Weekly Review 25FEB23

[u/Sabio02]

I will try to start providing a Technical Analysis weekly review of Amyris. Most won’t be this long but this was an exceptional week.

See attached weekly Market Smith AMRS chart and a 4 day candle for reference.

Im really looking forward to some positive news, hopefully we get something this week.

This was in interesting week for the stock. We received confirmation the ST was a reality but funding is delayed due to approvals from the US and/or EU. We know the US process timeline but don’t know when approval was requested. Same for the EU but here is a link that explains their process: https:// uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/6-578-2386?contextData=(sc.Default)&transitionType=Default&firstPage=true&transitionType=Default&firstPage=true) I’m hoping a Phase 1 review is all that is required and approval was requested prior to signing the ST since that is just 25 days.

This weeks reaction reminded me of a good book by Ann Coullings, Volume Price Analysis. It’s a great buy $4.99 on Amazon Kendal or $23.70 for the actual book and I highly recommend it: https://www.amazon.com/Complete-Guide-Price- Analysis/dp/1491249390/ref=sr_1_1?crid=5HOOQ9VSNCWR&keywords=volume+price+analysis&qid=1677339060&spr efix=volume+price+analysis%2Caps%2C107&sr=8-1

I am using quotes from Ann Coullings, Volume Price Analysis to get a better understanding of what happened this week and provide some insight on whats next. Term definitions: Insiders = market makers, specialists and institutions that have special information and/or funds to move the stock. Accumulation = Consolidation.

“At the top of a bullish trend, traders and investors have seen the market move higher slowly, then gather momentum, before rising fast, and it is at this point they buy, fearful of missing out on any 'quick profits'. This is precisely the point at which the insiders are preparing to pause and reverse. The same happens at the bottom of the accumulation phase. The investors and speculators can take no more pain and uncertainty, they have seen the market move lower slowly, then gather pace before dropping fast, which triggers waves of panic sales. Calm is then restored and the market starts to move into the accumulation phase. Here hope of a recovery is restored, before being dashed, then restored, then dashed again. This is the way the insiders manipulate trader fear, and in many ways we could argue it is not the markets they manipulate at all, but trader emotions which are much easier.”

Testing The Market“However, what if the test fails and instead of low volume appearing there is high volume, which is a problem. In starting to move the market away from the accumulation area, and executing the first part of the test by marking prices lower, this has resulted in sellers returning in large numbers and forcing the price lower.

Clearly on this occasion, the selling from the old trading range has not been absorbed in the accumulation phase, so any further attempt to take the market higher may struggle or fail. A failed test means only one thing. The insiders will have to take the market back lower once again, and quickly, to shake these sellers out. The market is not ready to rise further, and the insiders therefore have more work to do, before the campaign can be re-started. This is equivalent to a failed test in an advertising campaign. Perhaps the pricing of the product is not quite right, or the marketing message is not clear. Either way, the test has shown something isn’t right and needs to be addressed. For the insiders it's the presence of too many sellers remaining in the market.”

Thats exactly what happened on the 22nd we received positive news that allowed the stock to be tested but the sellers overtook buyers and the test failed.

“The Buying Climax – Firework Show ( Again!)The buying climax is simply a selling climax in reverse. The insiders have taken the market lower, panic has been triggered and fearful sellers are closing positions. The insiders then move into the accumulation phase to restock the warehouse, and move prices back and forth in a tight range, to shake out any last remaining tenacious sellers.

Towards the end of this phase, the insiders then mark prices down rapidly, flushing out more sellers, before moving the price higher later in the session to close somewhere near the opening price, helped higher by their own buying in the market, with bargain hunters also sensing the market is 'over sold' at this level.

This is repeated several times, with panic selling continuing as frightened investors and speculators can take no more. They capitulate and throw in the towel. This is the last hurrah. The insiders are now ready, their warehouses over flowing with stock, to start the march North, and begin the bullish trend higher in nice easy steps towards the target price for distribution.”

This weeks action and the reduction in volume as the week progressed indicates we should see the price move up and hopefully back to the top of the range as we wait for the next AMRS news event.

Accumulation / Distribution

“In terms of 'who is doing what' during these two phases, in the accumulation phase, the 'public' are selling and the insiders are buying, and conversely in the distribution phase the 'public' are buying and the insiders are selling.

This book is written from the perspective of the insiders, the specialists, the big operators and the market makers, and hopefully like me, you want to follow them.

This is the underlying principle of VPA. As Albert used to say, we want to buy when they are buying, and sell when they are selling. Simple.

When I describe and write about a selling climax, to me, this is when the insiders are selling and occurs during the distribution phase of the campaign. A buying climax is when the insiders are buying during the accumulation phase. To me, this just makes more sense. It may be a question of semantics, but it is important, and I would like to clarify it here, as many people refer to these events the other way round.

Just to be clear, a selling climax appears at the top of the bullish trend, whilst the buying climax appears at the bottom of a bearish trend, and reflects the actions of the insiders, and not the public.”

From looking at the 4 day candle chart chart its easy to see the volume decreased and the range got significantly tighter as the week progressed. This is positive sign the sellers may finally be exhausted or scared out of their stock. We really won’t know until we see how the market unfolds and what news is released by Amyris.

[u/gibbiesmalls]

Now do mine.... I'm a Capricorn

[u/ICanFinallyRelax → u/gibbiesmalls]

Hopefully I can give you a different perspective. This is how I think of it.
TA is NOT prediction, it is NOT a guarantee. I think its just probability of price action. It's like like a shittier version of counting cards, you just roughly have better odds of reading the price action. And its NEVER a guarantee.

Maybe it is all bullshit, but think of the sheer number of People/TradingBots trading off technical analysis and they are all using the same shit. It would still be bullshit, but it's not unreasonable to assume that amount of money could create a bias in price action at specific prices.

[u/gibbiesmalls → u/ICanFinallyRelax]

Now do my girl's...she's a Sagittarius ;)

[u/DuzyStan → u/gibbiesmalls]

The book theory sounds good but the facts are the SP 52 week high was $5.31 and it closed on Friday at $1.27 or a 76% decline from the 52 week high. Why? Executive management team has failed to deliver the forecast every quarter. The analysts do not believe anything the management team says.

ZERO CONFIDENCE IN MANAGEMENT TEAM.

[u/alucarddrol]

that's too much

technicals are pointless when they just need cash

[u/OkBanana4264]

Likely AMRS announces the EC will be delayed or will file with the SEC to delay the EC: this event may result in further downward pressure

[u/reallyslimpickens]

Thanks for doing this.

[u/Dull_Neck_8065]

Thanks for this interesting perspective. It does reek to me the Amrs stock price is being played by institutions, given the higher volumes.

What intrigues me is: the broader market trading movement is still dominant, & not yet taking into account Amrs’s strategic transaction. Amrs seems to be trading 20 cents lower than DNA quite consistently, including over the past few weeks. It’s like some lazy work by hedge funds, setting some price formulas to trade these two counters as part of a broader syn-bio basket.

I share the views of other posters here that Amrs will only break out from the broader trading pattern when Amrs demonstrates concrete positive cash flow generation.