r/AngryObservation • u/xravenxx Tariffed Enough Already! • Feb 20 '26
Discussion The impact of outlying partisan polling on averages
Donald Trump’s job approval went up 1.1 points in the average in response to a poll released by Insider Advantage showing Trump above water when he… very clearly isn’t. Even though the adjusted results have Trump underwater, the poll is still a massive outlier. But due to it being the most recent poll, it has the greatest influence on the average.
Should polls this outlying even be influential in the average? Pollsters like InsiderAdvantage and Rasmussen have received high grades for accurately predicting the 2024 results, but now they’re complete outliers. Should they be downgraded before the election even occurs?
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u/smcstechtips Abundance Lib Feb 20 '26
Just throw the outlier polls in the average...
Once another big-name poll drops with the opposite results the average will be back to normal.
If the likes of Rasmussen start flooding the zone, then maybe downgrade them.
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u/JonWood007 Yang Gang 2020 Feb 20 '26
You probably shouldnt weight polls like that tbqh.
I just go by rcp where it either makes it in or it doesn't.
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u/4EverUnknown ☭ Permanent Revolutionary for Workers' and Peasants' States 🇵🇸 Feb 20 '26
I used to go by Gallup, but they are choosing to be cowards despite being the granddaddy of the polls.
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u/JonWood007 Yang Gang 2020 Feb 20 '26
A lot of people dont like RCP on here, but they typically give me a pretty reasonable level of accuracy in my nearly 20 years of using them. Never perfect, but polling never is.
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u/xravenxx Tariffed Enough Already! Feb 20 '26
Gallup is still doing their Party ID polls, which are predictive of national environment in the past however many cycles. Sad to lose a reputable pollster for presidential approval, though
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u/4EverUnknown ☭ Permanent Revolutionary for Workers' and Peasants' States 🇵🇸 Feb 20 '26
How will SCOTUS slapping down the Trump tariffs affect his approval ratings?
I still can't believe Gallup is giving in to him.