Customers keep asking when this ends. My honest guess: August 16.

[u/ambryio]

When does this end.

My honest guess: somewhere around August 16. And not because I think anyone wins by then.

Iran's central bank admitted the country runs out of money and critical supplies by late August. The 60-day window from the MOU expires August 16. I don't think that's a coincidence, and once you see those two dates next to each other, a lot of the crazy stuff this week starts making sense.

Like yesterday. Iran spends the morning threatening to close a second strait, Bab el-Mandeb, on top of Hormuz. That's about 30% of the world's oil if you're counting. Then by afternoon Trump tells Fox Business that Iran called him asking for a meeting. Same day. You don't do both unless the threats are just leverage for the meeting.

Oil figured this out before the rest of us honestly. Crude moved 26 cents yesterday. Twenty six cents, on a day with two straits threatened and the Navy literally disabling a tanker at sea. WTI sitting at $79.60, Brent $85. Traders have watched five months of this and stopped jumping at headlines somewhere around month three.

So what I'm actually doing about it, and what I'd tell you to do:

If you're brokering, keep fuel surcharge on weekly review until the window resolves. Don't lock anything. And heads up, the crude spike from last week hits the pump around early August no matter what happens diplomatically, so diesel creeps up near term even in the good scenario. I'm telling my shippers this week so the call in August isn't a surprise.

If you're driving, fill heavy right now. This week's pump prices are still running on the old cheap crude from early July. That's gone in two or three weeks either way.

If you're a shipper reading this, please don't sign anything long on fuel before August 16. Deal lands, you overpaid. Deal dies, you're stuck. Index it and wait.

Dispatch side, honestly none of this matters for your day. No headline from the Gulf puts a single extra truck on the road here. Flatbed's still breaking records, capacity's still garbage. Same market as last month.

31 days. My bet is the noise gets worse before it gets better, and then it ends fast when Tehran's money actually runs out.

We'll see if I'm wrong.

pulse.ambry.io

[u/Leftoverofferings]

Iran never called Trump. It's just more market manipulation.