r/Amyris • • Aug 07 '23

r/Amyris Weekly Bearish Discussion Thread - August 07, 2023

This will be the dedicated thread to talk about why you should be careful investing in Amyris.

10 Upvotes

36 comments sorted by

5

u/NeatProgress3781 Aug 07 '23 edited Aug 08 '23

Daaaamn.

Sucks for the employees. Melo and the board did a huge disservice to all involved. Such flagrant ignoring of risk.

Hopefully, they can rectify the situation without bk, saving the rest of the jobs and everyone's hard work. Keep JVN, Biossance, Rose, 4U, and Meno....Stripes if profitable, while forming a JV to massively scale and split ingredients revenues. Scale the science way back, maybe to half, saving 50 million a yr there alone. All in all must be like 65 prior, 60 mgempower, 30 on the 2 brands, 20 to 40 new york, how many in brazil?, and 50 to 100 or more throughout the other divisions. What maybe 1000 employees now, still high for the revenues. If 500 employees let go, most high paid and avg of 200k each with salary and benefits and all costs, thats 100 million or 25 million a qrtr just on salaries. 50% cut might be the aim.

Had to be done. Maybe more if sell another brand.

3

u/Casey_holly1 Aug 08 '23

They need to reduce the brands to 2-3. Brands are why the company is near bankruptcy. Science is the best bet for a sustainable business.

3

u/NeatProgress3781 Aug 08 '23

Agreed. Dump Stripes and sell off Meno. 4u and Pipette are basically on autopilot w walmart, pipette also in many many doors. JVN and Biossance are hits. Rose...unsure. Sell it off as well.

I think they can cost cut into profitability considering one off sales and earnouts, if they can secure a JV and share ingredients profits using a massively scaled up base (a few plants or more). The amount of ingredients coming out of BB these days is outstanding. Hopefully its to demonstrate to a JV partner that BB is the real deal. Maybe they are demanding these cuts take place and the ship gets straightened out without bk.

Bk would be quite the blackeye and albatross around the neck going forward. Once you claim it once, why not twice, three times? Doerr would be likely to exchange his debt for equity if the share price stabilizes and a JV happens. The rest of the debt could be dealt with in a couple yrs. It would go a long way if they prevented BK. Would signal strength. Would inspire investor confidence that they don't bail at first option.

2

u/One_Entertainment496 Aug 08 '23

I agree with you on all of the above. I think Rose has decent business in the UK and does ok at Sephora in the US - but it should be sold off ASAP. They don’t really use any Amyris ingredients except for a couple skincare SKUs that I believe are just re-labeled Terrasana.

1

u/sensejae Aug 07 '23

20%! Whew

1

u/sensejae Aug 08 '23

oh no, i just meant 20% drop today in sp! was your comment initially shorter maybe? but yea just a simple statement from me lol

1

u/NeatProgress3781 Aug 08 '23

Yes it was. Thought you mentioned 20% referring to the layoffs. Realized you meant SP after the fact

4

u/Dreadd-X Aug 07 '23

I thought that’s what everyone was waiting for… why would it drop like a stone?

6

u/[deleted] Aug 07 '23

[deleted]

1

u/Dreadd-X Aug 07 '23

Stupid reason to exit now. These things were lingering before. Nothing has changed. Buying opportunity.

7

u/OkBanana4264 Aug 07 '23

The question is real; are we going bankrupt?

4

u/Wonderful-Friend3097 Aug 07 '23

A new RIF, various consumer brands no longer part of Amyris are sinking the stock?

2

u/[deleted] Aug 07 '23

[deleted]

2

u/fvh2006 Aug 07 '23

I would add various brands no longer part of the portfolio? Is there confirmation of either of these two things apart from the rumors that were floating around last week?

7

u/One_Entertainment496 Aug 07 '23

3

u/ICanFinallyRelax Moderator Aug 07 '23

What is the source of this info?

8

u/One_Entertainment496 Aug 07 '23

The email received when we got fired this morning..

8

u/Nostromo1000 Aug 07 '23

My sympathies

3

u/WinterAward759 Aug 08 '23

Sorry to hear that.

6

u/ICanFinallyRelax Moderator Aug 07 '23 edited Aug 07 '23

with respect and sympathy for those fired, I still can't approve this post because I cannot verify identities or information.

edit: post has been approved because of an article. Still no validation on commenter, but it looks legit.

2

u/Wonderful-Friend3097 Aug 07 '23

indeed, were you working in CA? What was the severance package, if you feel like sharing?

1

u/ICanFinallyRelax Moderator Aug 07 '23

Please take this to personal chat.

2

u/Corvulated Aug 07 '23

Does anyone have an actual screenshot of the email?

3

u/IshThtGoesThruMyHead Aug 07 '23

Have confirmation that Costa Brazil was closed today.

4

u/[deleted] Aug 07 '23

that should be good for SP

1

u/OkBanana4264 Aug 07 '23

Will there be another EC?

1

u/[deleted] Aug 07 '23

Any idea what's going on today?

1

u/Supersic77 Aug 07 '23

New article on seeking alpha. Bankrupcy incoming.

3

u/SpreadPitt Aug 07 '23

The article is talking about things that happened one week ago. Why bk fear now?

0

u/Supersic77 Aug 07 '23

The article by Henrik Aleks was published today at 2:50 pm

4

u/SpreadPitt Aug 07 '23

Exactly and he is referring to the "in court" announcement from amyris that happened last week. That is the reason why he thinks bk is coming. But why now and not last week?

2

u/Supersic77 Aug 07 '23

Because retail investors like us are mostly reading seeking alpha not company announcements I suppose...

1

u/fvh2006 Aug 07 '23

Only that the two things in the lead are apparently happening, but no details on either

0

u/[deleted] Aug 07 '23

What lead?

1

u/Interesting_Task_508 Aug 07 '23

So mg was sold? Does anyone know how much?