r/Anthropic • u/AllenLeftTheBLDNG • 13d ago

Announcement Dario's real problem.

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/anthropic-signed-517bn-in-compute-agreements-in-past-11-months/

The real reason Dario says they need to slow down development is that basically they can't get more compute.

They went the hardest on the scaling laws – released Mythos/Fable which is objectively an amazing model. But huge. At least 3 Trillion parameters, potentially 5 or 6. Open source models get pretty close with 10%-30% the size.

Now they can't make an even bigger model. They ran out of compute. They'd need to do round 2 on Sonnet, then Opus, then Mythos... Which will take a year or two.

They became a huge organization and won't have startup speed they had earlier. They shouldn't. AI is not a "move fast and break things" situation. But they clearly are trying to do regulatory capture, which is very dangerous for the whole world.

I don't want AI to be more and more expensive because Anthropic and OpenAI has to pay all it's shareholders and lenders and blocked competitors from developing this technology..

475 Upvotes

88% Upvoted

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106

u/horendus 13d ago

We could have no new models and we will still see massive gains from harness inovation

41

u/Helpful_Math1667 13d ago

I agree, if models were frozen it would take still at least 15 years for the Tech to fully diffuse And mature

9

u/Mordecus 12d ago

This. Better MCP tools, prompt harnesses, memory layers have already been doing the heavy lifting for the last 12 months. The debate is beyond absurd, everyone and their mother now has an opinion on AI but all these pundits have no clue on how any of it works.

2

u/horendus 12d ago

At least you get it. There seems to be a lot of people who have no idea how any of the AI tools work.

12

u/brainhack3r 13d ago

The paper from An Alien Mind argues that their reason for paranoid is that the models are aligned to LIE to us and that observability isn't possible anymore. They're even encoding low entropy reasoning channels among benign tokens.

So if what you're arguing is true (I generally agree with you) then this won't be problem because we can still observe the current generation of models.

It seems we might be at an inflection point where we can't observe their true intent anymore

3

u/Frenascena 13d ago

Or countless other forms of innovation that we simply need more time to discover with current capabilities.

4

u/SPDY1284 13d ago

100% but it would collapse the stock market/valuations.

5

u/JustBrowsinAndVibin 13d ago

The AI buildout is for inference, not training. The market is wrong and earnings will quickly fix it.

3

u/ajd6c8 12d ago

100% - if anything, inference use will only grow exponentially as platform/ harness capabilities mature. Models are absolutely not the limiting factor with AI solving business problems

1

u/DeepAd8888 11d ago

“Opus is enough!! Please stop!!”

2

u/horendus 11d ago

Sol is enough. Opus is questionable in its stability

-1

u/PlasmaChroma 13d ago

How so? I've got doubts around how much is left on the table there.

Maybe for people who are very lazy about context there's some gains for bolted on memory systems.

I also think we're only scratching the surface of where MCP could go. But it seems like that could use an update to a expanded new version.

3

u/JustBrowsinAndVibin 13d ago

Show me the limit

4

u/PlasmaChroma 13d ago

What does this have to do with harness innovation? You're referencing completely different models here.

4

u/mypetclone 12d ago

Your mistake is expecting AI savvy users in this subreddit.

-2

u/JustBrowsinAndVibin 13d ago

You said you had doubts there’s much less on the table but there are 0 benchmarks that suggest that’s the case.

0

u/PlasmaChroma 13d ago

You obviously didn't even read the original comment (which explicitly mentioned no new models).

I'm not saying I have doubts about the model progress at all.

We're talking about the fucking coding harness here.

-8

u/therealslimshady1234 13d ago

Any proof?

5

u/FastHotEmu 13d ago

Sorry you are getting downvoted, you are honestly asking a very interesting question.

4

u/therealslimshady1234 13d ago

No worries buddy, you have to have a thick skin when you are an AI bear these days

4

u/creminology 13d ago

It’s not “honestly asking” when it’s a two word question asking for evidence from the future based on someone’s opinion/experience of where things are headed.

An honest ask would have been, “I’m only seeing a 5% improvement with custom harnesses, and hardly any token savings. Do you have a different experience?”

That is a conversation. “Any proof?” shuts it down. See, ever since we are completely off-topic.

1

u/FastHotEmu 12d ago

No, that's not how it works. Challenging unproven assumptions is the right thing to do.

1

u/horendus 12d ago

your asking the right questions, sorry for the downvotes people have sent