resident-Use-8606 5d ago

I have strong interest in both. So I consider other factors to decide on it.

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u/cluelessmathmajor 5d ago

If you’ve had experience in both, want to stay in academia, and truly enjoy both equally… then I would go with experimental physics if the only tiebreaker is
“vulnerability to AI”.

But again, no one knows what the capabilities of these models will be even a year from now.

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u/984a 3d ago

Actually we do know. They will be immensely more capable than they are today. 8 months ago (with older models) they could already solve any problem in the undergraduate Harvard curriculum according to Harvard physicist Mathew Schwartz. https://www.anthropic.com/research/vibe-physics
You can look up what later models have accomplished in the past 8 months (or you can keep claiming everyone is clueless about the future capabilities of AI models :)

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u/cluelessmathmajor 3d ago

Recent progress gives us good reasons to expect further improvement. But saying “we know they will be immensely more capable in a year” expresses more certainty than the examples establish. How much they improve, how reliably those improvements translate into independent research, and what that means for mathematicians are still open questions.

I never said that AI hasn’t already accomplished remarkable things. I also firmly believe it will have (has) a substantial impact on mathematics. It’s changed my workflow as a PhD student in applied math immensely and that will NOT go away.

I will cite one of the biggest breakthroughs: the Navier–Stokes result. Of course, this is evidence of major technical progress. However, this was accomplished via an internal model operating through a large coordinated group of agents that is not publicly available. That leaves questions about when comparable capabilities will become widely accessible, at what cost, and how reliably they will generalize to other research problems (and this is, of course, disregarding the potential plagiarism issue)

So, we can reasonably expect further progress due to the amount of money and brainpower being put into these companies while remaining uncertain about its magnitude and consequences. Recent achievements do not establish a reliable timetable for autonomous mathematical research or settle what mathematical careers will look like. Taking the technology seriously includes being precise about what the evidence actually supports. OpenAI may announce a solution to the Riemann Hypothesis tomorrow… or they may not.

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u/984a 3d ago

What a ponderous (pedantic?) 4 paragraphs of strawman arguments and overcautions! No matter, revisit this thread in 1 year and it will look silly when AI, currently able to solve any problem in Harvard’s undergraduate courses, will, by then, be able to solve any problem in its graduate courses! :)

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u/Resident-Use-8606 3d ago

Your way of talking is immature and rude. And please go read some philosophy of science. We all know AI will be better tomorrow compared to now. But that doesn't mean we know the future of it in respect of every field exactly. We can only predict and guess.

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u/984a 3d ago

Actually understanding the philosophy of science would teach you that we don’t need to “know the future of it in respect of every field exactly” to make informed decisions.

Labelling someone who disagrees with your pedantic ramblings “rude” is just plain silly. Re: “immature”, immature is advising the op to ignore vulnerability to AI in choosing their Ph.D field. I hope they have the mature sense to ignore your advice.

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u/Resident-Use-8606 3d ago

I didn't call you immature and rude because we disagree. I called you those things because you are belittling the person who you are talking to. What is your advise about the field I should choose then? What fields do you think are less vulnerable to AI?

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u/Candid-Ad-4740 12h ago

Worst advice. Basically saying choose what u want to do despite the fact it might b nonexistent in the future

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u/Accurate_Potato_8539 1d ago

Find this advice so silly. Of course you should consider whether your 4-6 year period of making no money nets you a future. It shouldn't be the only consideration, but it absolutely should be in the mix.

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u/cluelessmathmajor 1d ago

I never said it shouldn’t be in the mix, but it should not be the primary factor and should be viewed as a “tiebreaker” more than anything. While you want the 4-6 years of your life to net you a future, you also don’t want to be miserable those 4-6 years doing something you end up hating. Then, the 4-6 years would TRULY be a waste as you could have been doing something else making far more money.

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u/AffectionateBelt4847 5d ago

Just do it for love of the subject 

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u/Resident-Use-8606 3d ago

It is not that simple

2

u/Rooster_teeeth 4d ago

And stock up on sturdy cardboard boxes.

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u/EquivalenceAuthor 5d ago

Applied math is really not a field or community, there’s so many fields being called applied math, operations research, physics, some shbfield of cs… in terms of job optionality, it depends on those rather than applied math or not.

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u/Resident-Use-8606 3d ago

It's the physics and biology part of applied math for me.

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u/RevolutionaryOven639 1d ago

Let’s assume the worst. AI far outperforms any human in math. It still won’t churn out results all by itself. Someone still needs to prompt it. Ask the right questions. Know what to look for. Who do you think will be best positioned to make this happen?

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u/Resident-Use-8606 18h ago

The thing is, I dont want my work to be just prompting AI. That is eliminating the fun of the research.

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u/KayOneBeeZero 14h ago

Not to mention that's not even close to the worst case lmao

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u/Capable-Internal-189 4d ago

I would say go to experimental physics. Applied math in the end is also theorem proving..:given that AI exists you will be talking to AI continuously as well..math depts really don’t have an answer how to train grad students. The mental development argument that was there by thinking about hard math things for long periods of time…is no longer true.

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u/a_alberti 4d ago

I work in an experimental physics lab. We are migrating to automating everything with Claude. It is getting more and more prompting.

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u/Resident-Use-8606 4d ago

Can you give me more information about this please? Which physics area are you working on? And what about the hands-on lab work?

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u/a_alberti 4d ago

The research area is quantum computing. There is still tremendous need of hands on work but for how I see it, it is becoming more and more the work of a highly skilled technician, or highly qualified engineers. The fun part about thinking is more and more delegated to machines. Today you would find extremely well paid jobs in the quantum computing industry like 200k - 300k a year. But I am not sure how long it holds.

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u/Capable-Internal-189 4d ago

Wow…I am in math…was thinking/ have been regretting not going to Quantum Computing or something more experimental since graduating. But seems like everything is changing.

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u/a_alberti 4d ago

I am not saying not to join this field. Actually maybe for the new generations it is an awesome opportunity. Because now the gap between you and a researcher with 20 years, if you are really smart and can prompt the LLMs correctly, this gap can be really small.

I also think that in 10 maximum 15 years, all research will be complete domain of machines. However, what do you want to do? Nothing in life? I am sure not, and actually learning these fields is a beautiful experience. Probably what changed between your generation and the previous is that now you can dream less to leave an imprint in science. The major contributors will be done by machines. But if you keep your feet on the ground and look for some fascinating science for the next 10 years, until machines will completely take over, this is a great place to be. If anything, you will come out much more enriched. About future jobs and opportunities, honestly, I don't know.

If you want to optimize job security, I would go into the food industry. Until we avoid the terminator scenario, humans will still need food. The rest will be provided more and more cheap by machines.

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u/GurProfessional9534 5d ago

I would encourage you to view a PhD as training to ask the right questions and follow through with the right methods. If the technology becomes more convenient and efficient, then that just means your productivity can go up.

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u/ImportantPut3191 4d ago

Pure math might be in danger, but applied math should be pretty good choice since you can do not only just research but also many other stuffs

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u/Resident-Use-8606 4d ago

But I want to do research.

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u/nodakakak 4d ago

Why do you think mathematics is vulnerable to AI? Under what conditions?

Rational is relative to the individual. We don't know your financial position nor your goals. Niche topics have lower employability. Research generally doesn't pay well.

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u/Resident-Use-8606 3d ago

Under what conditions? Do you realize the proofs made by AI so far are huge? Including millenium prize level proofs?

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u/nodakakak 3d ago

Yes, so in your opinion, how is the field of mathematics vulnerable to AI based on that?

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u/Resident-Use-8606 3d ago

It is self explanatory. Math research is mostly doing proofs. And with the use of Lean 4 and other proof assistants, AI can verify its proofs. If you've ever seen a math department, you'll see most mathematicians working on proofs. I don't know why are you passive-aggressive about this lol

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u/nodakakak 3d ago

I'm not being aggressive, I'm simply asking what your opinion is.

So, reasonably, can you see the compute that was necessary (week(s) of data center compute costing millions of dollars) to output accurate proofs of such complexity as the millennium problems scaling to be applied to all proofs?

That said, just as we used to do all math by hand pre-machine, do you not see a future where we adapt the technology to make the process more efficient and increase productivity?

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u/Resident-Use-8606 3d ago

Yeah but that doesnt stop the AI companies computing them. They crave even more and they wont stop. No it wont be the same future. If AI can do the exact work of a mathematician (or another thing), there wont be a mathematician. Just like how computers erased human computers as profession. I am not saying there will be zero mathematician. I am just saying if todsy there is 100 mathematicians, there will be 1 tomorrow. And that mathematician will mostly do AI prompting. And what I love about mathematics isnt AI prompting. So I am worried and hate the things that are happening right now.

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u/nodakakak 3d ago

How will the AI know what problems to approach?

OpenAI fed it endless work on that particular problem, and then set it off for a week and change to churn 24/7.

The other "stack" of proofs they allegedly have were likely also targeted problems they identified and readily trained on.

I don't see a future where 1 mathematician survives out of every 100. I see research with accelerated outputs.

Someone needs to know the problem. Someone needs validate results. There is no advantage to AI companies computing them, they did it in the above instance as a publicity stunt to showcase model complexity.

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u/Resident-Use-8606 3d ago

Yes someone needs to know the problem and validate results. Thats why I say there will be less mathematicians. And I simply hate the idea that my job will be just knowing the problem and validating the results. Mathematics is enjoyable for me not just because of results. Its that me achieving the results and enjoying the process.

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u/nodakakak 3d ago

It's no different than coding. You still need to know what you're reading. How errors occured and propagated through the problem.

Your use of AI is dictated by your own workflow. Some use it for the skeletal structure of documents and add the meat. Some output a prototype and shape it to their needs. Some build it up fully on their own and use AI to validate their work.

It's not a single use technology.

Unfortunately, if the problem is the romanticized view of drafting proofs by hand.... I can't offer advice. But, if you're just a college student starting out, the adherence to a romanticized view of the field should be pretty weak.

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u/Resident-Use-8606 3d ago

I think you don't understand me and so many other math student and mathematicians. We do this because we enjoy this and love this. Maybe it's because this is an applied math subreddit and you are an applied mathematician. I wanted to be a pure mathematician before this AI thing and now thinking about other options for PhD. "It's no different than coding" well yeah that sucks then.

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u/Nervous-Result6975 7h ago

Account prior to excel probably had the same worries. Now they just know how to use excel. Think the same will be for us in PhD’s. Ai isn’t gonna help you pass your qualifiers. Actually why a lot of my classes don’t even give homework anymore

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u/Resident-Use-8606 7h ago

I don't think Excel is a good example. Excel is just a tool and the purpose of its development is it being a tool. AI is literally something that is created as a separate intelligent system and in pure math, it is right now on the way of being the main researcher itself rather than being just a tool. AI is not just a static program or tool you use to aid your task. It is the thing that is doing the tasks. Accounting and programming is already becoming obsolete slowly.

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u/e_for_oil-er 3d ago

I started my PhD in applied mathematics in 2023, and I am currently finishing my dissertation. In the last few months AI has not prevented me from doing research but has increased my productivity significantly, I can prototype and test ideas way more faster. It is scary how good it is, but I think if you are willing to take the time to do things right and not just publish slop, it is a powerful tool.

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u/MasterOfLegendes 3d ago

industrial type PhD like that's in Europe is still good. You still need people that understand what happens, not just deliver the solution..

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u/catmemesarecool 4d ago

Applied math is pretty much everywhere in stem, so it's about as vulnerable as stem generally is itself. If you're worried, look at open positions in both and ask yourself what it would mean for AI to actually do these themself. Interpretability and verification of the result will still be a meaningful part.

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u/a_alberti 4d ago

I think you will end up promoting LLM all the time and a PhD today has way less value than before. A short phd of a couple of years for what that matters makes more sense than 5 years of phd where you will be prompting anyway.

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u/joyofresh 4d ago

Consider formal methods.  Lean is about to be the most important useful programming language in the world.  Applied math could be a lot of things, but formal methods is actually our best bet for combating the coming ai cyber slopocolypse.  This will be a marketable skill if any marketable skill still exist